市场“大战”美联储，这场抵抗会如何收场

华尔街见闻2022-08-05

在今年早些时候，美联储想要说服市场配合央行的货币政策，还远不像现在这么费力。然而仅仅半年之后，即便美联储发出数十年来最强烈的紧缩信号，市场依旧“我行我素”甚至助推美股刷新近年最佳表现。这导致美联储只好派出一位又一位高官开启车轮战，让他们直接对着市场疯狂“泼冷水”，高声“放鹰”。昨日这项任务轮到克利夫兰联储行长的Loretta Mester。媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要...

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精彩评论

财经梅逻辑
2022-08-06
财经梅逻辑
这篇文章没什么脑子
大亏货
2022-08-05
大亏货
等，不在乎这几个月，抄底是愚蠢的，等彻底明朗后再给仓位。底部这么贵，买不起，宁可在趋势中买回调，也不无脑抄底。
- 航天者Spark:
  阅
- 每有昵称:
  ，
- 長乐:
  😊
- 雨中漫步2021:
  赞赞赞
UC震惊部主编
2022-08-05
UC震惊部主编
阴跌半年了，给个月级别的小反弹不过分
大萌萌萌萌哒
2022-08-05
大萌萌萌萌哒
谁在抵抗？美股低点已过，再不可能回去了。
Mr.L19
2022-08-05
Mr.L19
谁在抵抗？你丫踏空了吧！

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Mester。媒体称，周四Mester在接受采访时发出警告称“需要进一步提高利率以缓解需求”，并且重申，她并没有看见任何衰退可以威胁到美联储的政策。此外她还强调称，加息速度“可能比我之前预计的还要快”：我目前认为利率可被酌情上调至4%以上......我认为坚持这个观点是合理的，我们会达到那里，我们会看到。她还补充道：利率将在今年和明年上半年继续上调，也许到那时我们会暂停，然后我们可以开始把利率降下来，但是现在很难设想到那么远。Mester还再次强调控制通胀的重要性。她认为在美联储下调利率之前，她需要看到通胀水平在数月中出现下降。总而言之，Mester的“鹰派”发言延续美联储的统一外宣观点，旨在告诫市场，不要低估他们抗击通胀的决心，不要再“唱反调”。但现在问题就是，市场真的会听吗？市场不再相信美联储市场与美联储之间的大战，7月第二次加息75基点就是“导火索”。在此之前，市场基本还能接受美联储所讲的故事。当去年的“通胀暂时论”被现实狠狠教育之后，在今年早些时候，美联储开始正视通胀压力。当时美联储告诉市场，控制通胀是眼下第一要务。而他们控制通胀的方式就是，通过提高利率和缩减资产负债表的“量化紧缩”政策来收紧金融环境，从而提高借贷成本，抑制投资和需求，消除助推通胀上行的“燃料”，在持续一段时间之后，最终实现物价平稳。其中，美联储需要通过市场来将货币政策传导至金融环境之中，之后再逐步传递至实体经济。由此可见，市场在其中的地位举足轻重。起初，市场接受了这套说辞。所以他们接受了债券价格下跌收益率飙升，接受了股票和加密货币市场被暴风袭击，接受了房地产市场出现放缓迹象，认为一切都是为了控制通胀。然而他们看到的结果是，美国6月CPI通胀上涨9.1%，再度刷新40年新高。美联储“通胀斗士”的声誉就这样一点点被消磨殆尽，市场不再相信美联储。因此当美联储再度超大幅度加息75基点之后，立刻引起了市场的“逆反心理”。市场拒绝再为美联储传递货币政策，他们开始押注在衰退阴霾面前，美联储将很快“屈服”，并在紧缩道路上“转向”，最快在9月会议上就将启动降息。在这种预期的指引下，资产价格开始飙升，美股大涨、美债收益率暴跌。到这个时候，市场欢欣鼓舞，认为他们已经拿下了这一局。然而他们可能没想到的是，他们抗争得越久，结局就会越惨烈。顽强抵抗 等来的可能只是一地鸡毛因为美联储不会放弃。当市场押注美联储“转向”，从而推高美股价格并压低美债收益率时，相当于放松了金融市场环境。而这导致的后果是，高企通胀因此被“火上浇油”，更多需求被激发出来，缓和了经济衰退风险，抵消了美联储为控制通胀所作出的努力。而且讽刺的是，这也有悖于他们自身的逻辑立场。市场之所以预计美联储可能“转向”，就是认为美联储将难以抵挡衰退压力。然而他们自身努力推高美股的行动，却是在缓和这种风险。总之，如果市场继续拒绝为美联储传递货币政策，那么美联储将不得不在紧缩道路上飞速前进，通过继续加息来打击市场，直到市场屈服。而这个过程注定是惨烈的。因为市场的抵抗行为会进一步推高通胀，进一步让通胀变得根深蒂固，导致美联储的加息幅度将远超预期。而等到市场终于无力抵抗，愿意和美联储达成合作时，一切只会变得非常糟糕。而且抵抗时间越长，情况越糟糕。到时候，已经屈服的市场再没有可以和美联储谈判的权利，摆在他们面前的或许只有这种惨淡结局。顽强抵抗，等来的可能只是一地鸡毛。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":685562017,"gmtCreate":1659718128041,"gmtModify":1659718128041,"author":{"id":"3576160273978157","authorId":"3576160273978157","name":"财经梅逻辑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1590a19d3a2b7b48028bb5789a533454","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"这篇文章没什么脑子","listText":"这篇文章没什么脑子","text":"这篇文章没什么脑子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685562017","repostId":1120012174,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":685580049,"gmtCreate":1659710894186,"gmtModify":1659711547298,"author":{"id":"4113349255696412","authorId":"4113349255696412","name":"大亏货","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaeeec5c047caa0b39340be71fdf19f0","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"等，不在乎这几个月，抄底是愚蠢的，等彻底明朗后再给仓位。底部这么贵，买不起，宁可在趋势中买回调，也不无脑抄底。","listText":"等，不在乎这几个月，抄底是愚蠢的，等彻底明朗后再给仓位。底部这么贵，买不起，宁可在趋势中买回调，也不无脑抄底。","text":"等，不在乎这几个月，抄底是愚蠢的，等彻底明朗后再给仓位。底部这么贵，买不起，宁可在趋势中买回调，也不无脑抄底。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685580049","repostId":1120012174,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7582369,"gmtCreate":1659713002891,"gmtModify":1659713006518,"authorId":3491499683313675,"author":{"id":3491499683313675,"authorId":3491499683313675,"name":"航天者Spark","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bde2839422f80e1314cc86a5158e22f","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者：发表过3篇及以上精华帖，且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.11.29","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2007},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"阅","text":"阅","html":"阅"},{"id":7582363,"gmtCreate":1659712691738,"gmtModify":1659712696255,"authorId":4114309218322020,"author":{"id":4114309218322020,"authorId":4114309218322020,"name":"每有昵称","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a773a6eb3187049ab6a039398c2ae03","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"，","text":"，","html":"，"},{"id":7582362,"gmtCreate":1659712656595,"gmtModify":1659712661180,"authorId":3534308765331303,"author":{"id":3534308765331303,"authorId":3534308765331303,"name":"長乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7300e78b907cf4351b20882e2419653a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":685580049,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"😊","text":"😊","html":"😊"},{"id":7582346,"gmtCreate":1659712305925,"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