物农启梦
2022-08-07
👌🏻👌🏻
@期权小班长:
别慌,马斯克说通胀过了,未来18个月会温和衰退
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2456e3f0329a9e0e74f90290abbe73c1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">为何非农数据如此强劲?根据美国劳工统计局统计,就业岗位普遍录得增长,主要是休闲和酒店、专业和商业服务、医疗保健行业的就业岗位增长显著。</p><p>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">$优步(UBER)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DASH\">$DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$</a> 等服务行业的财报可以看出服务消费向好。</p><p>真正重要的是8月10日也就是下周周三公布的7月CPI数据。但从原油走势来看,7月CPI毫无悬念的因为油价下降而产生回落,下周周三后市场大概率结束回调继续上涨。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a420b0a23270560f78952dbac3d8f5\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">如果你觉得油价不靠谱,那么马斯克说通胀见顶你总该信了吧?不光见顶,之后18个月还会有温和衰退。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5adcd730c032d57a3578e7670c77e2\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">那么你们是信市场的临时反应还是信马斯克?</p><h4>平仓时机</h4><p>这周观察一个有意思的现象是大单自己也把握不好平仓时机,所以平仓时机还是各凭本事。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$爱彼迎(ABNB)$</a> 财报公布前一晚有人豪掷200买行权价为114当周到期的put,果然第二天财报大跌7%。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" 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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34a420b0a23270560f78952dbac3d8f5\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">如果你觉得油价不靠谱,那么马斯克说通胀见顶你总该信了吧?不光见顶,之后18个月还会有温和衰退。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5adcd730c032d57a3578e7670c77e2\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">那么你们是信市场的临时反应还是信马斯克?</p><h4>平仓时机</h4><p>这周观察一个有意思的现象是大单自己也把握不好平仓时机,所以平仓时机还是各凭本事。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABNB\">$爱彼迎(ABNB)$</a> 财报公布前一晚有人豪掷200买行权价为114当周到期的put,果然第二天财报大跌7%。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3b42e88d24900f9151e2b7ce43df8a\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"485\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6525e231018f4b300d77973a01517ec7\" tg-width=\"1140\" tg-height=\"2080\">然而这哥们开盘没平仓,可能想等股价再跌一跌。但本周大盘实在太强了,所以只能含恨在2.88平仓,不仅没赚钱,反而还亏了几十万。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23ba8bf44fcbf946cc39643c9b1684ba\" tg-width=\"1116\" tg-height=\"1688\"></p><h4>关于佩老太的put,最后补充</h4><p>虽然周二推断那些可疑的put是佩洛西或者她周围人买的,但我依然抱有一丝期望,在想这些远期期权是不是说明还有后手?是不是长线?也许不是她,只是另外有人根据美国高层的作风进行的长期风控布局?</p><p>不会吧,不会真的落地后就平仓了吧?</p><p>然后周三扫描出了平仓异动让我彻底死心,好吧,没别人了,就是你,佩洛西。</p><p>后续想了想还是肤浅了,佩洛西买深度价内可能不仅出于对期权的风险控制,更深一层的考虑可能是将行权价格范围做广,这样不会被人看出动机和止损线。</p><p>另外想到一件更尴尬的事,从芯片法案拍板到访问台湾邀请台积电落地美国,这一系列一气呵成的动作不禁让我觉得可能佩洛西这次出行目的就是想把世界第一的晶圆工厂搬到自己家,然后就可以更好的炒股了。</p><p>我也承认这个想法实在是太有点农夫揣测皇帝用金锄头的意思了,不过似乎也没有什么违和感。</p><p>小家子气,实在是太小家子气了。</p></body></html>","text":"7月非农公布,大超预期。美国7月非农就业人口超预期增加52.8万人,是市场预期25万人的两倍有余。数据公布后市场直线跳水,75bps加息概率大涨。为何非农数据如此强劲?根据美国劳工统计局统计,就业岗位普遍录得增长,主要是休闲和酒店、专业和商业服务、医疗保健行业的就业岗位增长显著。 从$优步(UBER)$ $DoorDash, Inc.(DASH)$ 等服务行业的财报可以看出服务消费向好。 真正重要的是8月10日也就是下周周三公布的7月CPI数据。但从原油走势来看,7月CPI毫无悬念的因为油价下降而产生回落,下周周三后市场大概率结束回调继续上涨。如果你觉得油价不靠谱,那么马斯克说通胀见顶你总该信了吧?不光见顶,之后18个月还会有温和衰退。那么你们是信市场的临时反应还是信马斯克? 平仓时机 这周观察一个有意思的现象是大单自己也把握不好平仓时机,所以平仓时机还是各凭本事。 $爱彼迎(ABNB)$ 财报公布前一晚有人豪掷200买行权价为114当周到期的put,果然第二天财报大跌7%。然而这哥们开盘没平仓,可能想等股价再跌一跌。但本周大盘实在太强了,所以只能含恨在2.88平仓,不仅没赚钱,反而还亏了几十万。 关于佩老太的put,最后补充 虽然周二推断那些可疑的put是佩洛西或者她周围人买的,但我依然抱有一丝期望,在想这些远期期权是不是说明还有后手?是不是长线?也许不是她,只是另外有人根据美国高层的作风进行的长期风控布局? 不会吧,不会真的落地后就平仓了吧? 然后周三扫描出了平仓异动让我彻底死心,好吧,没别人了,就是你,佩洛西。 后续想了想还是肤浅了,佩洛西买深度价内可能不仅出于对期权的风险控制,更深一层的考虑可能是将行权价格范围做广,这样不会被人看出动机和止损线。 另外想到一件更尴尬的事,从芯片法案拍板到访问台湾邀请台积电落地美国,这一系列一气呵成的动作不禁让我觉得可能佩洛西这次出行目的就是想把世界第一的晶圆工厂搬到自己家,然后就可以更好的炒股了。 我也承认这个想法实在是太有点农夫揣测皇帝用金锄头的意思了,不过似乎也没有什么违和感。 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