张士平
2022-08-09
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@期权小班长:
佩老太,阿里上亿的巨额put是你买的吧?
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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> 跌,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a> 涨,我也没当回事,就去睡觉了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06e4a9be22c44e44d70c7786b2f6370b\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1181\"></p><h4>2</h4><p>早上起床,看到有些交易员朋友开始布局空单,琢磨了一下觉得自己遗漏了什么……</p><blockquote> <b>资金量级肯定都是千万级别起步,而且肯定提早布置</b> \n</blockquote><p>我的表情就此凝固:确实有一种情况符合。</p><p>你们还记得我提过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/682434237\" target=\"_blank\">FOMC当天反常的期权异动</a>吗?明明是从预期到市场走向都是鸽派看涨,但不知道为何当天会有人豪掷几千万甚至上亿去购买远期深度价内put。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc972f3fe600eb2a805a87b2990f579c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"1827\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7555709658fb237bfcd01701580cebd\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1765\"></p><p>这些大单当时令我百思不得其解,现在看来,就是相关知情人士利用FOMC的来掩盖下单。如果是平时发生如此巨额的天量异动,一定会被金融媒体争相报道并且揣测解读,但是发生在重要的货币政策公布日,只会普通的解读成针对加息预期的远期布局。</p><p>而且只能是阿里,如果换成台积电,哪怕是在FOMC当天下单都会感觉非常突兀。台积电突增上亿空单,明眼人都知道要出事。</p><p>当天被下单天量put的不止有阿里,还有很多别的美股。其他股票put空单不太确定,但阿里put空单大概率是佩老太干的。</p><p>和俄乌冲突不同,打不打的起来,只有普京知道,但据我肤浅的认知普京没有买期权的爱好。</p><p>而去不去台湾,只有佩洛西和她身边安排行程的人知道,据我肤浅的认知,佩洛西很喜欢买期权。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f7eec96e34d7dc975c5afecf1b80c60\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2068\"></p><h4>3</h4><p>炒股如下棋,我们以为巨额空单是为了FOMC后市预期布的局,岂不知这只是下一步行动的烟雾弹。已知信息不决定走向,未知的才最关键。</p><p>正如昨日的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a> 财报预期,可以得出结论这季度业绩很差可以看空。但财报公布后公司祭出了收购预期的大杀器,股价不跌反涨。可以看到昨晚PINS期权大单几乎都是call。无法借助烟雾弹掩饰的落子,越晚下越好。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66626af7307adf015446d8f841efff66\" tg-width=\"1169\" tg-height=\"1792\"></p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><h4>1</h4><p>这事儿要从昨晚说起。</p><p>睡前扫了一眼异动,发现两单做空台积电的put,总金额都在200万左右。如果是下注赌财报那也是挺多的了,但如果是押注地缘局势动荡,只能说这个持仓就是小孩过家家,说明不了任何问题。</p><p>如此重要的地缘事件,<b>资金量级肯定都是千万级别起步,而且肯定是提早布置,</b>哪有当天下单的?百万只能说意思意思,做个情绪波动。每次台湾有事,惯例<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> 跌,<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GFS\">$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$</a> 涨,我也没当回事,就去睡觉了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06e4a9be22c44e44d70c7786b2f6370b\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1181\"></p><h4>2</h4><p>早上起床,看到有些交易员朋友开始布局空单,琢磨了一下觉得自己遗漏了什么……</p><blockquote> <b>资金量级肯定都是千万级别起步,而且肯定提早布置</b> \n</blockquote><p>我的表情就此凝固:确实有一种情况符合。</p><p>你们还记得我提过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/682434237\" target=\"_blank\">FOMC当天反常的期权异动</a>吗?明明是从预期到市场走向都是鸽派看涨,但不知道为何当天会有人豪掷几千万甚至上亿去购买远期深度价内put。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc972f3fe600eb2a805a87b2990f579c\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"1827\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7555709658fb237bfcd01701580cebd\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1765\"></p><p>这些大单当时令我百思不得其解,现在看来,就是相关知情人士利用FOMC的来掩盖下单。如果是平时发生如此巨额的天量异动,一定会被金融媒体争相报道并且揣测解读,但是发生在重要的货币政策公布日,只会普通的解读成针对加息预期的远期布局。</p><p>而且只能是阿里,如果换成台积电,哪怕是在FOMC当天下单都会感觉非常突兀。台积电突增上亿空单,明眼人都知道要出事。</p><p>当天被下单天量put的不止有阿里,还有很多别的美股。其他股票put空单不太确定,但阿里put空单大概率是佩老太干的。</p><p>和俄乌冲突不同,打不打的起来,只有普京知道,但据我肤浅的认知普京没有买期权的爱好。</p><p>而去不去台湾,只有佩洛西和她身边安排行程的人知道,据我肤浅的认知,佩洛西很喜欢买期权。</p><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f7eec96e34d7dc975c5afecf1b80c60\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"2068\"></p><h4>3</h4><p>炒股如下棋,我们以为巨额空单是为了FOMC后市预期布的局,岂不知这只是下一步行动的烟雾弹。已知信息不决定走向,未知的才最关键。</p><p>正如昨日的<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$</a> 财报预期,可以得出结论这季度业绩很差可以看空。但财报公布后公司祭出了收购预期的大杀器,股价不跌反涨。可以看到昨晚PINS期权大单几乎都是call。无法借助烟雾弹掩饰的落子,越晚下越好。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66626af7307adf015446d8f841efff66\" tg-width=\"1169\" tg-height=\"1792\"></p><p></p></body></html>","text":"1 这事儿要从昨晚说起。 睡前扫了一眼异动,发现两单做空台积电的put,总金额都在200万左右。如果是下注赌财报那也是挺多的了,但如果是押注地缘局势动荡,只能说这个持仓就是小孩过家家,说明不了任何问题。 如此重要的地缘事件,资金量级肯定都是千万级别起步,而且肯定是提早布置,哪有当天下单的?百万只能说意思意思,做个情绪波动。每次台湾有事,惯例$台积电(TSM)$ 跌,$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$ 涨,我也没当回事,就去睡觉了。 2 早上起床,看到有些交易员朋友开始布局空单,琢磨了一下觉得自己遗漏了什么…… 资金量级肯定都是千万级别起步,而且肯定提早布置 我的表情就此凝固:确实有一种情况符合。 你们还记得我提过FOMC当天反常的期权异动吗?明明是从预期到市场走向都是鸽派看涨,但不知道为何当天会有人豪掷几千万甚至上亿去购买远期深度价内put。 这些大单当时令我百思不得其解,现在看来,就是相关知情人士利用FOMC的来掩盖下单。如果是平时发生如此巨额的天量异动,一定会被金融媒体争相报道并且揣测解读,但是发生在重要的货币政策公布日,只会普通的解读成针对加息预期的远期布局。 而且只能是阿里,如果换成台积电,哪怕是在FOMC当天下单都会感觉非常突兀。台积电突增上亿空单,明眼人都知道要出事。 当天被下单天量put的不止有阿里,还有很多别的美股。其他股票put空单不太确定,但阿里put空单大概率是佩老太干的。 和俄乌冲突不同,打不打的起来,只有普京知道,但据我肤浅的认知普京没有买期权的爱好。 而去不去台湾,只有佩洛西和她身边安排行程的人知道,据我肤浅的认知,佩洛西很喜欢买期权。 3 炒股如下棋,我们以为巨额空单是为了FOMC后市预期布的局,岂不知这只是下一步行动的烟雾弹。已知信息不决定走向,未知的才最关键。 正如昨日的$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 财报预期,可以得出结论这季度业绩很差可以看空。但财报公布后公司祭出了收购预期的大杀器,股价不跌反涨。可以看到昨晚PINS期权大单几乎都是call。无法借助烟雾弹掩饰的落子,越晚下越好。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685339040","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["09988","PINS","GFS","BABA","TSM"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1575,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/684070809"}
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