梦玥
2022-06-27
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (Asia)
@期权小班长：
抄底伯克希尔
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLMAIN\">$WTI原油主连 2208(CLmain)$</a> 上周下跌8%，美股石油公司比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">$雪佛龙(CVX)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a> 跌幅甚至达到15%～20%。</p><p>油价的下跌让美股市场看到了通胀缓和的希望，这就是我总结这两天的反弹逻辑。</p><p>如果油价持续下跌，那么美股将继续企稳，目前油价主要有三个利空因素：</p><ol> \n <li>美联储大幅加息，市场逐步计价衰退提前，拖累大类资产表现</li> \n <li>拜登将于7月中访问沙特，市场解读为欧佩克或在为期两年半的减产框架结束后自由增产，缓解供应问题</li> \n <li>俄罗斯原油产量有望进一步提升</li> \n</ol><p>我认为第二点会成为近期牵制油价的主要动因。民主党不能光靠加息，还要解决高昂的原油价格，进一步遏制通胀，不然恐怕难以赢得接下来的中期选举。</p><p>对于目前的市场行情总体维持观望，不过在一轮大跌后还想捡一些物美价廉的便宜货。用股票筛选器，我查了一下市值1000亿以上，PE<10的股票，筛选结果如下：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a2cd679bada4e8d666fd71e9a72b5c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99ff75787f6d01647caa225690b68007\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">20只股票涵盖石油、银行、制药、大盘ETF，其中最亮眼的一只股票，莫过于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.B\">$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$</a> ，现在市盈率只有7了，处于历史低位。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632a4f561fb2ffe5ec258971929a7493\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">最后的午餐可能拍不起，但如此便宜的伯克希尔不容错过，我选择做行权价为250的sell put。</p><p>sell put推荐表：</p><table> \n <colgroup></colgroup> \n <tbody> \n <tr> \n <td>标的代码</td> \n <td>年化收益</td> \n <td>到期日</td> \n <td>行权价</td> \n <td>权利金</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BRK.B%2020220708%20250.0%20PUT\">$BRK.B 20220708 250.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>14%</td> \n <td>2022/7/8</td> \n <td>250</td> \n <td>1.86</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ATVI%2020220715%2072.5%20PUT\">$ATVI 20220715 72.5 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>26%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>72.5</td> \n <td>0.97</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VMW%2020220715%20115.0%20PUT\">$VMW 20220715 115.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>40%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>115</td> \n <td>2.3</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SIMO%2020220715%2080.0%20PUT\">$SIMO 20220715 80.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>33%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>80</td> \n <td>1.4</td> \n </tr> \n </tbody> \n</table><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>本轮加息过后美股再次迎来阶段性大底，虽然感觉大盘没有跌透，但也可以理解这两天的反弹逻辑。</p><p>本轮加息75基点的主要诱因是通胀继续走高，而让通胀居高不下的核心因素就是能源价格。如果原油价格继续走高，那么可以想见6月CPI数据依然无法降低，那么美联储还会采取更为“符合市场预期“的加息手段。</p><p>美股走势和能源价格就这样绑定在了一起。</p><p>但比较诡异的是，加息过后，不光是美股大跌，原油也发生了暴跌。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLMAIN\">$WTI原油主连 2208(CLmain)$</a> 上周下跌8%，美股石油公司比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">$雪佛龙(CVX)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">$西方石油(OXY)$</a> 跌幅甚至达到15%～20%。</p><p>油价的下跌让美股市场看到了通胀缓和的希望，这就是我总结这两天的反弹逻辑。</p><p>如果油价持续下跌，那么美股将继续企稳，目前油价主要有三个利空因素：</p><ol> \n <li>美联储大幅加息，市场逐步计价衰退提前，拖累大类资产表现</li> \n <li>拜登将于7月中访问沙特，市场解读为欧佩克或在为期两年半的减产框架结束后自由增产，缓解供应问题</li> \n <li>俄罗斯原油产量有望进一步提升</li> \n</ol><p>我认为第二点会成为近期牵制油价的主要动因。民主党不能光靠加息，还要解决高昂的原油价格，进一步遏制通胀，不然恐怕难以赢得接下来的中期选举。</p><p>对于目前的市场行情总体维持观望，不过在一轮大跌后还想捡一些物美价廉的便宜货。用股票筛选器，我查了一下市值1000亿以上，PE<10的股票，筛选结果如下：<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a2cd679bada4e8d666fd71e9a72b5c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99ff75787f6d01647caa225690b68007\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">20只股票涵盖石油、银行、制药、大盘ETF，其中最亮眼的一只股票，莫过于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.B\">$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$</a> ，现在市盈率只有7了，处于历史低位。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/632a4f561fb2ffe5ec258971929a7493\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">最后的午餐可能拍不起，但如此便宜的伯克希尔不容错过，我选择做行权价为250的sell put。</p><p>sell put推荐表：</p><table> \n <colgroup></colgroup> \n <tbody> \n <tr> \n <td>标的代码</td> \n <td>年化收益</td> \n <td>到期日</td> \n <td>行权价</td> \n <td>权利金</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BRK.B%2020220708%20250.0%20PUT\">$BRK.B 20220708 250.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>14%</td> \n <td>2022/7/8</td> \n <td>250</td> \n <td>1.86</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ATVI%2020220715%2072.5%20PUT\">$ATVI 20220715 72.5 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>26%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>72.5</td> \n <td>0.97</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VMW%2020220715%20115.0%20PUT\">$VMW 20220715 115.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>40%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>115</td> \n <td>2.3</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SIMO%2020220715%2080.0%20PUT\">$SIMO 20220715 80.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>33%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>80</td> \n <td>1.4</td> \n </tr> \n </tbody> \n</table><p></p></body></html>","text":"本轮加息过后美股再次迎来阶段性大底，虽然感觉大盘没有跌透，但也可以理解这两天的反弹逻辑。 本轮加息75基点的主要诱因是通胀继续走高，而让通胀居高不下的核心因素就是能源价格。如果原油价格继续走高，那么可以想见6月CPI数据依然无法降低，那么美联储还会采取更为“符合市场预期“的加息手段。 美股走势和能源价格就这样绑定在了一起。 但比较诡异的是，加息过后，不光是美股大跌，原油也发生了暴跌。$WTI原油主连 2208(CLmain)$ 上周下跌8%，美股石油公司比如$雪佛龙(CVX)$ $西方石油(OXY)$ 跌幅甚至达到15%～20%。 油价的下跌让美股市场看到了通胀缓和的希望，这就是我总结这两天的反弹逻辑。 如果油价持续下跌，那么美股将继续企稳，目前油价主要有三个利空因素： 美联储大幅加息，市场逐步计价衰退提前，拖累大类资产表现 拜登将于7月中访问沙特，市场解读为欧佩克或在为期两年半的减产框架结束后自由增产，缓解供应问题 俄罗斯原油产量有望进一步提升 我认为第二点会成为近期牵制油价的主要动因。民主党不能光靠加息，还要解决高昂的原油价格，进一步遏制通胀，不然恐怕难以赢得接下来的中期选举。 对于目前的市场行情总体维持观望，不过在一轮大跌后还想捡一些物美价廉的便宜货。用股票筛选器，我查了一下市值1000亿以上，PE<10的股票，筛选结果如下：20只股票涵盖石油、银行、制药、大盘ETF，其中最亮眼的一只股票，莫过于$伯克希尔B(BRK.B)$ ，现在市盈率只有7了，处于历史低位。最后的午餐可能拍不起，但如此便宜的伯克希尔不容错过，我选择做行权价为250的sell put。 sell put推荐表： 标的代码 年化收益 到期日 行权价 权利金 $BRK.B 20220708 250.0 PUT$ 14% 2022/7/8 250 1.86 $ATVI 20220715 72.5 PUT$ 26% 2022/7/15 72.5 0.97 $VMW 20220715 115.0 PUT$ 40% 2022/7/15 115 2.3 $SIMO 20220715 80.0 PUT$ 33% 2022/7/15 80 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