赌怪陈刀仔
2022-06-30
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@期权小班长：
行权价越来越高的理想call大单
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 出现百万看涨大单<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX%2020220722%20205.0%20CALL\">$NFLX 20220722 205.0 CALL$</a> ，到日期刚好是在财报公布那一周。</p><p>奈飞这一季度财报依然很悲观，预计还将流失200万订户。反过来也就是说如果财报不会更差，那么股价大概率看涨，而且下半年有比较重棒的引流剧作《猎魔人》，预计公司给出的前瞻指引会较为乐观。</p><p>但是你再仔细想想，如果连奈飞都能看涨了，那买别的不是更好？但也说不好，现在的市场还挺尊老爱幼的，谁跌的多谁先涨。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0559a07945136116cba117779fea8768\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">然后又发现好几只逻辑类似的异动：</p><ul> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNOW%2020220819%20120.0%20CALL\">$SNOW 20220819 120.0 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GILD%2020220916%2062.5%20CALL\">$GILD 20220916 62.5 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PYPL%2020220729%2085.0%20CALL\">$PYPL 20220729 85.0 CALL$</a></li> \n</ul><p>再来谈谈<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> ，自从5月31日发布了三大新能源政策之后，新能源板块就变成了领涨龙头。可惜当时专注美联储CPI没有太关注这个政策带来的后续影响，自然也就错过了这一波大涨。</p><p>目前理想这个价格不太好下手，期权异动也难以找到比较靠谱的目标价，行权价跟着股价一起水涨船高。</p><p>比如目前能追溯到的6月10日的百万大单，call目标价是32美元<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/LI%2020230120%2032.0%20CALL\">$LI 20230120 32.0 CALL$</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05fad89e1dbfe9395546a606bb6fd13\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">而6月15日，行权价上升至了38美元<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/LI%2020221216%2038.0%20CALL\">$LI 20221216 38.0 CALL$</a> ，这也是我认为比较合理的目标价格。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/603eaebf54bc0f8679363264d67fafee\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">但到了昨天，行权价已提升至了50美元<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/LI%2020230120%2050.0%20CALL\">$LI 20230120 50.0 CALL$</a> ，虽然从理想的横盘时间来看达到这个价格也不算夸张，不过我还是觉得目前股价上涨速度过快了。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cf70991f2474882983faad147296253\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">sell put推荐表：</p><table> \n <colgroup></colgroup> \n <tbody> \n <tr> \n <td>标的代码</td> \n <td>年化收益</td> \n <td>到期日</td> \n <td>行权价</td> \n <td>权利金</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BRK.B%2020220708%20250.0%20PUT\">$BRK.B 20220708 250.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>6%</td> \n <td>2022/7/8</td> \n <td>250</td> \n <td>0.96</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ATVI%2020220715%2072.5%20PUT\">$ATVI 20220715 72.5 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>12%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>72.5</td> \n <td>0.56</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VMW%2020220715%20115.0%20PUT\">$VMW 20220715 115.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>31%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>115</td> \n <td>2.35</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SIMO%2020220715%2080.0%20PUT\">$SIMO 20220715 80.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>36%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>80</td> \n <td>1.9</td> \n </tr> \n </tbody> \n</table><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>还有两周就要到财报季了，在各种数据披露前市场情绪整体积极。比如上半年的财报差生<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 出现百万看涨大单<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX%2020220722%20205.0%20CALL\">$NFLX 20220722 205.0 CALL$</a> ，到日期刚好是在财报公布那一周。</p><p>奈飞这一季度财报依然很悲观，预计还将流失200万订户。反过来也就是说如果财报不会更差，那么股价大概率看涨，而且下半年有比较重棒的引流剧作《猎魔人》，预计公司给出的前瞻指引会较为乐观。</p><p>但是你再仔细想想，如果连奈飞都能看涨了，那买别的不是更好？但也说不好，现在的市场还挺尊老爱幼的，谁跌的多谁先涨。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0559a07945136116cba117779fea8768\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">然后又发现好几只逻辑类似的异动：</p><ul> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SNOW%2020220819%20120.0%20CALL\">$SNOW 20220819 120.0 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/GILD%2020220916%2062.5%20CALL\">$GILD 20220916 62.5 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/PYPL%2020220729%2085.0%20CALL\">$PYPL 20220729 85.0 CALL$</a></li> \n</ul><p>再来谈谈<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> ，自从5月31日发布了三大新能源政策之后，新能源板块就变成了领涨龙头。可惜当时专注美联储CPI没有太关注这个政策带来的后续影响，自然也就错过了这一波大涨。</p><p>目前理想这个价格不太好下手，期权异动也难以找到比较靠谱的目标价，行权价跟着股价一起水涨船高。</p><p>比如目前能追溯到的6月10日的百万大单，call目标价是32美元<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/LI%2020230120%2032.0%20CALL\">$LI 20230120 32.0 CALL$</a><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a05fad89e1dbfe9395546a606bb6fd13\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">而6月15日，行权价上升至了38美元<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/LI%2020221216%2038.0%20CALL\">$LI 20221216 38.0 CALL$</a> ，这也是我认为比较合理的目标价格。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/603eaebf54bc0f8679363264d67fafee\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">但到了昨天，行权价已提升至了50美元<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/LI%2020230120%2050.0%20CALL\">$LI 20230120 50.0 CALL$</a> ，虽然从理想的横盘时间来看达到这个价格也不算夸张，不过我还是觉得目前股价上涨速度过快了。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cf70991f2474882983faad147296253\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">sell put推荐表：</p><table> \n <colgroup></colgroup> \n <tbody> \n <tr> \n <td>标的代码</td> \n <td>年化收益</td> \n <td>到期日</td> \n <td>行权价</td> \n <td>权利金</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BRK.B%2020220708%20250.0%20PUT\">$BRK.B 20220708 250.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>6%</td> \n <td>2022/7/8</td> \n <td>250</td> \n <td>0.96</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ATVI%2020220715%2072.5%20PUT\">$ATVI 20220715 72.5 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>12%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>72.5</td> \n <td>0.56</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/VMW%2020220715%20115.0%20PUT\">$VMW 20220715 115.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>31%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>115</td> \n <td>2.35</td> \n </tr> \n <tr> \n <td><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SIMO%2020220715%2080.0%20PUT\">$SIMO 20220715 80.0 PUT$</a></td> \n <td>36%</td> \n <td>2022/7/15</td> \n <td>80</td> \n <td>1.9</td> \n </tr> \n </tbody> \n</table><p></p></body></html>","text":"还有两周就要到财报季了，在各种数据披露前市场情绪整体积极。比如上半年的财报差生$奈飞(NFLX)$ 出现百万看涨大单$NFLX 20220722 205.0 CALL$ ，到日期刚好是在财报公布那一周。 奈飞这一季度财报依然很悲观，预计还将流失200万订户。反过来也就是说如果财报不会更差，那么股价大概率看涨，而且下半年有比较重棒的引流剧作《猎魔人》，预计公司给出的前瞻指引会较为乐观。 但是你再仔细想想，如果连奈飞都能看涨了，那买别的不是更好？但也说不好，现在的市场还挺尊老爱幼的，谁跌的多谁先涨。然后又发现好几只逻辑类似的异动： $SNOW 20220819 120.0 CALL$ $GILD 20220916 62.5 CALL$ $PYPL 20220729 85.0 CALL$ 再来谈谈$理想汽车(LI)$ ，自从5月31日发布了三大新能源政策之后，新能源板块就变成了领涨龙头。可惜当时专注美联储CPI没有太关注这个政策带来的后续影响，自然也就错过了这一波大涨。 目前理想这个价格不太好下手，期权异动也难以找到比较靠谱的目标价，行权价跟着股价一起水涨船高。 比如目前能追溯到的6月10日的百万大单，call目标价是32美元$LI 20230120 32.0 CALL$而6月15日，行权价上升至了38美元$LI 20221216 38.0 CALL$ ，这也是我认为比较合理的目标价格。但到了昨天，行权价已提升至了50美元$LI 20230120 50.0 CALL$ ，虽然从理想的横盘时间来看达到这个价格也不算夸张，不过我还是觉得目前股价上涨速度过快了。sell put推荐表： 标的代码 年化收益 到期日 行权价 权利金 $BRK.B 20220708 250.0 PUT$ 6% 2022/7/8 250 0.96 $ATVI 20220715 72.5 PUT$ 12% 2022/7/15 72.5 0.56 $VMW 20220715 115.0 PUT$ 31% 2022/7/15 115 2.35 $SIMO 20220715 80.0 PUT$ 36% 2022/7/15 80 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