bianjianbao
2022-06-10
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@价值投资为王:
台积电喊破喉咙也难挽救半导体颓势!
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这篇文章不错,转发给大家看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680184229","repostId":680064844,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":680064844,"tweetId":"680064844","gmtCreate":1654684156090,"gmtModify":1704860100882,"author":{"id":21347731130544,"idStr":"21347731130544","authorId":21347731130544,"authorIdStr":"21347731130544","name":"价值投资为王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89ffffc59ff9ac9cb9cb74f596418d44","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者:发表过3篇及以上精华帖,且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.11.23","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":45136,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b61925855fe4d7d322837d29369e3e9a","width":"632","height":"344"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b132cb2669dcb9342adf775189431fcf","width":"632","height":"332"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80aea4fd8d7bf343708d19856057211a","width":"632","height":"183"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065a8c4b07bffee0e8505f40c4e3ae0e","width":"632","height":"302"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac39c4f1df5aa5355a509425f1347f10","width":"632","height":"328"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfea5d533258b47d52afb57f1a1e189","width":"632","height":"360"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b61925855fe4d7d322837d29369e3e9a","width":"632","height":"344"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b132cb2669dcb9342adf775189431fcf","width":"632","height":"332"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80aea4fd8d7bf343708d19856057211a","width":"632","height":"183"}],"title":"台积电喊破喉咙也难挽救半导体颓势!","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天,台积电开股东大会,带来不少好消息,比如:</p><p>(1)台积电预计今年营收增速达到或超过30%;</p><p>(2)通胀对台积电影响不大,虽然手机和电脑需求不妙,但汽车芯片需求大超预期;</p><p>(3)二季度毛利率预计达到58%,创历史新高!</p><p>(4)台积电2023年资本开支超400亿美元,预计未来在5G及高效能计算趋势推动下,进入结构性高增长期!</p><p>结合台积电、AMD、ASML等半导体公司一季报,这几家龙头,一直在释放基本面强劲的信号,试图打消资本市场的担忧,挽救颓靡的股价。</p><p>然而,无论公司发怎样的好消息,股价都不为所动,比如今日盘前,台积电涨幅仅0.2%,阿斯麦、应用材料等半导体设备厂甚至是下跌。</p><p>看到这些,投资者自然会纳闷,半导体咋就不涨呢?</p><p>首先,基本面强劲,这不可能是假的了,所以,基本面没问题。</p><p>因此,应该还是估值惹的祸。</p><p>假设台积电2022年营收增速高达30%,则将创下2010年以来的新记录:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac39c4f1df5aa5355a509425f1347f10\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"328\"></p><p>但别忘了,自己的估值也处于近10年来的高位:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfea5d533258b47d52afb57f1a1e189\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"360\"></p><p>其他几个芯片巨头,如英伟达、AMD和阿斯麦,这3家公司,2022年的增速没有惊喜,要么没给指引,要么指引与去年4季报给的一样。</p><p>但估值,个顶个的处于历史高段,如阿斯麦:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b61925855fe4d7d322837d29369e3e9a\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"344\"></p><p>按照台积电2023年资本开支400亿美元计算,实际上相比2022年没啥增长:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b132cb2669dcb9342adf775189431fcf\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"332\"></p><p>要知道,台积电可是阿斯麦大大大客户,一家占比,估摸着得有30%-40%:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80aea4fd8d7bf343708d19856057211a\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"183\"></p><p>由此来看,台积电明年至少400亿美元的资本开支,对阿斯麦来说,算不上好消息,甚至有点利空了!</p><p>同理,这对设备厂应用材料也不是好消息。</p><p>无论如何,指望台积电激活半导体板块是不太可能了,半导体下行周期,手机和电脑领域最惨,而像台积电这种掌握先进工艺的卡脖子企业,行业只要不是大衰退,收入就不会受影响,毕竟5纳米工艺,以及今年的3纳米,上游客户都得抢着订产能!</p><p>而先进工艺(7nm+5nm)现在占台积电收入的比重高达50%:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065a8c4b07bffee0e8505f40c4e3ae0e\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"302\"></p><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">$应用材料(AMAT)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天,台积电开股东大会,带来不少好消息,比如:</p><p>(1)台积电预计今年营收增速达到或超过30%;</p><p>(2)通胀对台积电影响不大,虽然手机和电脑需求不妙,但汽车芯片需求大超预期;</p><p>(3)二季度毛利率预计达到58%,创历史新高!</p><p>(4)台积电2023年资本开支超400亿美元,预计未来在5G及高效能计算趋势推动下,进入结构性高增长期!</p><p>结合台积电、AMD、ASML等半导体公司一季报,这几家龙头,一直在释放基本面强劲的信号,试图打消资本市场的担忧,挽救颓靡的股价。</p><p>然而,无论公司发怎样的好消息,股价都不为所动,比如今日盘前,台积电涨幅仅0.2%,阿斯麦、应用材料等半导体设备厂甚至是下跌。</p><p>看到这些,投资者自然会纳闷,半导体咋就不涨呢?</p><p>首先,基本面强劲,这不可能是假的了,所以,基本面没问题。</p><p>因此,应该还是估值惹的祸。</p><p>假设台积电2022年营收增速高达30%,则将创下2010年以来的新记录:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac39c4f1df5aa5355a509425f1347f10\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"328\"></p><p>但别忘了,自己的估值也处于近10年来的高位:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfea5d533258b47d52afb57f1a1e189\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"360\"></p><p>其他几个芯片巨头,如英伟达、AMD和阿斯麦,这3家公司,2022年的增速没有惊喜,要么没给指引,要么指引与去年4季报给的一样。</p><p>但估值,个顶个的处于历史高段,如阿斯麦:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b61925855fe4d7d322837d29369e3e9a\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"344\"></p><p>按照台积电2023年资本开支400亿美元计算,实际上相比2022年没啥增长:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b132cb2669dcb9342adf775189431fcf\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"332\"></p><p>要知道,台积电可是阿斯麦大大大客户,一家占比,估摸着得有30%-40%:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80aea4fd8d7bf343708d19856057211a\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"183\"></p><p>由此来看,台积电明年至少400亿美元的资本开支,对阿斯麦来说,算不上好消息,甚至有点利空了!</p><p>同理,这对设备厂应用材料也不是好消息。</p><p>无论如何,指望台积电激活半导体板块是不太可能了,半导体下行周期,手机和电脑领域最惨,而像台积电这种掌握先进工艺的卡脖子企业,行业只要不是大衰退,收入就不会受影响,毕竟5纳米工艺,以及今年的3纳米,上游客户都得抢着订产能!</p><p>而先进工艺(7nm+5nm)现在占台积电收入的比重高达50%:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/065a8c4b07bffee0e8505f40c4e3ae0e\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"302\"></p><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">$应用材料(AMAT)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"今天,台积电开股东大会,带来不少好消息,比如: (1)台积电预计今年营收增速达到或超过30%; (2)通胀对台积电影响不大,虽然手机和电脑需求不妙,但汽车芯片需求大超预期; (3)二季度毛利率预计达到58%,创历史新高! (4)台积电2023年资本开支超400亿美元,预计未来在5G及高效能计算趋势推动下,进入结构性高增长期! 结合台积电、AMD、ASML等半导体公司一季报,这几家龙头,一直在释放基本面强劲的信号,试图打消资本市场的担忧,挽救颓靡的股价。 然而,无论公司发怎样的好消息,股价都不为所动,比如今日盘前,台积电涨幅仅0.2%,阿斯麦、应用材料等半导体设备厂甚至是下跌。 看到这些,投资者自然会纳闷,半导体咋就不涨呢? 首先,基本面强劲,这不可能是假的了,所以,基本面没问题。 因此,应该还是估值惹的祸。 假设台积电2022年营收增速高达30%,则将创下2010年以来的新记录: 但别忘了,自己的估值也处于近10年来的高位: 其他几个芯片巨头,如英伟达、AMD和阿斯麦,这3家公司,2022年的增速没有惊喜,要么没给指引,要么指引与去年4季报给的一样。 但估值,个顶个的处于历史高段,如阿斯麦: 按照台积电2023年资本开支400亿美元计算,实际上相比2022年没啥增长: 要知道,台积电可是阿斯麦大大大客户,一家占比,估摸着得有30%-40%: 由此来看,台积电明年至少400亿美元的资本开支,对阿斯麦来说,算不上好消息,甚至有点利空了! 同理,这对设备厂应用材料也不是好消息。 无论如何,指望台积电激活半导体板块是不太可能了,半导体下行周期,手机和电脑领域最惨,而像台积电这种掌握先进工艺的卡脖子企业,行业只要不是大衰退,收入就不会受影响,毕竟5纳米工艺,以及今年的3纳米,上游客户都得抢着订产能! 而先进工艺(7nm+5nm)现在占台积电收入的比重高达50%: $台积电(TSM)$ $阿斯麦(ASML)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $AMD(AMD)$ $应用材料(AMAT)$","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/680064844","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["AMAT","NVDA","TSM","ASML","AMD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1437,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1919,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/680184229"}
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