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@期权小班长：82%概率加息75基点，然而多空战况依然焦灼

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<ul> \n <li>9月加息75点到300-325概率82%，100点概率18%。</li> \n <li>11月22日加息75点到375-400概率60.4%，50点是27.6%，100点是11.9%。</li> \n <li>12月14日加息50点到425-450概率46.7%。</li> \n</ul> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bd70bf878f4d7160f0afe785d4a6275\" tg-width=\"1734\" tg-height=\"996\"></p> <p>利率决议当天走势可以参考：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/661939741\" target=\"_blank\">利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？</a></p> <p>说一下昨天的大单。大盘ETF出现put大单平仓，前期止盈，非常稳重的操作。主要的大单交易还是那几个方向：价差，call， put。</p> <p>其中价差是重仓策略，put和call都是相对轻仓，可能是觉得赔率合适。反弹的话空间很大，而下跌就会去测试6月低点。</p> <p>目前很多个股走势和大盘偏离，个股可以作为参考，但我认为现在大盘方向&gt;个股，具体可以参考周一文章：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/661027608\" target=\"_blank\">1亿put大单看跌！市场尚未就加息路径达成明确共识</a>。机构都还没有明确的方向性，我们随大流做跨式或者价差就可以了。</p> <p>个股期权依然是以跨式为主，但半导体，金融和医药权重股有call大单。</p> <p>其中特斯拉有好几个近期看涨大单，如图</p> <ul> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020221007%20330.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20221007 330.0 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020220930%20320.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20220930 320.0 CALL$</a></li> \n</ul> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9aa06c5c9404b602d6b351d37c7e25b\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1482\">TSM，JNJ和JPM大单看涨，这三只的大单都是日历策略，重点放在12月。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fee7f5669fce935defd562dda9780ed5\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"449\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb4863ecdf1e43578d1184345c48588\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"425\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828f17c43aea308edac6754405d7956c\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"478\"></p> <p>感谢虎友长期支持，没想到在老虎收获了这么多粉丝。我平时比较忙，有时候文章发的比较晚，思考还是做个集中交流的地方，对期权感兴趣也愿意分享的朋友欢迎+ discord：https://discord.gg/UHdAWpnD</p> <p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储利率预测：</p> <ul> \n <li>9月加息75点到300-325概率82%，100点概率18%。</li> \n <li>11月22日加息75点到375-400概率60.4%，50点是27.6%，100点是11.9%。</li> \n <li>12月14日加息50点到425-450概率46.7%。</li> \n</ul> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bd70bf878f4d7160f0afe785d4a6275\" tg-width=\"1734\" tg-height=\"996\"></p> <p>利率决议当天走势可以参考：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/661939741\" target=\"_blank\">利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？</a></p> <p>说一下昨天的大单。大盘ETF出现put大单平仓，前期止盈，非常稳重的操作。主要的大单交易还是那几个方向：价差，call， put。</p> <p>其中价差是重仓策略，put和call都是相对轻仓，可能是觉得赔率合适。反弹的话空间很大，而下跌就会去测试6月低点。</p> <p>目前很多个股走势和大盘偏离，个股可以作为参考，但我认为现在大盘方向&gt;个股，具体可以参考周一文章：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/661027608\" target=\"_blank\">1亿put大单看跌！市场尚未就加息路径达成明确共识</a>。机构都还没有明确的方向性，我们随大流做跨式或者价差就可以了。</p> <p>个股期权依然是以跨式为主，但半导体，金融和医药权重股有call大单。</p> <p>其中特斯拉有好几个近期看涨大单，如图</p> <ul> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020221007%20330.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20221007 330.0 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020220930%20320.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20220930 320.0 CALL$</a></li> \n</ul> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9aa06c5c9404b602d6b351d37c7e25b\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1482\">TSM，JNJ和JPM大单看涨，这三只的大单都是日历策略，重点放在12月。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fee7f5669fce935defd562dda9780ed5\" tg-width=\"1079\" tg-height=\"449\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deb4863ecdf1e43578d1184345c48588\" tg-width=\"1054\" tg-height=\"425\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828f17c43aea308edac6754405d7956c\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"478\"></p> <p>感谢虎友长期支持，没想到在老虎收获了这么多粉丝。我平时比较忙，有时候文章发的比较晚，思考还是做个集中交流的地方，对期权感兴趣也愿意分享的朋友欢迎+ discord：https://discord.gg/UHdAWpnD</p> <p></p></body></html>","text":"美联储利率预测： 9月加息75点到300-325概率82%，100点概率18%。 11月22日加息75点到375-400概率60.4%，50点是27.6%，100点是11.9%。 12月14日加息50点到425-450概率46.7%。 利率决议当天走势可以参考：利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？ 说一下昨天的大单。大盘ETF出现put大单平仓，前期止盈，非常稳重的操作。主要的大单交易还是那几个方向：价差，call， put。 其中价差是重仓策略，put和call都是相对轻仓，可能是觉得赔率合适。反弹的话空间很大，而下跌就会去测试6月低点。 目前很多个股走势和大盘偏离，个股可以作为参考，但我认为现在大盘方向>个股，具体可以参考周一文章：1亿put大单看跌！市场尚未就加息路径达成明确共识。机构都还没有明确的方向性，我们随大流做跨式或者价差就可以了。 个股期权依然是以跨式为主，但半导体，金融和医药权重股有call大单。 其中特斯拉有好几个近期看涨大单，如图 $TSLA 20221007 330.0 CALL$ $TSLA 20220930 320.0 CALL$ TSM，JNJ和JPM大单看涨，这三只的大单都是日历策略，重点放在12月。 感谢虎友长期支持，没想到在老虎收获了这么多粉丝。我平时比较忙，有时候文章发的比较晚，思考还是做个集中交流的地方，对期权感兴趣也愿意分享的朋友欢迎+ discord：https://discord.gg/UHdAWpnD","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661331025","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["TSLA","TSM","JPM"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":997,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1376,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/668343678"}