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@价值投资为王：半导体大底已现！

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<p>第一，&nbsp;半导体是周期行业，3-4年为一轮。</p> <p>半导体的周期性主要来自供需错配，当市场需求高涨时，芯片设计企业会加大向制造业下订单，但晶圆厂扩产能需要调试设备，耗时较久，待产能提高之后，电子消费市场可能开始走弱，进而引发设计企业砍单。</p> <p>下图为全球半导体市场季度销售额，可以看出有明显的周期性：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed1918a3382cb7d105600dea566ed24\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"326\"></p> <p>第二，&nbsp;如何判断周期低点？</p> <p>中信证券给出了4种指标，最佳指标为库存，其次是股价跌幅和估值情况。</p> <p>先看库存，拿费城半导体指数SOX和行业库存做对比，两者有明显的负相关性，即库存顶点对应sox指数底部。</p> <p>根据行业及上市公司表述，中信证券认为今年三季度半导体库存已经见顶：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/314b58a59da4a9c9a703c755a1abe97f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"194\"></p> <p>再来看跌幅，从此轮周期顶点计算，SOX指数下跌44%，逼近历次下行周期：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c64695e0663321772ff4e33b137f791\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"287\"></p> <p>其次是估值临近历史低位，如目前 SOX（费城半导体指数）PE(NTM)已跌至14X附近，正在接近2018/2019年周期底部的水平：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40a956e466125ea2a42bd6c2aa41e7a9\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"287\"></p> <p>最后，虽然中信证券认为当下是周期底部，但此次下行周期是库存高位叠加需求下滑，考虑到美联储疯狂加息，势必会伤害经济，进而对需求产生不利影响，如2022年pc市场销量下滑20%，预期2023年将下滑5%-10%。</p> <p>考虑到基本面仍在下行，因此，预期半导体股价反弹斜率将不及上一轮周期。</p> <p>中信证券的研报和我此前的观点一致，拿英伟达库存和股价走势来看，2020财年一季度（对应自然年为2019年4月28日的季报），英伟达库存开始降低，随后股价开启反弹：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f40b24f5e1a929754b16b3474694bd01\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"288\"></p> <p>半导体的周期性极为规律且行业前景一直在曲折中前进，因此，布局半导体最佳的时间即在行业最低迷时买入，行业沸腾时卖出，中信证券推荐的标的如下，供参考：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff838352fd4f53ae0bffd4652e8ade5c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"320\"></p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">$应用材料(AMAT)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">$安森美半导体(ON)$</a>&nbsp;</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>看到中信证券一篇关于半导体的研报——《美股半导体周期运行到哪里了？》，感觉不错，核心要点提炼给大家。</p> <p>第一，&nbsp;半导体是周期行业，3-4年为一轮。</p> <p>半导体的周期性主要来自供需错配，当市场需求高涨时，芯片设计企业会加大向制造业下订单，但晶圆厂扩产能需要调试设备，耗时较久，待产能提高之后，电子消费市场可能开始走弱，进而引发设计企业砍单。</p> <p>下图为全球半导体市场季度销售额，可以看出有明显的周期性：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ed1918a3382cb7d105600dea566ed24\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"326\"></p> <p>第二，&nbsp;如何判断周期低点？</p> <p>中信证券给出了4种指标，最佳指标为库存，其次是股价跌幅和估值情况。</p> <p>先看库存，拿费城半导体指数SOX和行业库存做对比，两者有明显的负相关性，即库存顶点对应sox指数底部。</p> <p>根据行业及上市公司表述，中信证券认为今年三季度半导体库存已经见顶：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/314b58a59da4a9c9a703c755a1abe97f\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"194\"></p> <p>再来看跌幅，从此轮周期顶点计算，SOX指数下跌44%，逼近历次下行周期：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c64695e0663321772ff4e33b137f791\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"287\"></p> <p>其次是估值临近历史低位，如目前 SOX（费城半导体指数）PE(NTM)已跌至14X附近，正在接近2018/2019年周期底部的水平：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40a956e466125ea2a42bd6c2aa41e7a9\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"287\"></p> <p>最后，虽然中信证券认为当下是周期底部，但此次下行周期是库存高位叠加需求下滑，考虑到美联储疯狂加息，势必会伤害经济，进而对需求产生不利影响，如2022年pc市场销量下滑20%，预期2023年将下滑5%-10%。</p> <p>考虑到基本面仍在下行，因此，预期半导体股价反弹斜率将不及上一轮周期。</p> <p>中信证券的研报和我此前的观点一致，拿英伟达库存和股价走势来看，2020财年一季度（对应自然年为2019年4月28日的季报），英伟达库存开始降低，随后股价开启反弹：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f40b24f5e1a929754b16b3474694bd01\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"288\"></p> <p>半导体的周期性极为规律且行业前景一直在曲折中前进，因此，布局半导体最佳的时间即在行业最低迷时买入，行业沸腾时卖出，中信证券推荐的标的如下，供参考：</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff838352fd4f53ae0bffd4652e8ade5c\" tg-width=\"632\" tg-height=\"320\"></p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">$应用材料(AMAT)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">$安森美半导体(ON)$</a>&nbsp;</p></body></html>","text":"看到中信证券一篇关于半导体的研报——《美股半导体周期运行到哪里了？》，感觉不错，核心要点提炼给大家。 第一， 半导体是周期行业，3-4年为一轮。 半导体的周期性主要来自供需错配，当市场需求高涨时，芯片设计企业会加大向制造业下订单，但晶圆厂扩产能需要调试设备，耗时较久，待产能提高之后，电子消费市场可能开始走弱，进而引发设计企业砍单。 下图为全球半导体市场季度销售额，可以看出有明显的周期性： 第二， 如何判断周期低点？ 中信证券给出了4种指标，最佳指标为库存，其次是股价跌幅和估值情况。 先看库存，拿费城半导体指数SOX和行业库存做对比，两者有明显的负相关性，即库存顶点对应sox指数底部。 根据行业及上市公司表述，中信证券认为今年三季度半导体库存已经见顶： 再来看跌幅，从此轮周期顶点计算，SOX指数下跌44%，逼近历次下行周期： 其次是估值临近历史低位，如目前 SOX（费城半导体指数）PE(NTM)已跌至14X附近，正在接近2018/2019年周期底部的水平： 最后，虽然中信证券认为当下是周期底部，但此次下行周期是库存高位叠加需求下滑，考虑到美联储疯狂加息，势必会伤害经济，进而对需求产生不利影响，如2022年pc市场销量下滑20%，预期2023年将下滑5%-10%。 考虑到基本面仍在下行，因此，预期半导体股价反弹斜率将不及上一轮周期。 中信证券的研报和我此前的观点一致，拿英伟达库存和股价走势来看，2020财年一季度（对应自然年为2019年4月28日的季报），英伟达库存开始降低，随后股价开启反弹： 半导体的周期性极为规律且行业前景一直在曲折中前进，因此，布局半导体最佳的时间即在行业最低迷时买入，行业沸腾时卖出，中信证券推荐的标的如下，供参考： $英伟达(NVDA)$ $台积电(TSM)$ $美国超微公司(AMD)$ $应用材料(AMAT)$ $安森美半导体(ON)$","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664639573","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","AMAT","TSM","ON","AMD"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1373,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":65,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/664713014"}