股神周杰伦
2023-03-24
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@期权小班长：
信贷收紧，远离特别烧钱的行业
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c137c6c0bcd0cf8bbf53faf1950359b1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">点阵图略微上移的后果就是市场会时不时会受到鹰派官员讲话影响震荡，希望大家不会对此大惊小怪。</p><p>不过看着市场兴高采烈的样子，我想说，信贷收紧的后果由谁来承担呢？什么时候体现呢？</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLF\">$金融ETF(XLF)$</a> 信贷收紧并不是一件好事，不过从做空大单来看，第一阶段的大单还是选择了平仓。新开仓大单偏投机：</p><ul><li>buy<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/XLF%2020230406%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20230406 31.0 PUT$</a></li></ul><p>后面还要继续跟进，今年银行应该很不好过，不过纳入监管的当下空头也缺少爆破机会。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92e1d25f77c3139d50bcc299b9bdb25\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRE\">$区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW(KRE)$</a> 地区银行的风险比大银行更高，空头还是押注这一篮子里可能会出几个坏鸡蛋。</p><ul><li>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KRE%2020230421%2038.0%20PUT\">$KRE 20230421 38.0 PUT$</a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f4ce8d61aa65bdfd3b0d894deb807c3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">$第一共和银行(FRC)$</a> 虽然其他地区银行可能还会出问题，但纳入监管的FRC再次暴雷概率就比较低了，可能基于这样的理由有人大量sell put。不买call的原因也很简单，虽然frc可能没问题，但其他小银行暴雷一样可以把股价拖下水。</p><ul><li>sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/FRC%2020230519%2012.5%20PUT\">$FRC 20230519 12.5 PUT$</a></li></ul><p>要是钱多可以搞一下，从整体风险角度我觉得地区银行不值得碰。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4025d58b12cda4fe7f17f7fd8cfddd2\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XBI\">$SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI)$</a> 信贷收紧，烧钱的项目今年就难过了。哪些项目烧钱？比如药品研发：</p><ul><li>sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/XBI%2020240119%2075.0%20CALL\">$XBI 20240119 75.0 CALL$</a></li></ul><p>权当参考，这行权价我觉得太激进了。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39d12a6eee903a152adf52526b701e8e\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 跨式省钱版，多了一个sell put，如果你即看涨又看跌同时又觉得跨式贵可以参考一下这组策略。</p><ul><li>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230915%20290.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20230915 290.0 CALL$</a> </li><li>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230915%20260.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20230915 260.0 PUT$</a> </li><li>sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230915%20220.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20230915 220.0 PUT$</a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f8b23c1c0ac9670d45f6a96f2560cf\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> 如果你是小空头同时还想抄底可以参考这个策略：</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020230519%20100.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20230519 100.0 PUT$ </a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20230616 85.0 PUT$</a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e53da44b5bb73228268f07b90d1e63\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">还记得我在《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/627246258\" target=\"_blank\">今年买看跌，不做对冲真的会亏</a>》里介绍过一组逆天策略：</p><p>sell call设置成360很有远见的。虽然我也很有疑问，他为什么会在感觉到英伟达向360突破的情况下在低位做空。考虑到3月8号下的单，估计是在赌银行板块崩溃传染到半导体。</p><p>不过目前看来，这对组合反过来交易也很合理。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d20f8305b11435f23e56d9b781c0f1b\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">目前我对半导体板块是放弃的。从第一季度表现来看，强势股上涨经常突破预期，而下跌往往达不到预期。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>这次FOMC会议结束后的市场动向十分令人困惑，很有既视感。美元大跌，市场大涨(后来跌了)，我还看了一眼日历，今天是3月23号，不是2月2号啊，怎么行情基本差不多？</p><p>这次美联储如期加息25基点，点阵图略微上调，所以不出意外的经济预期中的PCE预期也上调了。不过通告删除了持续加息的说法。上调通胀预期却不再坚持加息，只能说明地区银行的挤兑问题确实给美联储制造了一点小小的震撼。而新闻会的记者们也已经不在意通胀问题了，显然银行业危机议题更重要。</p><p>不得不说加息25基点是一个从各方来看都没毛病的决定。加息贯彻抗击通胀的决心，同时让市场放心现在的金融体系还没有脆弱到必须降息的程度。鲍威尔本来想加50基点，不过过去两周事件导致的信贷收紧，也类似于加了25基点，里外里约等于还是加了50基点。这种说法可能也会让鹰派委员满意。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c137c6c0bcd0cf8bbf53faf1950359b1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">点阵图略微上移的后果就是市场会时不时会受到鹰派官员讲话影响震荡，希望大家不会对此大惊小怪。</p><p>不过看着市场兴高采烈的样子，我想说，信贷收紧的后果由谁来承担呢？什么时候体现呢？</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLF\">$金融ETF(XLF)$</a> 信贷收紧并不是一件好事，不过从做空大单来看，第一阶段的大单还是选择了平仓。新开仓大单偏投机：</p><ul><li>buy<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/XLF%2020230406%2031.0%20PUT\">$XLF 20230406 31.0 PUT$</a></li></ul><p>后面还要继续跟进，今年银行应该很不好过，不过纳入监管的当下空头也缺少爆破机会。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e92e1d25f77c3139d50bcc299b9bdb25\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KRE\">$区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW(KRE)$</a> 地区银行的风险比大银行更高，空头还是押注这一篮子里可能会出几个坏鸡蛋。</p><ul><li>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KRE%2020230421%2038.0%20PUT\">$KRE 20230421 38.0 PUT$</a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f4ce8d61aa65bdfd3b0d894deb807c3\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">$第一共和银行(FRC)$</a> 虽然其他地区银行可能还会出问题，但纳入监管的FRC再次暴雷概率就比较低了，可能基于这样的理由有人大量sell put。不买call的原因也很简单，虽然frc可能没问题，但其他小银行暴雷一样可以把股价拖下水。</p><ul><li>sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/FRC%2020230519%2012.5%20PUT\">$FRC 20230519 12.5 PUT$</a></li></ul><p>要是钱多可以搞一下，从整体风险角度我觉得地区银行不值得碰。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4025d58b12cda4fe7f17f7fd8cfddd2\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XBI\">$SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI)$</a> 信贷收紧，烧钱的项目今年就难过了。哪些项目烧钱？比如药品研发：</p><ul><li>sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/XBI%2020240119%2075.0%20CALL\">$XBI 20240119 75.0 CALL$</a></li></ul><p>权当参考，这行权价我觉得太激进了。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39d12a6eee903a152adf52526b701e8e\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> 跨式省钱版，多了一个sell put，如果你即看涨又看跌同时又觉得跨式贵可以参考一下这组策略。</p><ul><li>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230915%20290.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20230915 290.0 CALL$</a> </li><li>buy <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230915%20260.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20230915 260.0 PUT$</a> </li><li>sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020230915%20220.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20230915 220.0 PUT$</a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04f8b23c1c0ac9670d45f6a96f2560cf\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$美国超微公司(AMD)$</a> 如果你是小空头同时还想抄底可以参考这个策略：</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020230519%20100.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20230519 100.0 PUT$ </a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$AMD 20230616 85.0 PUT$</a></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3e53da44b5bb73228268f07b90d1e63\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">还记得我在《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/627246258\" target=\"_blank\">今年买看跌，不做对冲真的会亏</a>》里介绍过一组逆天策略：</p><p>sell call设置成360很有远见的。虽然我也很有疑问，他为什么会在感觉到英伟达向360突破的情况下在低位做空。考虑到3月8号下的单，估计是在赌银行板块崩溃传染到半导体。</p><p>不过目前看来，这对组合反过来交易也很合理。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d20f8305b11435f23e56d9b781c0f1b\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">目前我对半导体板块是放弃的。从第一季度表现来看，强势股上涨经常突破预期，而下跌往往达不到预期。</p></body></html>","text":"这次FOMC会议结束后的市场动向十分令人困惑，很有既视感。美元大跌，市场大涨(后来跌了)，我还看了一眼日历，今天是3月23号，不是2月2号啊，怎么行情基本差不多？ 这次美联储如期加息25基点，点阵图略微上调，所以不出意外的经济预期中的PCE预期也上调了。不过通告删除了持续加息的说法。上调通胀预期却不再坚持加息，只能说明地区银行的挤兑问题确实给美联储制造了一点小小的震撼。而新闻会的记者们也已经不在意通胀问题了，显然银行业危机议题更重要。 不得不说加息25基点是一个从各方来看都没毛病的决定。加息贯彻抗击通胀的决心，同时让市场放心现在的金融体系还没有脆弱到必须降息的程度。鲍威尔本来想加50基点，不过过去两周事件导致的信贷收紧，也类似于加了25基点，里外里约等于还是加了50基点。这种说法可能也会让鹰派委员满意。点阵图略微上移的后果就是市场会时不时会受到鹰派官员讲话影响震荡，希望大家不会对此大惊小怪。 不过看着市场兴高采烈的样子，我想说，信贷收紧的后果由谁来承担呢？什么时候体现呢？ $金融ETF(XLF)$ 信贷收紧并不是一件好事，不过从做空大单来看，第一阶段的大单还是选择了平仓。新开仓大单偏投机： buy$XLF 20230406 31.0 PUT$ 后面还要继续跟进，今年银行应该很不好过，不过纳入监管的当下空头也缺少爆破机会。$区域银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW(KRE)$ 地区银行的风险比大银行更高，空头还是押注这一篮子里可能会出几个坏鸡蛋。 buy $KRE 20230421 38.0 PUT$ $第一共和银行(FRC)$ 虽然其他地区银行可能还会出问题，但纳入监管的FRC再次暴雷概率就比较低了，可能基于这样的理由有人大量sell put。不买call的原因也很简单，虽然frc可能没问题，但其他小银行暴雷一样可以把股价拖下水。 sell $FRC 20230519 12.5 PUT$ 要是钱多可以搞一下，从整体风险角度我觉得地区银行不值得碰。$SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI)$ 信贷收紧，烧钱的项目今年就难过了。哪些项目烧钱？比如药品研发： sell $XBI 20240119 75.0 CALL$ 权当参考，这行权价我觉得太激进了。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 跨式省钱版，多了一个sell put，如果你即看涨又看跌同时又觉得跨式贵可以参考一下这组策略。 buy $NVDA 20230915 290.0 CALL$ buy $NVDA 20230915 260.0 PUT$ sell $NVDA 20230915 220.0 PUT$ $美国超微公司(AMD)$ 如果你是小空头同时还想抄底可以参考这个策略： $AMD 20230519 100.0 PUT$ $AMD 20230616 85.0 PUT$ 还记得我在《今年买看跌，不做对冲真的会亏》里介绍过一组逆天策略： sell call设置成360很有远见的。虽然我也很有疑问，他为什么会在感觉到英伟达向360突破的情况下在低位做空。考虑到3月8号下的单，估计是在赌银行板块崩溃传染到半导体。 不过目前看来，这对组合反过来交易也很合理。目前我对半导体板块是放弃的。从第一季度表现来看，强势股上涨经常突破预期，而下跌往往达不到预期。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/659075792","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","KRE%2020230421%2038.0%20PUT","NVDA%2020230915%20220.0%20PUT","AMD%2020230519%20100.0%20PUT","NVDA%2020230915%20260.0%20PUT","XBI%2020240119%2075.0%20CALL","AMD%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT","FRC%2020230519%2012.5%20PUT","XLF","XLF%2020230406%2031.0%20PUT","AMD","FRC","KRE","NVDA%2020230915%20290.0%20CALL","XBI"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2181,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1531,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/659904436"}
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