大赢家马斯克
2023-03-31
再降,大杀传统汽车一片
大摩:中国电池去库存仍需时日,特斯拉价格还得降
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17:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"大摩:中国电池去库存仍需时日,特斯拉价格还得降","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2323808942","media":"金十数据","summary":"中国电动车电池库存一路攀升,大摩认为,过剩库存会影响全球电动车市场,欧美电动车或须继续降价。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>中国电动车电池库存一路攀升,大摩认为,过剩库存会影响全球电动车市场,欧美电动车或须继续降价。</blockquote><p>在全球汽车行业互联互通的大背景下,<strong>中国电动汽车价格战可能会加剧电动汽车市场的供需失衡。</strong>供应的可替代性也会影响到中国以外的市场。大摩预计,<strong>欧盟和美国的电动汽车或将进一步降价。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的中国电池团队指出,截至2月底,国内电动汽车电池库存一直上升至152GWh左右。</p><p><em>中国电池库存追踪</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973e43af7593ffeb53327320afacaf6b\" tg-width=\"932\" tg-height=\"658\"/></p><p>电动汽车价值链的主要环节目前都在应对电池库存量过大的问题,该团队认为,<strong>去库存仍需时日。</strong></p><p>自2022年12月初以来,中国碳酸锂现货价格跌了约二分之一,意味着每辆电动汽车的原材料价格降了数千美元。</p><p>中国是全球最大的汽车市场,也是迄今为止最大的电动汽车市场,多年来一直是全球汽车市场的一块肥肉。</p><p>虽然<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>没有披露,但大摩<strong>估计中国市场占特斯拉利润的30%至40%。</strong>随着时间推移,由于竞争加剧,以及特斯拉在中国以外的销售增量增长,这一比例正在下降。</p><p>尽管中国轻型汽车(目前)尚未在美国市场销售,但大摩相信,<strong>电池供应链过剩的问题未来可能会以某种方式转移到中国以外的市场,从而加剧竞争。</strong></p><p>大摩认为,尽管特斯拉或能在23年第一季度实现起码20%的汽车毛利率目标,<strong>但如果降价竞争持续,全球银行业危机导致经济增长放缓,并对消费者产生连锁影响,特斯拉要在随后几个季度保持该目标可能有难度。</strong></p><p>大摩给与特斯拉<strong>“增持”</strong>评级,设定220美元目标价。目标价由6个部分组成:(1)特斯拉汽车核心业务估值为每股117美元,假设到2030年,特斯拉生产7.2万辆汽车,WACC为9.0%,2030年EBITDA退出倍数为12倍,EBITDA退出利润率为20.0%。(2)假设到2030年,有42.5万量特斯拉上路,每英里价格为1.7美元,则其估值为9美元。(3)特斯拉作为第三方供应商,估值为每股29美元。4)能源业务估值为26美元/股,5)保险业务估值为8美元/股,6)网络服务估值为32美元,MAU为189万,到2030年,假设ARPU为80美元,折现率为50%。</p><p><strong>上行风险:</strong>服务营收披露;FSD附加率提高;新电池大大降低成本;新车型推出(Cybertruck,多厢式货车,Semi);为第三方制造电池;地理渗透和新产能增长。</p><p><strong>下行风险:</strong>来自竞争对手(传统OEM /中国国产汽车/大型科技公司)的压力;工厂数量增加带来的执行风险;服务运营得不到市场认可,附加率和单位收入(RPU)低于预期;中国方面风险;稀释;估值。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩:中国电池去库存仍需时日,特斯拉价格还得降\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-31 17:00 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109415&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>中国电动车电池库存一路攀升,大摩认为,过剩库存会影响全球电动车市场,欧美电动车或须继续降价。在全球汽车行业互联互通的大背景下,中国电动汽车价格战可能会加剧电动汽车市场的供需失衡。供应的可替代性也会影响到中国以外的市场。大摩预计,欧盟和美国的电动汽车或将进一步降价。摩根士丹利的中国电池团队指出,截至2月底,国内电动汽车电池库存一直上升至152GWh左右。中国电池库存追踪电动汽车价值链的主要环节目前都...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109415&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d3bdae1a30f31081f447e6bc84a7e0","relate_stocks":{"LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","BK4555":"新能源车","LU0098860793.USD":"FRANKLIN INCOME \"A\" INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc 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ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0823411888.USD":"法巴消费创新基金 Cap"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=109415&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2323808942","content_text":"中国电动车电池库存一路攀升,大摩认为,过剩库存会影响全球电动车市场,欧美电动车或须继续降价。在全球汽车行业互联互通的大背景下,中国电动汽车价格战可能会加剧电动汽车市场的供需失衡。供应的可替代性也会影响到中国以外的市场。大摩预计,欧盟和美国的电动汽车或将进一步降价。摩根士丹利的中国电池团队指出,截至2月底,国内电动汽车电池库存一直上升至152GWh左右。中国电池库存追踪电动汽车价值链的主要环节目前都在应对电池库存量过大的问题,该团队认为,去库存仍需时日。自2022年12月初以来,中国碳酸锂现货价格跌了约二分之一,意味着每辆电动汽车的原材料价格降了数千美元。中国是全球最大的汽车市场,也是迄今为止最大的电动汽车市场,多年来一直是全球汽车市场的一块肥肉。虽然特斯拉没有披露,但大摩估计中国市场占特斯拉利润的30%至40%。随着时间推移,由于竞争加剧,以及特斯拉在中国以外的销售增量增长,这一比例正在下降。尽管中国轻型汽车(目前)尚未在美国市场销售,但大摩相信,电池供应链过剩的问题未来可能会以某种方式转移到中国以外的市场,从而加剧竞争。大摩认为,尽管特斯拉或能在23年第一季度实现起码20%的汽车毛利率目标,但如果降价竞争持续,全球银行业危机导致经济增长放缓,并对消费者产生连锁影响,特斯拉要在随后几个季度保持该目标可能有难度。大摩给与特斯拉“增持”评级,设定220美元目标价。目标价由6个部分组成:(1)特斯拉汽车核心业务估值为每股117美元,假设到2030年,特斯拉生产7.2万辆汽车,WACC为9.0%,2030年EBITDA退出倍数为12倍,EBITDA退出利润率为20.0%。(2)假设到2030年,有42.5万量特斯拉上路,每英里价格为1.7美元,则其估值为9美元。(3)特斯拉作为第三方供应商,估值为每股29美元。4)能源业务估值为26美元/股,5)保险业务估值为8美元/股,6)网络服务估值为32美元,MAU为189万,到2030年,假设ARPU为80美元,折现率为50%。上行风险:服务营收披露;FSD附加率提高;新电池大大降低成本;新车型推出(Cybertruck,多厢式货车,Semi);为第三方制造电池;地理渗透和新产能增长。下行风险:来自竞争对手(传统OEM /中国国产汽车/大型科技公司)的压力;工厂数量增加带来的执行风险;服务运营得不到市场认可,附加率和单位收入(RPU)低于预期;中国方面风险;稀释;估值。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":447,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/653008495"}
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