股神大盛
2023-03-14
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@期权小班长:
鹰派预期拉满恐吓市场。机构:我吓死了,我装的
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf647b09eefbf793b5e515a683edf24e\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">那么鲍威尔今晚言论会有多鹰派呢?我在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UUP\">$美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$</a> 下面发现一张有趣的订单:</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UUP%2020230915%2030.0%20CALL\">$UUP%2020230915%2030.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UUP 20230915 30.0 CALL\">$UUP 20230915 30.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>没错,这是一张卖单,不是买单。交易者认为9月15日前美元ETF涨不到30,折合美元指数价位约等于110。目前美元指数价格104.5。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c4e1191799763d241430499c6f5553\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">其实这张单子无可厚非,今年美元会继续强势,但不会有去年那么强势,翻译过来就是涨不到110。</p><p>关键问题是,<b>这哥们为什么会在鲍威尔讲话之前卖出呢?难道现在就是美元最高点了吗?</b>这事儿才是最值得深思的。</p><p>时间点很重要,比如上面美元这张call,年初卖也可以,但赚的肯定没有现在多。对于反转趋势的共同认知是:高点卖call,低点卖 put。反过来高点卖put,低点卖call就比较难绷了,除了交易员算好点位摆烂以外,那就是他跟我的趋势判断相反了。比如我认为现在是高点但其实是上涨中继。</p><p>这就可以解释为什么有人会在现在这个时间卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230616%20150.0%20PUT\">$AAPL%2020230616%20150.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230616 150.0 PUT\">$AAPL 20230616 150.0 PUT$ </a> 。算了一下这单权利金得有500万。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec676d734377f1e18205e6cedc4c4c2\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">不可否认苹果随便哪个时间段卖put都可以,反正不亏。不过这张单子在我看来还是有点随意了。当然也说明此交易员认为甭管中间走什么样的v字路线,6月份苹果股价不会低于150。</p><p>同样的sell put大单还有:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$BABA%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$BABA 20230616 85.0 PUT$ </a> ,虽然看起来都是sell 平价put,但一个是一点都没有回调(苹果),一个是已经充分回调(阿里)。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f8667f4be93fd4d957dcdc5f6d693c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>随着软着陆期待逐渐降低,和1月2月相比,市场上多出了两种看法:</p><ul><li>超鹰派加息:3月有概率加息50基点</li><li>鸽派言论:通胀无法迅速下降到2%的话,美联储也可以接受3%。</li></ul><p>迷底会逐渐在最近三周揭晓。周二周三鲍威尔会向国会提交半年期货币政策回报,晚上10点(北京时间11点)有直播,鹰派预期拉满。周五晚上有2月非农数据,说不好会不会超预期,但从过去几次数据情况来看超预期才不奇怪,不超预期反而爆冷。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf647b09eefbf793b5e515a683edf24e\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">那么鲍威尔今晚言论会有多鹰派呢?我在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UUP\">$美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$</a> 下面发现一张有趣的订单:</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UUP%2020230915%2030.0%20CALL\">$UUP%2020230915%2030.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/UUP 20230915 30.0 CALL\">$UUP 20230915 30.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>没错,这是一张卖单,不是买单。交易者认为9月15日前美元ETF涨不到30,折合美元指数价位约等于110。目前美元指数价格104.5。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95c4e1191799763d241430499c6f5553\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">其实这张单子无可厚非,今年美元会继续强势,但不会有去年那么强势,翻译过来就是涨不到110。</p><p>关键问题是,<b>这哥们为什么会在鲍威尔讲话之前卖出呢?难道现在就是美元最高点了吗?</b>这事儿才是最值得深思的。</p><p>时间点很重要,比如上面美元这张call,年初卖也可以,但赚的肯定没有现在多。对于反转趋势的共同认知是:高点卖call,低点卖 put。反过来高点卖put,低点卖call就比较难绷了,除了交易员算好点位摆烂以外,那就是他跟我的趋势判断相反了。比如我认为现在是高点但其实是上涨中继。</p><p>这就可以解释为什么有人会在现在这个时间卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230616%20150.0%20PUT\">$AAPL%2020230616%20150.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230616 150.0 PUT\">$AAPL 20230616 150.0 PUT$ </a> 。算了一下这单权利金得有500万。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dec676d734377f1e18205e6cedc4c4c2\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">不可否认苹果随便哪个时间段卖put都可以,反正不亏。不过这张单子在我看来还是有点随意了。当然也说明此交易员认为甭管中间走什么样的v字路线,6月份苹果股价不会低于150。</p><p>同样的sell put大单还有:<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT\">$BABA%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20230616 85.0 PUT\">$BABA 20230616 85.0 PUT$ </a> ,虽然看起来都是sell 平价put,但一个是一点都没有回调(苹果),一个是已经充分回调(阿里)。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f8667f4be93fd4d957dcdc5f6d693c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p></body></html>","text":"随着软着陆期待逐渐降低,和1月2月相比,市场上多出了两种看法: 超鹰派加息:3月有概率加息50基点 鸽派言论:通胀无法迅速下降到2%的话,美联储也可以接受3%。 迷底会逐渐在最近三周揭晓。周二周三鲍威尔会向国会提交半年期货币政策回报,晚上10点(北京时间11点)有直播,鹰派预期拉满。周五晚上有2月非农数据,说不好会不会超预期,但从过去几次数据情况来看超预期才不奇怪,不超预期反而爆冷。那么鲍威尔今晚言论会有多鹰派呢?我在$美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ 下面发现一张有趣的订单: 卖$UUP%2020230915%2030.0%20CALL$ $UUP 20230915 30.0 CALL$ 没错,这是一张卖单,不是买单。交易者认为9月15日前美元ETF涨不到30,折合美元指数价位约等于110。目前美元指数价格104.5。其实这张单子无可厚非,今年美元会继续强势,但不会有去年那么强势,翻译过来就是涨不到110。 关键问题是,这哥们为什么会在鲍威尔讲话之前卖出呢?难道现在就是美元最高点了吗?这事儿才是最值得深思的。 时间点很重要,比如上面美元这张call,年初卖也可以,但赚的肯定没有现在多。对于反转趋势的共同认知是:高点卖call,低点卖 put。反过来高点卖put,低点卖call就比较难绷了,除了交易员算好点位摆烂以外,那就是他跟我的趋势判断相反了。比如我认为现在是高点但其实是上涨中继。 这就可以解释为什么有人会在现在这个时间卖$AAPL%2020230616%20150.0%20PUT$ $AAPL 20230616 150.0 PUT$ 。算了一下这单权利金得有500万。不可否认苹果随便哪个时间段卖put都可以,反正不亏。不过这张单子在我看来还是有点随意了。当然也说明此交易员认为甭管中间走什么样的v字路线,6月份苹果股价不会低于150。 同样的sell put大单还有:$BABA%2020230616%2085.0%20PUT$ $BABA 20230616 85.0 PUT$ ,虽然看起来都是sell 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