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@期权小班长：阿里财报策略瞎分析：增长缓慢预期吃透，反正不会暴涨

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636912622\" target=\"_blank\">分析师预期来看</a>，阿里这次财报依然非常悲观：分析师大幅降低了阿里巴巴的财报预期，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2022财年第三季度营收2453.76亿元，<b>同比增长11%</b>；调整后净利润441.85亿元，同比减少27.1%；调整后EPS 16.198元，同比减少26.4%。</p> <p>而上一季度营收同比增长29%，排除合并影响同比增长是16%。</p> <p>可以说本季度消费情绪相当疲软了，再跌一点就进入个位数增长阶段了。</p> <p>那么是不是本次财报就会大跌呢？</p> <p>不一定。目前期权异动榜中call成交量非常活跃，而从大单成交来看有跨式、远期看涨call和价差call，都是偏向正面波动。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7768d61bbd46477cc144cf7d106870\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3421c783b897a153407c3d52043004f9\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">不过依然有14%的人进行正股的做空押注，而且是上涨趋势，所以上面的call单也不排除是做对冲策略。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d0ad8ec581edfa80d3d8f695522370\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">个人看法是阿里这次财报70%概率波动低于5%，因为媒体和分析师已经广泛宣传过这次财报预期了，所以大单中的价差策略确实合适，也就是卖120call，买125call：</p> <ul> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220225%20125.0%20CALL\" target=\"_blank\">$BABA 20220225 125.0 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220225%20120.0%20CALL\" target=\"_blank\">$BABA 20220225 120.0 CALL$</a></li> \n</ul> <p>在股价112的基础上财报上涨8%会亏钱，财报涨幅低于8%或者下跌会赚$100。</p> <p>当然更好的交易机会在阿里财报公布后。</p> <p>炒股有时候跟做生意很像，如果你租了一个没什么客流量的店面，那么每一天都要面临实打实的现金流损失，包括人工费水电费房租费等，有时候客流量好转，似乎让你看到了赚钱的希望，但过几天又开始萧条；同理大趋势下跌的左侧抄底，每一天股票以百分之一或者百分之几的速度下跌，有时候突然上涨了百分之几，让你似乎看到反弹的希望，但接下去是持续的下跌。</p> <p>这种情况就需要赶紧止损将店面转手，而对于股票来说也是同理，该割就得割。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>我想起了上一季度财报后割肉的场景，历历在目。印象中在那次财报后我就没再做中概股了。直到前阵子中概集体反弹，我有想过重新考虑中概，但精力全部投入进了科技股财报导致无暇顾及，每每写盘前的时候都觉得本周关注股票够多了，不需要再做别的公司了，没想到因为拒绝“交易加班“而躲过一劫。</p> <p>阿里周四财报，谈一下对财报的预期。</p> <p>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636912622\" target=\"_blank\">分析师预期来看</a>，阿里这次财报依然非常悲观：分析师大幅降低了阿里巴巴的财报预期，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2022财年第三季度营收2453.76亿元，<b>同比增长11%</b>；调整后净利润441.85亿元，同比减少27.1%；调整后EPS 16.198元，同比减少26.4%。</p> <p>而上一季度营收同比增长29%，排除合并影响同比增长是16%。</p> <p>可以说本季度消费情绪相当疲软了，再跌一点就进入个位数增长阶段了。</p> <p>那么是不是本次财报就会大跌呢？</p> <p>不一定。目前期权异动榜中call成交量非常活跃，而从大单成交来看有跨式、远期看涨call和价差call，都是偏向正面波动。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7768d61bbd46477cc144cf7d106870\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3421c783b897a153407c3d52043004f9\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">不过依然有14%的人进行正股的做空押注，而且是上涨趋势，所以上面的call单也不排除是做对冲策略。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d0ad8ec581edfa80d3d8f695522370\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">个人看法是阿里这次财报70%概率波动低于5%，因为媒体和分析师已经广泛宣传过这次财报预期了，所以大单中的价差策略确实合适，也就是卖120call，买125call：</p> <ul> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220225%20125.0%20CALL\" target=\"_blank\">$BABA 20220225 125.0 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220225%20120.0%20CALL\" target=\"_blank\">$BABA 20220225 120.0 CALL$</a></li> \n</ul> <p>在股价112的基础上财报上涨8%会亏钱，财报涨幅低于8%或者下跌会赚$100。</p> <p>当然更好的交易机会在阿里财报公布后。</p> <p>炒股有时候跟做生意很像，如果你租了一个没什么客流量的店面，那么每一天都要面临实打实的现金流损失，包括人工费水电费房租费等，有时候客流量好转，似乎让你看到了赚钱的希望，但过几天又开始萧条；同理大趋势下跌的左侧抄底，每一天股票以百分之一或者百分之几的速度下跌，有时候突然上涨了百分之几，让你似乎看到反弹的希望，但接下去是持续的下跌。</p> <p>这种情况就需要赶紧止损将店面转手，而对于股票来说也是同理，该割就得割。</p></body></html>","text":"我想起了上一季度财报后割肉的场景，历历在目。印象中在那次财报后我就没再做中概股了。直到前阵子中概集体反弹，我有想过重新考虑中概，但精力全部投入进了科技股财报导致无暇顾及，每每写盘前的时候都觉得本周关注股票够多了，不需要再做别的公司了，没想到因为拒绝“交易加班“而躲过一劫。 阿里周四财报，谈一下对财报的预期。 从分析师预期来看，阿里这次财报依然非常悲观：分析师大幅降低了阿里巴巴的财报预期，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2022财年第三季度营收2453.76亿元，同比增长11%；调整后净利润441.85亿元，同比减少27.1%；调整后EPS 16.198元，同比减少26.4%。 而上一季度营收同比增长29%，排除合并影响同比增长是16%。 可以说本季度消费情绪相当疲软了，再跌一点就进入个位数增长阶段了。 那么是不是本次财报就会大跌呢？ 不一定。目前期权异动榜中call成交量非常活跃，而从大单成交来看有跨式、远期看涨call和价差call，都是偏向正面波动。不过依然有14%的人进行正股的做空押注，而且是上涨趋势，所以上面的call单也不排除是做对冲策略。个人看法是阿里这次财报70%概率波动低于5%，因为媒体和分析师已经广泛宣传过这次财报预期了，所以大单中的价差策略确实合适，也就是卖120call，买125call： $BABA 20220225 125.0 CALL$ $BABA 20220225 120.0 CALL$ 在股价112的基础上财报上涨8%会亏钱，财报涨幅低于8%或者下跌会赚$100。 当然更好的交易机会在阿里财报公布后。 炒股有时候跟做生意很像，如果你租了一个没什么客流量的店面，那么每一天都要面临实打实的现金流损失，包括人工费水电费房租费等，有时候客流量好转，似乎让你看到了赚钱的希望，但过几天又开始萧条；同理大趋势下跌的左侧抄底，每一天股票以百分之一或者百分之几的速度下跌，有时候突然上涨了百分之几，让你似乎看到反弹的希望，但接下去是持续的下跌。 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