这篇文章不错，转发给_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@期权小班长：阿里财报策略瞎分析：增长缓慢预期吃透，反正不会暴涨

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":636976055,"tweetId":"636976055","gmtCreate":1645664631862,"gmtModify":1645664631862,"author":{"id":3559534653093583,"idStr":"3559534653093583","authorId":3559534653093583,"authorIdStr":"3559534653093583","name":"云仙","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":106,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>\n这篇文章不错，转发给大家看</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>\n这篇文章不错，转发给大家看</body></html>","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636976055","repostId":636961299,"repostType":1,"repost":{"magic":2,"id":636961299,"tweetId":"636961299","gmtCreate":1645629431003,"gmtModify":1645652975898,"author":{"id":3527667590215376,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorId":3527667590215376,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","vip":2,"userType":2,"introduction":"最简单的期权策略实践者","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"99ab5418acee46419c22b9c7ac12257b-1","templateUuid":"99ab5418acee46419c22b9c7ac12257b","name":"月度最佳创作者","description":"每月精华帖数量及质量位于社区TOP3的创作者","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0cad6192443c33dca826a001250fbd4","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccd98c646815ce7610b0df338e060cc","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.03.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0},"individualDisplayBadges":[{"badgeId":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd-1","templateUuid":"3f8f4b8c193b4343a88817ce07587dbd","name":"星级创作者","description":"社区优质创作者：发表过3篇及以上精华帖，且30天内发表过至少一篇精华帖并参与过评论","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1866dcf97a73be1c330f85862546aedc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f5c5fa8e2c7683bb5a7fce8753ee456","redirectLinkEnabled":1,"redirectLink":"https://www.laohu8.com/activity/market/2023/star-contributors/","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.12.23","individualDisplayEnabled":1,"backgroundColor":{"dark":"#675a37","tint":"#f9ebc2"},"fontColor":{"dark":"#ffffff","tint":"#ab7a0e"}}],"fanSize":32636,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"bc6e8e4b405b43429905237d8c15ff4c","categoryId":"20b8d1944bae4805b371322c2ab986d4","name":"期权Q&A：期权知识，你问我答","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":bc6e8e4b405b43429905237d8c15ff4c}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"你想知道的期权知识都在这里，咨询期权问题@期权小助手","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672d6bc9cf055ebef009d5ee69bfef82"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7768d61bbd46477cc144cf7d106870","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3421c783b897a153407c3d52043004f9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d0ad8ec581edfa80d3d8f695522370","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7768d61bbd46477cc144cf7d106870","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3421c783b897a153407c3d52043004f9","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d0ad8ec581edfa80d3d8f695522370","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"title":"阿里财报策略瞎分析：增长缓慢预期吃透，反正不会暴涨","extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>我想起了上一季度财报后割肉的场景，历历在目。印象中在那次财报后我就没再做中概股了。直到前阵子中概集体反弹，我有想过重新考虑中概，但精力全部投入进了科技股财报导致无暇顾及，每每写盘前的时候都觉得本周关注股票够多了，不需要再做别的公司了，没想到因为拒绝“交易加班“而躲过一劫。</p> <p>阿里周四财报，谈一下对财报的预期。</p> <p>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636912622\" target=\"_blank\">分析师预期来看</a>，阿里这次财报依然非常悲观：分析师大幅降低了阿里巴巴的财报预期，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2022财年第三季度营收2453.76亿元，<b>同比增长11%</b>；调整后净利润441.85亿元，同比减少27.1%；调整后EPS 16.198元，同比减少26.4%。</p> <p>而上一季度营收同比增长29%，排除合并影响同比增长是16%。</p> <p>可以说本季度消费情绪相当疲软了，再跌一点就进入个位数增长阶段了。</p> <p>那么是不是本次财报就会大跌呢？</p> <p>不一定。目前期权异动榜中call成交量非常活跃，而从大单成交来看有跨式、远期看涨call和价差call，都是偏向正面波动。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7768d61bbd46477cc144cf7d106870\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3421c783b897a153407c3d52043004f9\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">不过依然有14%的人进行正股的做空押注，而且是上涨趋势，所以上面的call单也不排除是做对冲策略。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d0ad8ec581edfa80d3d8f695522370\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">个人看法是阿里这次财报70%概率波动低于5%，因为媒体和分析师已经广泛宣传过这次财报预期了，所以大单中的价差策略确实合适，也就是卖120call，买125call：</p> <ul> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220225%20125.0%20CALL\" target=\"_blank\">$BABA 20220225 125.0 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220225%20120.0%20CALL\" target=\"_blank\">$BABA 20220225 120.0 CALL$</a></li> \n</ul> <p>在股价112的基础上财报上涨8%会亏钱，财报涨幅低于8%或者下跌会赚$100。</p> <p>当然更好的交易机会在阿里财报公布后。</p> <p>炒股有时候跟做生意很像，如果你租了一个没什么客流量的店面，那么每一天都要面临实打实的现金流损失，包括人工费水电费房租费等，有时候客流量好转，似乎让你看到了赚钱的希望，但过几天又开始萧条；同理大趋势下跌的左侧抄底，每一天股票以百分之一或者百分之几的速度下跌，有时候突然上涨了百分之几，让你似乎看到反弹的希望，但接下去是持续的下跌。</p> <p>这种情况就需要赶紧止损将店面转手，而对于股票来说也是同理，该割就得割。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>我想起了上一季度财报后割肉的场景，历历在目。印象中在那次财报后我就没再做中概股了。直到前阵子中概集体反弹，我有想过重新考虑中概，但精力全部投入进了科技股财报导致无暇顾及，每每写盘前的时候都觉得本周关注股票够多了，不需要再做别的公司了，没想到因为拒绝“交易加班“而躲过一劫。</p> <p>阿里周四财报，谈一下对财报的预期。</p> <p>从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636912622\" target=\"_blank\">分析师预期来看</a>，阿里这次财报依然非常悲观：分析师大幅降低了阿里巴巴的财报预期，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2022财年第三季度营收2453.76亿元，<b>同比增长11%</b>；调整后净利润441.85亿元，同比减少27.1%；调整后EPS 16.198元，同比减少26.4%。</p> <p>而上一季度营收同比增长29%，排除合并影响同比增长是16%。</p> <p>可以说本季度消费情绪相当疲软了，再跌一点就进入个位数增长阶段了。</p> <p>那么是不是本次财报就会大跌呢？</p> <p>不一定。目前期权异动榜中call成交量非常活跃，而从大单成交来看有跨式、远期看涨call和价差call，都是偏向正面波动。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7768d61bbd46477cc144cf7d106870\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3421c783b897a153407c3d52043004f9\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">不过依然有14%的人进行正股的做空押注，而且是上涨趋势，所以上面的call单也不排除是做对冲策略。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8d0ad8ec581edfa80d3d8f695522370\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">个人看法是阿里这次财报70%概率波动低于5%，因为媒体和分析师已经广泛宣传过这次财报预期了，所以大单中的价差策略确实合适，也就是卖120call，买125call：</p> <ul> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220225%20125.0%20CALL\" target=\"_blank\">$BABA 20220225 125.0 CALL$</a></li> \n <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220225%20120.0%20CALL\" target=\"_blank\">$BABA 20220225 120.0 CALL$</a></li> \n</ul> <p>在股价112的基础上财报上涨8%会亏钱，财报涨幅低于8%或者下跌会赚$100。</p> <p>当然更好的交易机会在阿里财报公布后。</p> <p>炒股有时候跟做生意很像，如果你租了一个没什么客流量的店面，那么每一天都要面临实打实的现金流损失，包括人工费水电费房租费等，有时候客流量好转，似乎让你看到了赚钱的希望，但过几天又开始萧条；同理大趋势下跌的左侧抄底，每一天股票以百分之一或者百分之几的速度下跌，有时候突然上涨了百分之几，让你似乎看到反弹的希望，但接下去是持续的下跌。</p> <p>这种情况就需要赶紧止损将店面转手，而对于股票来说也是同理，该割就得割。</p></body></html>","text":"我想起了上一季度财报后割肉的场景，历历在目。印象中在那次财报后我就没再做中概股了。直到前阵子中概集体反弹，我有想过重新考虑中概，但精力全部投入进了科技股财报导致无暇顾及，每每写盘前的时候都觉得本周关注股票够多了，不需要再做别的公司了，没想到因为拒绝“交易加班“而躲过一劫。 阿里周四财报，谈一下对财报的预期。 从分析师预期来看，阿里这次财报依然非常悲观：分析师大幅降低了阿里巴巴的财报预期，根据彭博一致预期，阿里巴巴2022财年第三季度营收2453.76亿元，同比增长11%；调整后净利润441.85亿元，同比减少27.1%；调整后EPS 16.198元，同比减少26.4%。 而上一季度营收同比增长29%，排除合并影响同比增长是16%。 可以说本季度消费情绪相当疲软了，再跌一点就进入个位数增长阶段了。 那么是不是本次财报就会大跌呢？ 不一定。目前期权异动榜中call成交量非常活跃，而从大单成交来看有跨式、远期看涨call和价差call，都是偏向正面波动。不过依然有14%的人进行正股的做空押注，而且是上涨趋势，所以上面的call单也不排除是做对冲策略。个人看法是阿里这次财报70%概率波动低于5%，因为媒体和分析师已经广泛宣传过这次财报预期了，所以大单中的价差策略确实合适，也就是卖120call，买125call： $BABA 20220225 125.0 CALL$ $BABA 20220225 120.0 CALL$ 在股价112的基础上财报上涨8%会亏钱，财报涨幅低于8%或者下跌会赚$100。 当然更好的交易机会在阿里财报公布后。 炒股有时候跟做生意很像，如果你租了一个没什么客流量的店面，那么每一天都要面临实打实的现金流损失，包括人工费水电费房租费等，有时候客流量好转，似乎让你看到了赚钱的希望，但过几天又开始萧条；同理大趋势下跌的左侧抄底，每一天股票以百分之一或者百分之几的速度下跌，有时候突然上涨了百分之几，让你似乎看到反弹的希望，但接下去是持续的下跌。 这种情况就需要赶紧止损将店面转手，而对于股票来说也是同理，该割就得割。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636961299","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["09988","BABA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1517,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4256,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/636976055"}