dely
2022-03-01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@捷克Jack:
现在的BABA可能是最适合期权获利的标的
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a></p> <p>关于阿里巴巴,大家最近关注的几个点无非就是:</p> <ol> \n <li>最新季度的财报收入增速创下IPO以来新低;</li> \n <li>阿里云因为某些原因被人为限制了;</li> \n <li>淘系电商面临短视频竞争激烈;</li> \n <li>“反垄断”政策的影响后续;</li> \n <li>芒格的基金开始大量抄底。</li> \n</ol> <p>其实,这些所有散户都能很容易触达的信息,往往都是明牌,是很容易“已经”体现在股价中的(Already Priced-in)。而对于投资者来说,无论你下注“多头”(Long)还是“空头”(Short),参与的都是对未来的预期。</p> <p>刚刚发完财报的公司,往往会有一段时间来消化完财报信息,而这时候的股价波动就并不会特别显著。除非对于财报的一致性预期特别大,比如说强烈的看好或者强烈地看衰,要不然股价都会呈现出“均值回归”的特点。</p> <p>BABA的股票,已经回到了2017年的水平。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20742f1d38218a6937b40ce9ce6a572e\" tg-width=\"1756\" tg-height=\"730\"></p> <p>而且目前空头占比只有1.71%,与其说是回补得差不多,不如说是都不愿有人去空它了。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ced7ea70d28163182b389c8c498be32\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"342\"></p> <p>说实话,面对这样基本面的一家公司,抄底的确是个好选择。但是对于我们期权玩家来说,可以用一些期权策略获得更大概率的收益。</p> <p>我个人认为,一份简单的垂直差价(vertical Spread)就够,当然,是一份看涨的Spread。</p> <blockquote>\n 卖出,3月18日90美元的PUT,获得权利金1.31美元, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220318%2090.0%20PUT\"> $BABA 20220318 90.0 PUT$</a> \n</blockquote> <blockquote>\n 买入,3月18日85美元的PUT,付出权利金0.88美元, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220318%2085.0%20PUT\"> $BABA 20220318 85.0 PUT$</a> \n</blockquote> <p>按照2月28日收盘的价格,一份策略就是0.43美元,即43美元。保证金是500美元,扣除费用后的持有到期收益率为8%。</p> <p>至于为啥是这两张?就正好是95%概率下20周内均价可以落到的下限范围。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd288c41e6cc6a8c3bfdd37ece38327d\" tg-width=\"1757\" tg-height=\"733\"></p> <p>当然,如果你想要直接接盘抄底BABA,问题也不大,就直接卖出3月18日90美元的PUT就可以。</p> <p>或者,再激进一点,卖到100整数心理关口的PUT。</p> <p>主要下行风险:</p> <ol> \n <li>目前的俄乌战争疑云,给整个股票市场加深不确定性;</li> \n <li>美联储的加息行动,对科技股的打击</li> \n <li>不可明说的原因。</li> \n</ol> <p>Happy Trading!</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>上一次参与<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3542528121404732\">@麦麦max</a> 的直播中,我们聊到了<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a></p> <p>关于阿里巴巴,大家最近关注的几个点无非就是:</p> <ol> \n <li>最新季度的财报收入增速创下IPO以来新低;</li> \n <li>阿里云因为某些原因被人为限制了;</li> \n <li>淘系电商面临短视频竞争激烈;</li> \n <li>“反垄断”政策的影响后续;</li> \n <li>芒格的基金开始大量抄底。</li> \n</ol> <p>其实,这些所有散户都能很容易触达的信息,往往都是明牌,是很容易“已经”体现在股价中的(Already Priced-in)。而对于投资者来说,无论你下注“多头”(Long)还是“空头”(Short),参与的都是对未来的预期。</p> <p>刚刚发完财报的公司,往往会有一段时间来消化完财报信息,而这时候的股价波动就并不会特别显著。除非对于财报的一致性预期特别大,比如说强烈的看好或者强烈地看衰,要不然股价都会呈现出“均值回归”的特点。</p> <p>BABA的股票,已经回到了2017年的水平。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20742f1d38218a6937b40ce9ce6a572e\" tg-width=\"1756\" tg-height=\"730\"></p> <p>而且目前空头占比只有1.71%,与其说是回补得差不多,不如说是都不愿有人去空它了。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ced7ea70d28163182b389c8c498be32\" tg-width=\"590\" tg-height=\"342\"></p> <p>说实话,面对这样基本面的一家公司,抄底的确是个好选择。但是对于我们期权玩家来说,可以用一些期权策略获得更大概率的收益。</p> <p>我个人认为,一份简单的垂直差价(vertical Spread)就够,当然,是一份看涨的Spread。</p> <blockquote>\n 卖出,3月18日90美元的PUT,获得权利金1.31美元, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220318%2090.0%20PUT\"> $BABA 20220318 90.0 PUT$</a> \n</blockquote> <blockquote>\n 买入,3月18日85美元的PUT,付出权利金0.88美元, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020220318%2085.0%20PUT\"> $BABA 20220318 85.0 PUT$</a> \n</blockquote> <p>按照2月28日收盘的价格,一份策略就是0.43美元,即43美元。保证金是500美元,扣除费用后的持有到期收益率为8%。</p> <p>至于为啥是这两张?就正好是95%概率下20周内均价可以落到的下限范围。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd288c41e6cc6a8c3bfdd37ece38327d\" tg-width=\"1757\" tg-height=\"733\"></p> <p>当然,如果你想要直接接盘抄底BABA,问题也不大,就直接卖出3月18日90美元的PUT就可以。</p> <p>或者,再激进一点,卖到100整数心理关口的PUT。</p> <p>主要下行风险:</p> <ol> \n <li>目前的俄乌战争疑云,给整个股票市场加深不确定性;</li> \n <li>美联储的加息行动,对科技股的打击</li> \n <li>不可明说的原因。</li> \n</ol> <p>Happy Trading!</p></body></html>","text":"上一次参与@麦麦max 的直播中,我们聊到了$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 关于阿里巴巴,大家最近关注的几个点无非就是: 最新季度的财报收入增速创下IPO以来新低; 阿里云因为某些原因被人为限制了; 淘系电商面临短视频竞争激烈; “反垄断”政策的影响后续; 芒格的基金开始大量抄底。 其实,这些所有散户都能很容易触达的信息,往往都是明牌,是很容易“已经”体现在股价中的(Already Priced-in)。而对于投资者来说,无论你下注“多头”(Long)还是“空头”(Short),参与的都是对未来的预期。 刚刚发完财报的公司,往往会有一段时间来消化完财报信息,而这时候的股价波动就并不会特别显著。除非对于财报的一致性预期特别大,比如说强烈的看好或者强烈地看衰,要不然股价都会呈现出“均值回归”的特点。 BABA的股票,已经回到了2017年的水平。 而且目前空头占比只有1.71%,与其说是回补得差不多,不如说是都不愿有人去空它了。 说实话,面对这样基本面的一家公司,抄底的确是个好选择。但是对于我们期权玩家来说,可以用一些期权策略获得更大概率的收益。 我个人认为,一份简单的垂直差价(vertical Spread)就够,当然,是一份看涨的Spread。 卖出,3月18日90美元的PUT,获得权利金1.31美元, $BABA 20220318 90.0 PUT$ 买入,3月18日85美元的PUT,付出权利金0.88美元, $BABA 20220318 85.0 PUT$ 按照2月28日收盘的价格,一份策略就是0.43美元,即43美元。保证金是500美元,扣除费用后的持有到期收益率为8%。 至于为啥是这两张?就正好是95%概率下20周内均价可以落到的下限范围。 当然,如果你想要直接接盘抄底BABA,问题也不大,就直接卖出3月18日90美元的PUT就可以。 或者,再激进一点,卖到100整数心理关口的PUT。 主要下行风险: 目前的俄乌战争疑云,给整个股票市场加深不确定性; 美联储的加息行动,对科技股的打击 不可明说的原因。 Happy 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