程芳
2023-01-08
下跌区间90～105，上涨区间是120～135。但更有可能是在这之间震荡。
@期权小班长：
特斯拉会跌到哪儿？一些大单线索(2)
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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b66d3573e9daf8051fc1ed2651432d1e\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>很黑色幽默的是，市场上跌幅最引人注目的股票正是马斯克的特斯拉，很难说华尔街没点意见在里面。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6ae6aab0708e20722f7662383c11825\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">特斯拉一晚上跌到上周盘前低点104，接下来的问题就是，特斯拉还会跌吗？</p><p>可以用期权异动了解市场对这个问题的看法。</p><p>先说结论：市场倾向于不会跌到90以下，也不倾向会暴涨，sell call可能是近期更好的选择。</p><p>按时间顺序来看，周二开盘后没多久就有人买入了平价期权<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230106%20110.0%20PUT\">$TSLA%2020230106%20110.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230106 110.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230106 110.0 PUT$ </a> ，本周看跌到110以下，事实证明之后股价大跌，我认为这张期权的交易者今天可能会平仓。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e238ac9f412811ea68524b5814634a\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">然后时间来到盘中11点，此时特斯拉股价接近底部，有人卖出了行权价为135的call <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20135.0%20CALL\">$TSLA%2020230120%20135.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230120 135.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230120 135.0 CALL$ </a>，此行为可以解释为不看好特斯拉1月20日前不会涨过135。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40e05b0bee8ccb9564e878949fa5bdb\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">时间来到下半场，特斯拉止跌反弹。下半场的思路转化为sell put+buy call。也就是不看跌：</p><ul><li>卖出<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230203%2090.0%20PUT\">$TSLA%2020230203%2090.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230203 90.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230203 90.0 PUT$ </a></li><li>买入<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230203%20120.0%20CALL\">$TSLA%2020230203%20120.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230203 120.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230203 120.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>也就是说交易者极端看好特斯拉不会跌到90，并且跌到90有接盘的打算。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47509be5ba3deb9d06894fa1e3febbd1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">临近收盘时看到的一对思路类似：</p><ul><li>卖出<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20PUT\">$TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT$ </a></li><li>买入<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20CALL\">$TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230120 105.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230120 105.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>虽然行权价相同，但不是跨式策略，交易者同样也认为昨日价格是近期最低点，所以采用了跟上面类似的思路。</p><p>二人都没有单边梭哈call，反而反手卖了一个put，说明对底部上涨动能比较没信心，但从sell put来看，大概率就是底部了。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d6af91d93e320db868fdd10b1f8878\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">结合最上面sell call的单子，不难看出特斯拉近期波动区间：下跌区间90～105，上涨区间是120～135。但更有可能是在这之间震荡。</p><p>无独有偶，其实苹果也是一样的思路：sell call：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230120%20124.0%20CALL\">$AAPL%2020230120%20124.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230120 124.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230120 124.0 CALL$ </a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff7cef685342b3a9082781b28605baf\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>不过下行区间可能比特斯拉更悲观，有去往105的小概率可能性。之所以说是小概率，因为这套策略同样也加了一条sell call 的腿来覆盖put保障金，和之前动不动就梭哈单边的期权相比显得十分保守：</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230317%20135.0%20CALL\">$AAPL%2020230317%20135.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230317 135.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230317 135.0 CALL$ </a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230317%20105.0%20PUT\">$AAPL%2020230317%20105.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230317 105.0 PUT\">$AAPL 20230317 105.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c11c7b0a25315aee7dce302bfd5ebbb7\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>今天是1月4号，是马斯克预言股灾一周年的日子，所以今天也可以算另类“黑色星期五“了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b66d3573e9daf8051fc1ed2651432d1e\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>很黑色幽默的是，市场上跌幅最引人注目的股票正是马斯克的特斯拉，很难说华尔街没点意见在里面。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6ae6aab0708e20722f7662383c11825\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">特斯拉一晚上跌到上周盘前低点104，接下来的问题就是，特斯拉还会跌吗？</p><p>可以用期权异动了解市场对这个问题的看法。</p><p>先说结论：市场倾向于不会跌到90以下，也不倾向会暴涨，sell call可能是近期更好的选择。</p><p>按时间顺序来看，周二开盘后没多久就有人买入了平价期权<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230106%20110.0%20PUT\">$TSLA%2020230106%20110.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230106 110.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230106 110.0 PUT$ </a> ，本周看跌到110以下，事实证明之后股价大跌，我认为这张期权的交易者今天可能会平仓。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10e238ac9f412811ea68524b5814634a\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">然后时间来到盘中11点，此时特斯拉股价接近底部，有人卖出了行权价为135的call <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20135.0%20CALL\">$TSLA%2020230120%20135.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230120 135.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230120 135.0 CALL$ </a>，此行为可以解释为不看好特斯拉1月20日前不会涨过135。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a40e05b0bee8ccb9564e878949fa5bdb\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">时间来到下半场，特斯拉止跌反弹。下半场的思路转化为sell put+buy call。也就是不看跌：</p><ul><li>卖出<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230203%2090.0%20PUT\">$TSLA%2020230203%2090.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230203 90.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230203 90.0 PUT$ </a></li><li>买入<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230203%20120.0%20CALL\">$TSLA%2020230203%20120.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230203 120.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230203 120.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>也就是说交易者极端看好特斯拉不会跌到90，并且跌到90有接盘的打算。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47509be5ba3deb9d06894fa1e3febbd1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">临近收盘时看到的一对思路类似：</p><ul><li>卖出<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20PUT\">$TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT\">$TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT$ </a></li><li>买入<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20CALL\">$TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20230120 105.0 CALL\">$TSLA 20230120 105.0 CALL$ </a></li></ul><p>虽然行权价相同，但不是跨式策略，交易者同样也认为昨日价格是近期最低点，所以采用了跟上面类似的思路。</p><p>二人都没有单边梭哈call，反而反手卖了一个put，说明对底部上涨动能比较没信心，但从sell put来看，大概率就是底部了。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24d6af91d93e320db868fdd10b1f8878\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">结合最上面sell call的单子，不难看出特斯拉近期波动区间：下跌区间90～105，上涨区间是120～135。但更有可能是在这之间震荡。</p><p>无独有偶，其实苹果也是一样的思路：sell call：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230120%20124.0%20CALL\">$AAPL%2020230120%20124.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230120 124.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230120 124.0 CALL$ </a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ff7cef685342b3a9082781b28605baf\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p>不过下行区间可能比特斯拉更悲观，有去往105的小概率可能性。之所以说是小概率，因为这套策略同样也加了一条sell call 的腿来覆盖put保障金，和之前动不动就梭哈单边的期权相比显得十分保守：</p><ul><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230317%20135.0%20CALL\">$AAPL%2020230317%20135.0%20CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230317 135.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230317 135.0 CALL$ </a></li><li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230317%20105.0%20PUT\">$AAPL%2020230317%20105.0%20PUT$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230317 105.0 PUT\">$AAPL 20230317 105.0 PUT$ </a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c11c7b0a25315aee7dce302bfd5ebbb7\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p><p></p></body></html>","text":"今天是1月4号，是马斯克预言股灾一周年的日子，所以今天也可以算另类“黑色星期五“了。 很黑色幽默的是，市场上跌幅最引人注目的股票正是马斯克的特斯拉，很难说华尔街没点意见在里面。特斯拉一晚上跌到上周盘前低点104，接下来的问题就是，特斯拉还会跌吗？ 可以用期权异动了解市场对这个问题的看法。 先说结论：市场倾向于不会跌到90以下，也不倾向会暴涨，sell call可能是近期更好的选择。 按时间顺序来看，周二开盘后没多久就有人买入了平价期权$TSLA%2020230106%20110.0%20PUT$ $TSLA 20230106 110.0 PUT$ ，本周看跌到110以下，事实证明之后股价大跌，我认为这张期权的交易者今天可能会平仓。然后时间来到盘中11点，此时特斯拉股价接近底部，有人卖出了行权价为135的call $TSLA%2020230120%20135.0%20CALL$ $TSLA 20230120 135.0 CALL$ ，此行为可以解释为不看好特斯拉1月20日前不会涨过135。时间来到下半场，特斯拉止跌反弹。下半场的思路转化为sell put+buy call。也就是不看跌： 卖出$TSLA%2020230203%2090.0%20PUT$ $TSLA 20230203 90.0 PUT$ 买入$TSLA%2020230203%20120.0%20CALL$ $TSLA 20230203 120.0 CALL$ 也就是说交易者极端看好特斯拉不会跌到90，并且跌到90有接盘的打算。临近收盘时看到的一对思路类似： 卖出$TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20PUT$ $TSLA 20230120 105.0 PUT$ 买入$TSLA%2020230120%20105.0%20CALL$ $TSLA 20230120 105.0 CALL$ 虽然行权价相同，但不是跨式策略，交易者同样也认为昨日价格是近期最低点，所以采用了跟上面类似的思路。 二人都没有单边梭哈call，反而反手卖了一个put，说明对底部上涨动能比较没信心，但从sell put来看，大概率就是底部了。结合最上面sell call的单子，不难看出特斯拉近期波动区间：下跌区间90～105，上涨区间是120～135。但更有可能是在这之间震荡。 无独有偶，其实苹果也是一样的思路：sell call：$AAPL%2020230120%20124.0%20CALL$ $AAPL 20230120 124.0 CALL$ 不过下行区间可能比特斯拉更悲观，有去往105的小概率可能性。之所以说是小概率，因为这套策略同样也加了一条sell call 的腿来覆盖put保障金，和之前动不动就梭哈单边的期权相比显得十分保守： $AAPL%2020230317%20135.0%20CALL$ $AAPL 20230317 135.0 CALL$ $AAPL%2020230317%20105.0%20PUT$ $AAPL 20230317 105.0 PUT$ 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