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2023-03-10
加息是增加流通成本，减少倍率，让借钱加杠杆变困难，缩表是直接减少货币流通量。现在最大的问题其实就是货币太多，多到我都不需要借，所以金融资产还是大量高企，甚至顶着加息往上涨
野村：美联储QT路线可能改变，这些“重要数据”将决定3月升息结果
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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>鲍威尔承认宏观经济形势已经发生了变化，1月份的经济数据异常火热，非住房核心服务通胀——即所谓的“超级核心”通胀，几乎没有放缓的迹象。尽管存在一些暂时性因素，但这些数据的强劲反映了经济的“韧性”。</p><p>野村认为，鲍威尔强调货币政策决定是在“逐次会议”（meeting-by-meeting）的基础上做出的，这表明，如果美联储决定加息50个基点，与静默期相关的潜在沟通困难可能不是问题。考虑到美联储正变得高度依赖数据，禁止美联储官员在FOMC会议前的一周半公开谈论货币政策，不太可能限制货币政策的灵活性。</p><p>在问答环节中，<b>鲍威尔提到，在3月份的会议之前，美联储将有“重要数据”需要审查，野村认为他指的可能是将于周五发布的2月非农就业报告和下周二发布的2月CPI数据。</b>市场定价显示，美联储加息50个基点的可能性已从早前的25%上升至约76.4%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27fe5191579cce78a39ef68906d68b9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>修改缩表路径的可能性增加</p><p>此外，野村认为美联储修改缩减资产负债表路径的可能性增加。</p><p>野村指出，美联储此前大举加息影响了银行贷款，<b>导致贷款标准大幅收紧，贷款拖欠率上升，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限。相反，风险资产市场仍然非常宽松</b>，基于财富效应，这很可能刺激了富裕家庭的持续支出。</p><p>从企业类型来看，对大型企业收紧贷款标准的商业银行继续增加，程度超过了超额债券溢价（一种衡量公司债券信用利差的指标，根据基础信用利差调整了个别企业的预期违约风险）；收紧小型企业贷款标准的银行也大幅增加，而日本股市经周期性调整的市盈率甚至略有下降（但仍保持在疫情前的水平）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40ee136348f227e0dc63aff7740dde11\" tg-width=\"555\" tg-height=\"531\" 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n野村：美联储QT路线可能改变，这些“重要数据”将决定3月升息结果\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-09 21:10 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683684><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>野村认为，美联储此前大举加息导致贷款标准大幅收紧，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限，而风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长，使通胀难以降温。在鲍威尔的讲话后，野村表示支持美联储3月加息50个基点，并认为其修改缩表路径的可能性有所增加。在周二美国参议院举行的听证会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果需要，美联储准备“加快加息步伐”，并且最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。野村策略师 Aichi...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683684\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683684","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170478085","content_text":"野村认为，美联储此前大举加息导致贷款标准大幅收紧，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限，而风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长，使通胀难以降温。在鲍威尔的讲话后，野村表示支持美联储3月加息50个基点，并认为其修改缩表路径的可能性有所增加。在周二美国参议院举行的听证会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果需要，美联储准备“加快加息步伐”，并且最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。野村策略师 Aichi Amemiya 和 Jacob Meyer 在周二的最新报告中指出，这支持了该机构对美联储3月加息50个基点的预期，这种预期已经超出了市场的普遍共识。鲍威尔承认宏观经济形势已经发生了变化，1月份的经济数据异常火热，非住房核心服务通胀——即所谓的“超级核心”通胀，几乎没有放缓的迹象。尽管存在一些暂时性因素，但这些数据的强劲反映了经济的“韧性”。野村认为，鲍威尔强调货币政策决定是在“逐次会议”（meeting-by-meeting）的基础上做出的，这表明，如果美联储决定加息50个基点，与静默期相关的潜在沟通困难可能不是问题。考虑到美联储正变得高度依赖数据，禁止美联储官员在FOMC会议前的一周半公开谈论货币政策，不太可能限制货币政策的灵活性。在问答环节中，鲍威尔提到，在3月份的会议之前，美联储将有“重要数据”需要审查，野村认为他指的可能是将于周五发布的2月非农就业报告和下周二发布的2月CPI数据。市场定价显示，美联储加息50个基点的可能性已从早前的25%上升至约76.4%。修改缩表路径的可能性增加此外，野村认为美联储修改缩减资产负债表路径的可能性增加。野村指出，美联储此前大举加息影响了银行贷款，导致贷款标准大幅收紧，贷款拖欠率上升，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限。相反，风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，基于财富效应，这很可能刺激了富裕家庭的持续支出。从企业类型来看，对大型企业收紧贷款标准的商业银行继续增加，程度超过了超额债券溢价（一种衡量公司债券信用利差的指标，根据基础信用利差调整了个别企业的预期违约风险）；收紧小型企业贷款标准的银行也大幅增加，而日本股市经周期性调整的市盈率甚至略有下降（但仍保持在疫情前的水平）。野村的金融状况指数（FCI）对股票价格和信贷息差很敏感，这一观察反映出，近期风险市场金融状况的缓解可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长。美联储可能需要更直接地在金融市场上活动，以降低财富效应对消费者需求的支持程度，从而降低通胀。从历史上看，风险资产市场往往对美联储资产负债表政策的变化很敏感。考虑到近期风险资产价格对美联储累计加息的阻力，野村认为美联储可能已经开始讨论：1）承诺在未来开始降息后仍将继续量化紧缩；2）取消每月缩表速度的上限；3）进行直接的资产出售。缩表的方式不如利率政策那样灵活，并且缩表的效果也不确定。因此，野村预计美联储目前不会马上改变现有的缩表政策，但调整缩表方式的可能性有所增加。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2265,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":163,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7892054,"commentId":"7892054","gmtCreate":1678388107649,"gmtModify":1678388111342,"authorId":3548268462187923,"author":{"id":3548268462187923,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorId":3548268462187923,"name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":627244334,"objectIdStr":"627244334","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<span 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