野村：美联储QT路线可能改变，这些“重要数据”将决定3月升息结果

华尔街见闻2023-03-09

野村认为，美联储此前大举加息导致贷款标准大幅收紧，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限，而风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长，使通胀难以降温。在鲍威尔的讲话后，野村表示支持美联储3月加息50个基点，并认为其修改缩表路径的可能性有所增加。在周二美国参议院举行的听证会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果需要，美联储准备“加快加息步伐”，并且最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。野村策略师 Aichi...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Mediator
2023-03-10
Mediator
fed利率观察器上50基地几天前就已经转变成多数派了，消息有点滞后吧
跳鼠
2023-03-10
跳鼠
加息是增加流通成本，减少倍率，让借钱加杠杆变困难，缩表是直接减少货币流通量。现在最大的问题其实就是货币太多，多到我都不需要借，所以金融资产还是大量高企，甚至顶着加息往上涨
- 适时做T:
  ，
- 杭州叶荣添:
  已阅
- 紫香檀:
  好
- 紫香檀:
  好
- Tracy_1988:
  [微笑]

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170478085?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-03-09 21:10","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1170478085","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"野村：美联储QT路线可能改变，这些“重要数据”将决定3月升息结果","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>野村认为，美联储此前大举加息导致贷款标准大幅收紧，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限，而风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长，使通胀难以降温。在鲍威尔的讲话后，野村表示支持美联储3月加息50个基点，并认为其修改缩表路径的可能性有所增加。在周二美国参议院举行的听证会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果需要，美联储准备“加快加息步伐”，并且最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。野村策略师 Aichi...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683684\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>野村：美联储QT路线可能改变，这些“重要数据”将决定3月升息结果</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n野村：美联储QT路线可能改变，这些“重要数据”将决定3月升息结果\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-09 21:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683684><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>野村认为，美联储此前大举加息导致贷款标准大幅收紧，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限，而风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长，使通胀难以降温。在鲍威尔的讲话后，野村表示支持美联储3月加息50个基点，并认为其修改缩表路径的可能性有所增加。在周二美国参议院举行的听证会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果需要，美联储准备“加快加息步伐”，并且最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。野村策略师 Aichi...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683684\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":null,"symbol_name":null,"start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683684","article_id":"1170478085","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3683684","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170478085","pubTimestamp":1678367414,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"野村认为，美联储此前大举加息导致贷款标准大幅收紧，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限，而风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长，使通胀难以降温。在鲍威尔的讲话后，野村表示支持美联储3月加息5","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{},"translate_title":"Nomura: The QT route of the Federal Reserve may change, and these \"important data\" will determine the result of interest rate increase in March","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf64851bcf69c3579157662fc7ed46a0","symbols_score_info":{},"content_text":"野村认为，美联储此前大举加息导致贷款标准大幅收紧，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限，而风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长，使通胀难以降温。在鲍威尔的讲话后，野村表示支持美联储3月加息50个基点，并认为其修改缩表路径的可能性有所增加。在周二美国参议院举行的听证会上，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果需要，美联储准备“加快加息步伐”，并且最终利率可能超过联储之前预期水平。野村策略师 Aichi Amemiya 和 Jacob Meyer 在周二的最新报告中指出，这支持了该机构对美联储3月加息50个基点的预期，这种预期已经超出了市场的普遍共识。鲍威尔承认宏观经济形势已经发生了变化，1月份的经济数据异常火热，非住房核心服务通胀——即所谓的“超级核心”通胀，几乎没有放缓的迹象。尽管存在一些暂时性因素，但这些数据的强劲反映了经济的“韧性”。野村认为，鲍威尔强调货币政策决定是在“逐次会议”（meeting-by-meeting）的基础上做出的，这表明，如果美联储决定加息50个基点，与静默期相关的潜在沟通困难可能不是问题。考虑到美联储正变得高度依赖数据，禁止美联储官员在FOMC会议前的一周半公开谈论货币政策，不太可能限制货币政策的灵活性。在问答环节中，鲍威尔提到，在3月份的会议之前，美联储将有“重要数据”需要审查，野村认为他指的可能是将于周五发布的2月非农就业报告和下周二发布的2月CPI数据。市场定价显示，美联储加息50个基点的可能性已从早前的25%上升至约76.4%。修改缩表路径的可能性增加此外，野村认为美联储修改缩减资产负债表路径的可能性增加。野村指出，美联储此前大举加息影响了银行贷款，导致贷款标准大幅收紧，贷款拖欠率上升，家庭和企业的信贷供应有限。相反，风险资产市场仍然非常宽松，基于财富效应，这很可能刺激了富裕家庭的持续支出。从企业类型来看，对大型企业收紧贷款标准的商业银行继续增加，程度超过了超额债券溢价（一种衡量公司债券信用利差的指标，根据基础信用利差调整了个别企业的预期违约风险）；收紧小型企业贷款标准的银行也大幅增加，而日本股市经周期性调整的市盈率甚至略有下降（但仍保持在疫情前的水平）。野村的金融状况指数（FCI）对股票价格和信贷息差很敏感，这一观察反映出，近期风险市场金融状况的缓解可能会强有力地促进未来的经济增长。美联储可能需要更直接地在金融市场上活动，以降低财富效应对消费者需求的支持程度，从而降低通胀。从历史上看，风险资产市场往往对美联储资产负债表政策的变化很敏感。考虑到近期风险资产价格对美联储累计加息的阻力，野村认为美联储可能已经开始讨论：1）承诺在未来开始降息后仍将继续量化紧缩；2）取消每月缩表速度的上限；3）进行直接的资产出售。缩表的方式不如利率政策那样灵活，并且缩表的效果也不确定。因此，野村预计美联储目前不会马上改变现有的缩表政策，但调整缩表方式的可能性有所增加。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":627516289,"gmtCreate":1678427656042,"gmtModify":1678427657730,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccbee84d06c97c8ea354bff2e5c20b6d","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c01e958f63198f5d9648b59135f687","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3498680662745699","authorIdStr":"3498680662745699"},"htmlText":"fed利率观察器上50基地几天前就已经转变成多数派了，消息有点滞后吧","listText":"fed利率观察器上50基地几天前就已经转变成多数派了，消息有点滞后吧","text":"fed利率观察器上50基地几天前就已经转变成多数派了，消息有点滞后吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627516289","repostId":1170478085,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":627244334,"gmtCreate":1678377711329,"gmtModify":1678377713336,"author":{"id":"4117846199739580","authorId":"4117846199739580","name":"跳鼠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5718d318ba3d35192322548a300a18b9","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4117846199739580","authorIdStr":"4117846199739580"},"htmlText":"加息是增加流通成本，减少倍率，让借钱加杠杆变困难，缩表是直接减少货币流通量。现在最大的问题其实就是货币太多，多到我都不需要借，所以金融资产还是大量高企，甚至顶着加息往上涨","listText":"加息是增加流通成本，减少倍率，让借钱加杠杆变困难，缩表是直接减少货币流通量。现在最大的问题其实就是货币太多，多到我都不需要借，所以金融资产还是大量高企，甚至顶着加息往上涨","text":"加息是增加流通成本，减少倍率，让借钱加杠杆变困难，缩表是直接减少货币流通量。现在最大的问题其实就是货币太多，多到我都不需要借，所以金融资产还是大量高企，甚至顶着加息往上涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627244334","repostId":1170478085,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7892054,"gmtCreate":1678388107649,"gmtModify":1678388111342,"authorId":3548268462187923,"author":{"id":3548268462187923,"idStr":"3548268462187923","authorId":3548268462187923,"name":"适时做T","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/513358897b9c93a557b2aa918aa95006","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":627244334,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">，</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">，</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">，</span>"},{"id":7892053,"gmtCreate":1678385878453,"gmtModify":1678385882785,"authorId":3494194328886206,"author":{"id":3494194328886206,"idStr":"3494194328886206","authorId":3494194328886206,"name":"杭州叶荣添","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3501b8f87bb95d1eec4029792d6547ee","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1f74612b6f95455f970edd02b5316db8-5","templateUuid":"1f74612b6f95455f970edd02b5316db8","name":"收益排行","description":"Top 5%","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28b025635697d2f8cba3e94ec9f33231","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9d0f04877ffafa61d3f0d06efb58d87","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b3045db9a2ba37916c82e771c62bd6c","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":"https://www.itigerup.com/activity/market/2023/stock-contest?adcode=StockContest2023","hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.09.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":5300},"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":627244334,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"已阅","text":"已阅","html":"已阅"},{"id":7892033,"gmtCreate":1678380115604,"gmtModify":1678380119306,"authorId":3542472305636197,"author":{"id":3542472305636197,"idStr":"3542472305636197","authorId":3542472305636197,"name":"紫香檀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":627244334,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好","text":"好","html":"好"},{"id":7892025,"gmtCreate":1678379957825,"gmtModify":1678379961491,"authorId":3542472305636197,"author":{"id":3542472305636197,"idStr":"3542472305636197","authorId":3542472305636197,"name":"紫香檀","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":627244334,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"好","text":"好","html":"好"},{"id":7892013,"gmtCreate":1678379215729,"gmtModify":1678379219365,"authorId":4100413231072130,"author":{"id":4100413231072130,"idStr":"4100413231072130","authorId":4100413231072130,"name":"Tracy_1988","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/859064912ac91ecf43b4b0e30270ae60","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":627244334,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":20,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1170478085"}