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@期权小班长：如何找到崩盘的蛛丝马迹

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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL\">$NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c685dd8562a2f0e49639893f90615af\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">对于奈飞这种财报波动剧烈的公司来说，财报前期权双卖并不常见。这对组合需要注意两点，行权价区间和到期日。</p><p>put行权价290是去年12月底部附近的价格，而call的行权价360则是奈飞去年4月财报前附近的价格。</p><p>而这对期权的行权日正好是到4月份也就是Q1财报季。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8117b6e36119343ff8591b1b2e2760a1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">所以这不光是一份单纯赌财报的策略，而是横跨整个Q1行情的策略。对于奈飞这份看起来还行的财报，这位交易员对Q1行情的预测是不会跌过12月低点，但也不会涨超去年4月低点。行情的上下限都被他卡的很死。</p><p>可能这就是本季度财报数据看起来还ok的公司行情走势了。</p><p>财报数据不行的公司我认为可能低点会回到10月。</p><p>无独有偶我发现有人在遮遮掩掩的购买亚马逊的put，怕被识别成大单购买了4次：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230210 83.0 PUT\">$AMZN 20230210 83.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a></p><p>到期日是2月10日，行权价83也是12月底部附近的价格。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f136b285af008151cfb5172c644dae66\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">其实整体来说大盘回调到12月底部也不是什么不可想象的事，FANNG随便一家财报出点事就回调到位了。</p><p>会不会发生在下周？不一定，有可能是下下周。</p><p>最后分享一张彩票，临床生物科技公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETNB\">$89Bio, Inc.(ETNB)$</a> &nbsp;的call异动：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ETNB 20230421 20.0 CALL\">$ETNB 20230421 20.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a></p><p>估计最近一个季度可能要有临床结果公布了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/936a64497bbefbc548a19d044cb73662\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">祝大家春节快乐！</p><hr><p>恭喜你找到老虎卡片，在本帖下方留言“恭喜发财”即可获赠10虎币，全部找到并集齐的虎友可以额外获得50虎币。此外第一个在本帖下方留言“恭喜发财”的虎友可获赠小虎周边一个。</p><p>详情请点击：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/626678592\" target=\"_blank\">【春节大放送】恭喜发财，利是逗来</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bab3dd1841bd1615f8ab24a008749742\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>本来今天也想摸了，但考虑下周就彻底放假了，万一来个大崩盘谁受的了？所以姑且看看有没有崩盘信号。</p><p>先讲结论：有概率会跌回12月底的位置。</p><p>这要从奈飞的期权异动说起。</p><p>今天奈飞公布Q4财报，多项数据超预期，尤其是订阅用户净增长达到了766万，远远超过了此前市场预期的450万。盘前股价上涨6%，达到335。</p><p>回看财报前一天的期权异动，我发现了这样一对订单：</p><ul><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL\">$NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT\">$NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c685dd8562a2f0e49639893f90615af\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">对于奈飞这种财报波动剧烈的公司来说，财报前期权双卖并不常见。这对组合需要注意两点，行权价区间和到期日。</p><p>put行权价290是去年12月底部附近的价格，而call的行权价360则是奈飞去年4月财报前附近的价格。</p><p>而这对期权的行权日正好是到4月份也就是Q1财报季。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8117b6e36119343ff8591b1b2e2760a1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">所以这不光是一份单纯赌财报的策略，而是横跨整个Q1行情的策略。对于奈飞这份看起来还行的财报，这位交易员对Q1行情的预测是不会跌过12月低点，但也不会涨超去年4月低点。行情的上下限都被他卡的很死。</p><p>可能这就是本季度财报数据看起来还ok的公司行情走势了。</p><p>财报数据不行的公司我认为可能低点会回到10月。</p><p>无独有偶我发现有人在遮遮掩掩的购买亚马逊的put，怕被识别成大单购买了4次：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMZN 20230210 83.0 PUT\">$AMZN 20230210 83.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a></p><p>到期日是2月10日，行权价83也是12月底部附近的价格。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f136b285af008151cfb5172c644dae66\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">其实整体来说大盘回调到12月底部也不是什么不可想象的事，FANNG随便一家财报出点事就回调到位了。</p><p>会不会发生在下周？不一定，有可能是下下周。</p><p>最后分享一张彩票，临床生物科技公司<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETNB\">$89Bio, Inc.(ETNB)$</a> &nbsp;的call异动：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ETNB 20230421 20.0 CALL\">$ETNB 20230421 20.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a></p><p>估计最近一个季度可能要有临床结果公布了。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/936a64497bbefbc548a19d044cb73662\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">祝大家春节快乐！</p><hr><p>恭喜你找到老虎卡片，在本帖下方留言“恭喜发财”即可获赠10虎币，全部找到并集齐的虎友可以额外获得50虎币。此外第一个在本帖下方留言“恭喜发财”的虎友可获赠小虎周边一个。</p><p>详情请点击：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/626678592\" target=\"_blank\">【春节大放送】恭喜发财，利是逗来</a></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bab3dd1841bd1615f8ab24a008749742\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p></body></html>","text":"本来今天也想摸了，但考虑下周就彻底放假了，万一来个大崩盘谁受的了？所以姑且看看有没有崩盘信号。 先讲结论：有概率会跌回12月底的位置。 这要从奈飞的期权异动说起。 今天奈飞公布Q4财报，多项数据超预期，尤其是订阅用户净增长达到了766万，远远超过了此前市场预期的450万。盘前股价上涨6%，达到335。 回看财报前一天的期权异动，我发现了这样一对订单： 卖$NFLX 20230421 360.0 CALL$ 卖$NFLX 20230421 290.0 PUT$ 对于奈飞这种财报波动剧烈的公司来说，财报前期权双卖并不常见。这对组合需要注意两点，行权价区间和到期日。 put行权价290是去年12月底部附近的价格，而call的行权价360则是奈飞去年4月财报前附近的价格。 而这对期权的行权日正好是到4月份也就是Q1财报季。所以这不光是一份单纯赌财报的策略，而是横跨整个Q1行情的策略。对于奈飞这份看起来还行的财报，这位交易员对Q1行情的预测是不会跌过12月低点，但也不会涨超去年4月低点。行情的上下限都被他卡的很死。 可能这就是本季度财报数据看起来还ok的公司行情走势了。 财报数据不行的公司我认为可能低点会回到10月。 无独有偶我发现有人在遮遮掩掩的购买亚马逊的put，怕被识别成大单购买了4次：$AMZN 20230210 83.0 PUT$ 到期日是2月10日，行权价83也是12月底部附近的价格。其实整体来说大盘回调到12月底部也不是什么不可想象的事，FANNG随便一家财报出点事就回调到位了。 会不会发生在下周？不一定，有可能是下下周。 最后分享一张彩票，临床生物科技公司$89Bio, Inc.(ETNB)$ 的call异动：$ETNB 20230421 20.0 CALL$ 估计最近一个季度可能要有临床结果公布了。祝大家春节快乐！ 恭喜你找到老虎卡片，在本帖下方留言“恭喜发财”即可获赠10虎币，全部找到并集齐的虎友可以额外获得50虎币。此外第一个在本帖下方留言“恭喜发财”的虎友可获赠小虎周边一个。 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