trendtrading
2023-02-13
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@期权小班长：
哪里是顶？sell call狠单分享
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call狠单分享","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>股市也讲究欲抑先扬，下跌之前先拉高。</p><p>周五非农数据非常出乎意料，虽然鲍威尔泄露了数据很强，但大家以为最强顶多就25～26万，没想到能达到50万以上，从就业数据来看何止硬着陆，连一点软着陆的迹象也没有。就业市场如此强劲，那1月的CPI似乎可能就不大好看了。</p><p>美元触底大反弹，三天时间从100.8涨到103。而美元一涨，风险资产价格比如股价就不好说了，市场近期触顶概率极大。</p><p>然后我在苹果期权异动里翻到这么一张单子：sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230519%20170.0%20CALL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230519 170.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230519 170.0 CALL$ </a></p><p>到期日是2023年5月19日，总成交额250多万，名副其实的大单。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6126fde7923ef32e2031019131cc970c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">为什么行权价是170？</p><p>170是去年4月份的高点。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ef2cf71c5b62726466a3e965d941488\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">对于这个位置大家应该都不陌生，奈飞双卖期权的那张大单，sell call行权价选择也是这个位置。从奈飞的近期表现来看，行权价选择还是较为准确的。虽然选择8月高点会更为安心。</p><p>目前不太确定这张大单是单纯的sell call还是在持有股票的情况下做的备兑，我觉得后者可能性也很大，做备兑会更为划算。</p><p>在美元反弹趋势下，上涨有限，下跌风险开始凸显，做见顶策略显然更为靠谱。</p><p>有人可能会琢磨现在是不是buy put会更好。我的答案是也可以，不过见顶是持续震荡过程，多空双方互相拉锯，显然赚取时间价值更为有利。</p><p>就比如上周五这张大单 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230217%20175.0%20CALL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230217 175.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230217 175.0 CALL$ </a> ，苹果涨至高点sell call赚了60万。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2a38741ab6fea68e338f758880a5dc\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">buy put本周不一定会有收获，不过也分板块，很明显有的板块已经开始回调了。</p><p>本文主要讨论两个问题，1是见顶时sell call 好还是buy put好，2是见顶价格大约在哪里。</p><p>延伸问题2就可以发现，如果某股票距离去年4月股价位置特别远，那还是不要sell call比较好，比如特斯拉。。。</p><p>但特斯拉能否在近期冲击300，那又是另一个问题了。最好不要sell call，不代表可以买call。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>股市也讲究欲抑先扬，下跌之前先拉高。</p><p>周五非农数据非常出乎意料，虽然鲍威尔泄露了数据很强，但大家以为最强顶多就25～26万，没想到能达到50万以上，从就业数据来看何止硬着陆，连一点软着陆的迹象也没有。就业市场如此强劲，那1月的CPI似乎可能就不大好看了。</p><p>美元触底大反弹，三天时间从100.8涨到103。而美元一涨，风险资产价格比如股价就不好说了，市场近期触顶概率极大。</p><p>然后我在苹果期权异动里翻到这么一张单子：sell <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230519%20170.0%20CALL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230519 170.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230519 170.0 CALL$ </a></p><p>到期日是2023年5月19日，总成交额250多万，名副其实的大单。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6126fde7923ef32e2031019131cc970c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">为什么行权价是170？</p><p>170是去年4月份的高点。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ef2cf71c5b62726466a3e965d941488\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">对于这个位置大家应该都不陌生，奈飞双卖期权的那张大单，sell call行权价选择也是这个位置。从奈飞的近期表现来看，行权价选择还是较为准确的。虽然选择8月高点会更为安心。</p><p>目前不太确定这张大单是单纯的sell call还是在持有股票的情况下做的备兑，我觉得后者可能性也很大，做备兑会更为划算。</p><p>在美元反弹趋势下，上涨有限，下跌风险开始凸显，做见顶策略显然更为靠谱。</p><p>有人可能会琢磨现在是不是buy put会更好。我的答案是也可以，不过见顶是持续震荡过程，多空双方互相拉锯，显然赚取时间价值更为有利。</p><p>就比如上周五这张大单 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL%2020230217%20175.0%20CALL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20230217 175.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20230217 175.0 CALL$ </a> ，苹果涨至高点sell call赚了60万。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2a38741ab6fea68e338f758880a5dc\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">buy put本周不一定会有收获，不过也分板块，很明显有的板块已经开始回调了。</p><p>本文主要讨论两个问题，1是见顶时sell call 好还是buy put好，2是见顶价格大约在哪里。</p><p>延伸问题2就可以发现，如果某股票距离去年4月股价位置特别远，那还是不要sell call比较好，比如特斯拉。。。</p><p>但特斯拉能否在近期冲击300，那又是另一个问题了。最好不要sell call，不代表可以买call。</p></body></html>","text":"股市也讲究欲抑先扬，下跌之前先拉高。 周五非农数据非常出乎意料，虽然鲍威尔泄露了数据很强，但大家以为最强顶多就25～26万，没想到能达到50万以上，从就业数据来看何止硬着陆，连一点软着陆的迹象也没有。就业市场如此强劲，那1月的CPI似乎可能就不大好看了。 美元触底大反弹，三天时间从100.8涨到103。而美元一涨，风险资产价格比如股价就不好说了，市场近期触顶概率极大。 然后我在苹果期权异动里翻到这么一张单子：sell $AAPL 20230519 170.0 CALL$ 到期日是2023年5月19日，总成交额250多万，名副其实的大单。为什么行权价是170？ 170是去年4月份的高点。对于这个位置大家应该都不陌生，奈飞双卖期权的那张大单，sell call行权价选择也是这个位置。从奈飞的近期表现来看，行权价选择还是较为准确的。虽然选择8月高点会更为安心。 目前不太确定这张大单是单纯的sell call还是在持有股票的情况下做的备兑，我觉得后者可能性也很大，做备兑会更为划算。 在美元反弹趋势下，上涨有限，下跌风险开始凸显，做见顶策略显然更为靠谱。 有人可能会琢磨现在是不是buy put会更好。我的答案是也可以，不过见顶是持续震荡过程，多空双方互相拉锯，显然赚取时间价值更为有利。 就比如上周五这张大单 $AAPL 20230217 175.0 CALL$ ，苹果涨至高点sell call赚了60万。buy put本周不一定会有收获，不过也分板块，很明显有的板块已经开始回调了。 本文主要讨论两个问题，1是见顶时sell call 好还是buy put好，2是见顶价格大约在哪里。 延伸问题2就可以发现，如果某股票距离去年4月股价位置特别远，那还是不要sell call比较好，比如特斯拉。。。 但特斯拉能否在近期冲击300，那又是另一个问题了。最好不要sell 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