金蝉Catherine
2023-03-01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@OptionPlus:
期权复盘:特斯拉今年一定还有倒车接人的机会!
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea483059fe18d0f92117ce04e3085943\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">上周下半场的回落主要来自继续加息预期的升温。之前说过,2月的25bp不重要,关键是3月,3月加息25bp也不重要,重要是对后面5月6月是否继续加息的预期,以及下半年不会降息的预期扭转。</p><p>上周鹰王讲话非常有节奏地提高了期货市场对5月继续加息的预期。3月再加25bp,利率就到了4.75%-5%,这是过去两个月市场的终端利率预期。现在CME的观察预计5月大概率继续加息25bp,且有一半概率6月还会再加25bp,使得终端利率到5.25%-5.5%。修正了过去两个月对终端利率的预期,我觉得市场需要一定空间去适配这个修正。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d1a513ac77b80b64c2ac438ab996ec1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 从图上看很明显跌破了20日线,这周有可能反抽,但基于上述原因3月继续回调的概率较大,可能是2月cpi公布的前后?另外,CME观察仍然显示12月有可能降息25bp,我觉得这个预期早晚也是会修正的。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 㕛判断错误,以为会在205那个阻力回调,结果是回调了,只象征性小回调一下。于是我的主力仓位在200被sell call行权卖出了,原计划回调到165以内接回来,但由于上周表现太过于强势,我下了sp 165和sp 175,原因是手上筹码不够,愿意更高一点接回。面对TSLA这种趋势中过于强势的股票,不要担心卖飞,多一点耐心,今年一定有倒车接人的机会,3月1日的发布会之后,如果预期落地,会有更好的机会。我的愿意175先小接盘,165和150开始主力接盘。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bc804fde1c66987a05a1e6c1868f894\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 从图上看很明显跌破了20日线,这周有可能反抽,但基于上述原因3月继续回调的概率较大,可能是2月cpi公布的前后?另外,CME观察仍然显示12月有可能降息25bp,我觉得这个预期早晚也是会修正的。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 㕛判断错误,以为会在205那个阻力回调,结果是回调了,只象征性小回调一下。于是我的主力仓位在200被sell call行权卖出了,原计划回调到165以内接回来,但由于上周表现太过于强势,我下了sp 165和sp 175,原因是手上筹码不够,愿意更高一点接回。面对TSLA这种趋势中过于强势的股票,不要担心卖飞,多一点耐心,今年一定有倒车接人的机会,3月1日的发布会之后,如果预期落地,会有更好的机会。我的愿意175先小接盘,165和150开始主力接盘。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bc804fde1c66987a05a1e6c1868f894\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">顺便说一个我最近的Sell call 爱股 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> ,其实sc是认为大盘会跌,对冲我手头的多仓,选择了一个看起来短期没有大涨动力的标的。NFLX是本轮最早反弹的标的,因为财报发的最早,反弹后已经到了这时候的密集区间,但是这个位置套了很多盘,我认为短期并没有动能突破,加上大盘已经进入竭力,是一个非常好的sc选择。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2dd8655cb8352c174f4c77bece53b8d\" tg-width=\"-1\" 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