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@期权小班长：期权异动端倪，FOMC是全市场回调的契机吗？

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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3364a8ae8de5fe09485d9274e90c0fc1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">当然，也有小概率利率决议公布后美股暴涨，那就是鲍威尔在新闻发布会上明确表示对于暂停加息纳入考虑，或者明确表示看到经济硬着陆风险今年有可能会降息。</p><p>但根据我们对鲍威尔的了解这是不可能的，从宏观数据上也无法证明这点。12月PCE环比负增长，通胀下行，而非农就业数据持续超预期，软着陆似乎指日可待。也就是上周的个股财报流露出一丝危机的味道，英特尔财报后大跌10%，2022年营收同比下降20%，净利润同比下降60%，首席执行官拒绝提供全年业绩预测；微软公布财报，表示个人电脑市场将再次萎缩，Azure云计算业务未来几个月将进一步放缓。</p><p>所以市场提前抢跑对于本周即将公布财报的公司来说也是一种pric&nbsp;in。市场对于财报不尽如人意早有预期，就看美联储对利率的操作了。</p><p>具体到财报交易上，整体看了一遍，布局财报的期权异动还没有特别具体的方向和区间，可能跟本周局面过于复杂有关。</p><p>一般罕见期权异动的芯片股领头羊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> 出现了看跌大单：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ASML 20231020 600.0 PUT\">$ASML 20231020 600.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9051b5b34740a8cbfbbd797bb002b334\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">中概这边<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a> 不同于之前的看涨价差，出现了看跌价差大单：</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20230317 33.0 PUT\">$KWEB 20230317 33.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20230317 29.0 PUT\">$KWEB 20230317 29.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ce9a15b5daf72c343facb94001735f1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">可能FOMC会引领一波全市场回调也说不定。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>春节放假期间市场面最好的消息就是加拿大央行宣布暂停加息。一直紧随美联储政策的加拿大央行宣布这一消息带给了市场无限的遐想，加拿大都暂停加息了，那下一个会不会是美联储？随后以成长股为代表的股票市场直接点火升空。</p><p>但讲道理，2月2号的FOMC大概率照旧加息25基点。市场兴奋过头显然不是好事，提前price&nbsp;in加息预期甚至过于高估停止加息概率，决议公布当天肯定是相反的走势期望。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3364a8ae8de5fe09485d9274e90c0fc1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">当然，也有小概率利率决议公布后美股暴涨，那就是鲍威尔在新闻发布会上明确表示对于暂停加息纳入考虑，或者明确表示看到经济硬着陆风险今年有可能会降息。</p><p>但根据我们对鲍威尔的了解这是不可能的，从宏观数据上也无法证明这点。12月PCE环比负增长，通胀下行，而非农就业数据持续超预期，软着陆似乎指日可待。也就是上周的个股财报流露出一丝危机的味道，英特尔财报后大跌10%，2022年营收同比下降20%，净利润同比下降60%，首席执行官拒绝提供全年业绩预测；微软公布财报，表示个人电脑市场将再次萎缩，Azure云计算业务未来几个月将进一步放缓。</p><p>所以市场提前抢跑对于本周即将公布财报的公司来说也是一种pric&nbsp;in。市场对于财报不尽如人意早有预期，就看美联储对利率的操作了。</p><p>具体到财报交易上，整体看了一遍，布局财报的期权异动还没有特别具体的方向和区间，可能跟本周局面过于复杂有关。</p><p>一般罕见期权异动的芯片股领头羊<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">$阿斯麦(ASML)$</a> 出现了看跌大单：<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ASML 20231020 600.0 PUT\">$ASML 20231020 600.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9051b5b34740a8cbfbbd797bb002b334\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">中概这边<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$</a> 不同于之前的看涨价差，出现了看跌价差大单：</p><ul><li>买<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20230317 33.0 PUT\">$KWEB 20230317 33.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a></li><li>卖<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KWEB 20230317 29.0 PUT\">$KWEB 20230317 29.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a></li></ul><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ce9a15b5daf72c343facb94001735f1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">可能FOMC会引领一波全市场回调也说不定。</p></body></html>","text":"春节放假期间市场面最好的消息就是加拿大央行宣布暂停加息。一直紧随美联储政策的加拿大央行宣布这一消息带给了市场无限的遐想，加拿大都暂停加息了，那下一个会不会是美联储？随后以成长股为代表的股票市场直接点火升空。 但讲道理，2月2号的FOMC大概率照旧加息25基点。市场兴奋过头显然不是好事，提前price in加息预期甚至过于高估停止加息概率，决议公布当天肯定是相反的走势期望。当然，也有小概率利率决议公布后美股暴涨，那就是鲍威尔在新闻发布会上明确表示对于暂停加息纳入考虑，或者明确表示看到经济硬着陆风险今年有可能会降息。 但根据我们对鲍威尔的了解这是不可能的，从宏观数据上也无法证明这点。12月PCE环比负增长，通胀下行，而非农就业数据持续超预期，软着陆似乎指日可待。也就是上周的个股财报流露出一丝危机的味道，英特尔财报后大跌10%，2022年营收同比下降20%，净利润同比下降60%，首席执行官拒绝提供全年业绩预测；微软公布财报，表示个人电脑市场将再次萎缩，Azure云计算业务未来几个月将进一步放缓。 所以市场提前抢跑对于本周即将公布财报的公司来说也是一种pric in。市场对于财报不尽如人意早有预期，就看美联储对利率的操作了。 具体到财报交易上，整体看了一遍，布局财报的期权异动还没有特别具体的方向和区间，可能跟本周局面过于复杂有关。 一般罕见期权异动的芯片股领头羊$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 出现了看跌大单：$ASML 20231020 600.0 PUT$ 中概这边$中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares(KWEB)$ 不同于之前的看涨价差，出现了看跌价差大单： 买$KWEB 20230317 33.0 PUT$ 卖$KWEB 20230317 29.0 PUT$ 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