雨轩爸爸
2022-11-28
又来,他不说话会死啊
鲍威尔重磅讲话来袭,会释放什么信号?
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
分享至
微信
复制链接
精彩评论
点点的小爸爸
2022-11-28
点点的小爸爸
肯定是保持较高的高利率时长,然后股市一路崩
什么也没有了~
APP内打开
发表看法
1
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":620893989,"tweetId":"620893989","gmtCreate":1669624723941,"gmtModify":1669624951446,"author":{"id":3560165919061276,"idStr":"3560165919061276","authorId":3560165919061276,"authorIdStr":"3560165919061276","name":"雨轩爸爸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"fanSize":0,"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"html":"<html><head></head><body><p>又来,他不说话会死啊</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>又来,他不说话会死啊</p></body></html>","text":"又来,他不说话会死啊","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620893989","repostId":2286156533,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2286156533","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1669622565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2286156533?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-11-28 16:02","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔重磅讲话来袭,会释放什么信号?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2286156533","media":"智通财经","summary":"美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周四2:30在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会主办的一次活动上发表以就业市场为主题的讲话。这次讲话可能将巩固美联储将在12月放慢加息步伐(50个基点)的预期,同时鲍威尔可能指出美联储与通","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周四2:30在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会主办的一次活动上发表以就业市场为主题的讲话。这次讲话可能将巩固美联储将在12月放慢加息步伐(50个基点)的预期,同时鲍威尔可能指出美联储与通胀的斗争将持续到2023年。在美联储连续四次加息75个基点之后,此次鲍威尔的讲话或对美联储是否在12月将基准利率提高50个基点或更高的市场预期做出回应。但由于美国现通胀率仍远高于该行2%的通胀目标,鲍威尔可能会在任何有关利率的声明中强调明年利率或进一步上升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d4078ee37c8456b0819881b5509a2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"284\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>Macro Policy Perspectives的创始合伙人Julia Coronado表示:“鲍威尔可能会在本次演讲中对维持鹰派货币政策的态度更为强势,并可能指出劳动力市场失衡的范围。”Coronado称,“鲍威尔可能将美国非农就业数据描述为美联储需要长期坚持货币紧缩政策的主要原因。”</p><p>根据期货市场合约定价,市场投资者预计美联储下个月将放缓加息步伐,并预期明年利率水平将从目前的3.75-4.00%升至5%左右的峰值。</p><p>市场的预期与鲍威尔在本月早些时候于美联储会议后的言论一致,彼时他表示美联储可能会在下个月放慢加息步伐,即使未来利率最终将上调至更高的峰值水平。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示:“我认为,对于让市场与美联储看到一致通胀情况来说,后者并没有太多繁重的工作要做。”</p><p>另有经济学家称,“最终鲍威尔将主导利率政策的最终决定,提醒市场美联储不会转鸽并会继续收紧政策,直到有确切的证据表明通胀正持续下降。”</p><p>11月的美联储会议纪要显示,绝大多数美联储官员同意在未来放缓加息步伐。但关于最终需要将利率提高到多高的观点并不明确,政策制定者认为有必要将利率提高到比预期更高的水平。</p><p>根据会议后所发布的利率预期中值,今年年底市场货币利率将达到4.4%,到明年年底将达到4.6%。这些预测数据将会在下个月的会议上更新。</p><p>在鲍威尔发表讲话之前,美国将于周三晚间发布该国职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)更新数据,而鲍威尔经常引用这份报告作为劳动力供不应求的证据。由于9月份市场的职位空缺出人意料地增加,该国社会工资压力也将加剧。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0aac156f73d5faa4bcad6c4163490baf\" tg-width=\"511\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>紧随鲍威尔讲话,11月非农就业报告也将在周五晚间出炉,政策制定者也将在12月利率决议之前审查该报告以及周四晚间将发布的通胀数据11月PCE物价指数。</p><p>Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC首席经济学家Stephen Stanley表示,“自美联储11月会议以来,金融市场现状有所缓和,股市有所上涨,债券市场的风险利差正在收窄。”</p><p>但鲍威尔不太可能在他的言论中提及股市相关信息,而大概率会重申其于本月早些时候的言论:该行可能很快会放缓加息步伐,但利率可能需要略高于先前的预期,才能使价格降温。</p><p>Stanley表示。“如果市场有美联储将把12月利率提高到鲍威尔先前暗示的5%水平的准备,那么我觉得鲍威尔已经完成了其对市场的提示工作。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔重磅讲话来袭,会释放什么信号?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔重磅讲话来袭,会释放什么信号?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-28 16:02 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/838030.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周四2:30在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会主办的一次活动上发表以就业市场为主题的讲话。这次讲话可能将巩固美联储将在12月放慢加息步伐(50个基点)的预期,同时鲍威尔可能指出美联储与通胀的斗争将持续到2023年。在美联储连续四次加息75个基点之后,此次鲍威尔的讲话或对美联储是否在12月将基准利率提高50个基点或更高的市场预期做出回应。但由于美国现通胀率仍远高于该行2%的通胀目标,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/838030.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909f0c076f3fff78497a5c9be00e5429","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/838030.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2286156533","content_text":"美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周四2:30在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会主办的一次活动上发表以就业市场为主题的讲话。这次讲话可能将巩固美联储将在12月放慢加息步伐(50个基点)的预期,同时鲍威尔可能指出美联储与通胀的斗争将持续到2023年。在美联储连续四次加息75个基点之后,此次鲍威尔的讲话或对美联储是否在12月将基准利率提高50个基点或更高的市场预期做出回应。但由于美国现通胀率仍远高于该行2%的通胀目标,鲍威尔可能会在任何有关利率的声明中强调明年利率或进一步上升。Macro Policy Perspectives的创始合伙人Julia Coronado表示:“鲍威尔可能会在本次演讲中对维持鹰派货币政策的态度更为强势,并可能指出劳动力市场失衡的范围。”Coronado称,“鲍威尔可能将美国非农就业数据描述为美联储需要长期坚持货币紧缩政策的主要原因。”根据期货市场合约定价,市场投资者预计美联储下个月将放缓加息步伐,并预期明年利率水平将从目前的3.75-4.00%升至5%左右的峰值。市场的预期与鲍威尔在本月早些时候于美联储会议后的言论一致,彼时他表示美联储可能会在下个月放慢加息步伐,即使未来利率最终将上调至更高的峰值水平。摩根大通首席美国经济学家Michael Feroli表示:“我认为,对于让市场与美联储看到一致通胀情况来说,后者并没有太多繁重的工作要做。”另有经济学家称,“最终鲍威尔将主导利率政策的最终决定,提醒市场美联储不会转鸽并会继续收紧政策,直到有确切的证据表明通胀正持续下降。”11月的美联储会议纪要显示,绝大多数美联储官员同意在未来放缓加息步伐。但关于最终需要将利率提高到多高的观点并不明确,政策制定者认为有必要将利率提高到比预期更高的水平。根据会议后所发布的利率预期中值,今年年底市场货币利率将达到4.4%,到明年年底将达到4.6%。这些预测数据将会在下个月的会议上更新。在鲍威尔发表讲话之前,美国将于周三晚间发布该国职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)更新数据,而鲍威尔经常引用这份报告作为劳动力供不应求的证据。由于9月份市场的职位空缺出人意料地增加,该国社会工资压力也将加剧。紧随鲍威尔讲话,11月非农就业报告也将在周五晚间出炉,政策制定者也将在12月利率决议之前审查该报告以及周四晚间将发布的通胀数据11月PCE物价指数。Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC首席经济学家Stephen Stanley表示,“自美联储11月会议以来,金融市场现状有所缓和,股市有所上涨,债券市场的风险利差正在收窄。”但鲍威尔不太可能在他的言论中提及股市相关信息,而大概率会重申其于本月早些时候的言论:该行可能很快会放缓加息步伐,但利率可能需要略高于先前的预期,才能使价格降温。Stanley表示。“如果市场有美联储将把12月利率提高到鲍威尔先前暗示的5%水平的准备,那么我觉得鲍威尔已经完成了其对市场的提示工作。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1797,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":19,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":7758221,"commentId":"7758221","gmtCreate":1669632072605,"gmtModify":1669632086039,"authorId":3484871130175544,"author":{"id":3484871130175544,"idStr":"3484871130175544","authorId":3484871130175544,"name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a7c4a48ae975b463927daa173b62c3","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":620893989,"objectIdStr":"620893989","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"肯定是保持较高的高利率时长,然后股市一路崩","text":"肯定是保持较高的高利率时长,然后股市一路崩","html":"肯定是保持较高的高利率时长,然后股市一路崩","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/620893989"}
精彩评论