鲍威尔重磅讲话来袭，会释放什么信号？

智通财经2022-11-28

美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间周四2:30在华盛顿布鲁金斯学会主办的一次活动上发表以就业市场为主题的讲话。这次讲话可能将巩固美联储将在12月放慢加息步伐(50个基点)的预期，同时鲍威尔可能指出美联储与通胀的斗争将持续到2023年。在美联储连续四次加息75个基点之后，此次鲍威尔的讲话或对美联储是否在12月将基准利率提高50个基点或更高的市场预期做出回应。但由于美国现通胀率仍远高于该行2%的通胀目标，...

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雨轩爸爸
2022-11-28
雨轩爸爸
又来，他不说话会死啊
- 点点的小爸爸:
  肯定是保持较高的高利率时长，然后股市一路崩

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Feroli表示：“我认为，对于让市场与美联储看到一致通胀情况来说，后者并没有太多繁重的工作要做。”另有经济学家称，“最终鲍威尔将主导利率政策的最终决定，提醒市场美联储不会转鸽并会继续收紧政策，直到有确切的证据表明通胀正持续下降。”11月的美联储会议纪要显示，绝大多数美联储官员同意在未来放缓加息步伐。但关于最终需要将利率提高到多高的观点并不明确，政策制定者认为有必要将利率提高到比预期更高的水平。根据会议后所发布的利率预期中值，今年年底市场货币利率将达到4.4%，到明年年底将达到4.6%。这些预测数据将会在下个月的会议上更新。在鲍威尔发表讲话之前，美国将于周三晚间发布该国职位空缺和劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)更新数据，而鲍威尔经常引用这份报告作为劳动力供不应求的证据。由于9月份市场的职位空缺出人意料地增加，该国社会工资压力也将加剧。紧随鲍威尔讲话，11月非农就业报告也将在周五晚间出炉，政策制定者也将在12月利率决议之前审查该报告以及周四晚间将发布的通胀数据11月PCE物价指数。Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC首席经济学家Stephen Stanley表示，“自美联储11月会议以来，金融市场现状有所缓和，股市有所上涨，债券市场的风险利差正在收窄。”但鲍威尔不太可能在他的言论中提及股市相关信息，而大概率会重申其于本月早些时候的言论：该行可能很快会放缓加息步伐，但利率可能需要略高于先前的预期，才能使价格降温。Stanley表示。“如果市场有美联储将把12月利率提高到鲍威尔先前暗示的5%水平的准备，那么我觉得鲍威尔已经完成了其对市场的提示工作。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":620893989,"gmtCreate":1669624723941,"gmtModify":1669624951446,"author":{"id":"3560165919061276","authorId":"3560165919061276","name":"雨轩爸爸","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"又来，他不说话会死啊","listText":"又来，他不说话会死啊","text":"又来，他不说话会死啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/620893989","repostId":2286156533,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7758221,"gmtCreate":1669632072605,"gmtModify":1669632086039,"authorId":3484871130175544,"author":{"id":3484871130175544,"authorId":3484871130175544,"name":"点点的小爸爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a7c4a48ae975b463927daa173b62c3","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.05.02","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":620893989,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"肯定是保持较高的高利率时长，然后股市一路崩","text":"肯定是保持较高的高利率时长，然后股市一路崩","html":"肯定是保持较高的高利率时长，然后股市一路崩"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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