浮华醉醒了谁的流年
2022-04-23
好文
@捷克Jack:
可口可乐罕见周一财报,我打算用这个期权策略
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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$可口可乐(KO)$</a> 的股票,倒不是为了学巴菲特价值投资,而是没想到老树逢春,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>能在中美两国同时“抗通胀”</b></span>。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffdc968f764413f06f049156808b641a\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"417\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929e77f3dc95ff0b3537bae3a0dea01e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\"></p> <p>虽然很不明白3月初可口可乐股票下跌的原因,但即使从3月下旬以来买入,至今也有近10%的收益,一个月而已!</p> <p>问世间,一只股票能有多少个10%的涨幅?<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17361cf3c8ee94d137ef526817b7d97e\" tg-width=\"1747\" tg-height=\"730\"></p> <p>更何况,KO还是一直长期分红的价值股,即使现在股价达到史上最高,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>股息率仍有2.66%,而其5年平均的股息率要达到3.66%</b></span>,这可是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a> 的木头姐想都不敢想的收益啊!</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b070d987d095caac323cbba0dc2847d4\" tg-width=\"1950\" tg-height=\"675\"><span>KO的分红史</span></p> <p>下周一盘前,可口可乐将公布今年Q1的财报。</p> <p>很少有公司在周一盘前公布财报,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>因为这显然不是一个交投活跃的时间段</b></span>。但以可口可乐目前的地位和状态来看,已然是美股市场遗世独立的明珠,也不用操心那么多。爱它的人那么多,如果跌多了,价值者们会纷至沓来加仓。</p> <p>更何况,食品的通胀根本没有要结束的意思。</p> <p>既然如此,作为期权玩家的我,有什么好的对策呢?</p> <p>我打算做一个单纯的多头。</p> <p>只要周末市场不变天,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>只要财报不至于太委屈(我想不到可口可乐业绩不及预期的理由,即便是Costa也该在国外疫情后重获新生)</b></span>,用多头思维总是好的。</p> <p>不过期权交易,依然还是概率的问题。</p> <p><b>因此,我决定用一个“蝴蝶策略”+“对角策略”的组合,来增大收益概率。</b></p> <p>对角策略如下</p> <p>卖出一张 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220429%2069.0%20CALL\">$KO 20220429 69.0 CALL$</a>,买入一张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220506%2066.0%20CALL\">$KO 20220506 66.0 CALL$</a></p> <p>其收益情况如下:<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/461ec3cd9c580b588e7b95a0e2e7bb61\" tg-width=\"1477\" tg-height=\"727\"></p> <p>蝴蝶策略,采用5月6日的期权组合:买入一张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220506%2063.0%20PUT\">$KO 20220506 63.0 PUT$</a>,卖出两张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220506%2067.0%20PUT\">$KO 20220506 67.0 PUT$</a>,买入一张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220506%2071.0%20PUT\">$KO 20220506 71.0 PUT$</a></p> <p>收益情况如下:<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a57f59ade527f7a3a0af19744d4beb4\" tg-width=\"1474\" tg-height=\"707\"></p> <p>如果把两个组合加在一起,盈亏平衡点是73.59美元以及65.95美元,投入成本312美元,最大收益181美元。</p> <p>虽然从收益比来看,并不是最优秀的。但是扩大了上限的盈利区间。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147e934c5c71be3fe5dd7e059003239c\" tg-width=\"1488\" tg-height=\"736\"></p> <p>最后还要提醒大家以下几点:</p> <ul> \n <li>期权是概率的游戏,并不能保证一定盈利;</li> \n <li>组合要求的保证金不同,当然有组合保证金的减免;</li> \n</ul> <p>同时,没有选择末日期权,就还有最大的朋友——时间。未必需要到最后一天卖出,我们可以选择任何盈利时间点平仓。</p> <p>另外,SNAP的财报策略今晚见分晓。</p> <p>Happy Trading</p> <p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>如果我住在上海,可能在一个月前就会大量买入<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$可口可乐(KO)$</a> 的股票,倒不是为了学巴菲特价值投资,而是没想到老树逢春,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>能在中美两国同时“抗通胀”</b></span>。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffdc968f764413f06f049156808b641a\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"417\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929e77f3dc95ff0b3537bae3a0dea01e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\"></p> <p>虽然很不明白3月初可口可乐股票下跌的原因,但即使从3月下旬以来买入,至今也有近10%的收益,一个月而已!</p> <p>问世间,一只股票能有多少个10%的涨幅?<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17361cf3c8ee94d137ef526817b7d97e\" tg-width=\"1747\" tg-height=\"730\"></p> <p>更何况,KO还是一直长期分红的价值股,即使现在股价达到史上最高,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>股息率仍有2.66%,而其5年平均的股息率要达到3.66%</b></span>,这可是<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARKK\">$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$</a> 的木头姐想都不敢想的收益啊!</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b070d987d095caac323cbba0dc2847d4\" tg-width=\"1950\" tg-height=\"675\"><span>KO的分红史</span></p> <p>下周一盘前,可口可乐将公布今年Q1的财报。</p> <p>很少有公司在周一盘前公布财报,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>因为这显然不是一个交投活跃的时间段</b></span>。但以可口可乐目前的地位和状态来看,已然是美股市场遗世独立的明珠,也不用操心那么多。爱它的人那么多,如果跌多了,价值者们会纷至沓来加仓。</p> <p>更何况,食品的通胀根本没有要结束的意思。</p> <p>既然如此,作为期权玩家的我,有什么好的对策呢?</p> <p>我打算做一个单纯的多头。</p> <p>只要周末市场不变天,<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>只要财报不至于太委屈(我想不到可口可乐业绩不及预期的理由,即便是Costa也该在国外疫情后重获新生)</b></span>,用多头思维总是好的。</p> <p>不过期权交易,依然还是概率的问题。</p> <p><b>因此,我决定用一个“蝴蝶策略”+“对角策略”的组合,来增大收益概率。</b></p> <p>对角策略如下</p> <p>卖出一张 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220429%2069.0%20CALL\">$KO 20220429 69.0 CALL$</a>,买入一张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220506%2066.0%20CALL\">$KO 20220506 66.0 CALL$</a></p> <p>其收益情况如下:<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/461ec3cd9c580b588e7b95a0e2e7bb61\" tg-width=\"1477\" tg-height=\"727\"></p> <p>蝴蝶策略,采用5月6日的期权组合:买入一张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220506%2063.0%20PUT\">$KO 20220506 63.0 PUT$</a>,卖出两张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220506%2067.0%20PUT\">$KO 20220506 67.0 PUT$</a>,买入一张<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/KO%2020220506%2071.0%20PUT\">$KO 20220506 71.0 PUT$</a></p> <p>收益情况如下:<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a57f59ade527f7a3a0af19744d4beb4\" tg-width=\"1474\" tg-height=\"707\"></p> <p>如果把两个组合加在一起,盈亏平衡点是73.59美元以及65.95美元,投入成本312美元,最大收益181美元。</p> <p>虽然从收益比来看,并不是最优秀的。但是扩大了上限的盈利区间。<img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/147e934c5c71be3fe5dd7e059003239c\" tg-width=\"1488\" tg-height=\"736\"></p> <p>最后还要提醒大家以下几点:</p> <ul> \n <li>期权是概率的游戏,并不能保证一定盈利;</li> \n <li>组合要求的保证金不同,当然有组合保证金的减免;</li> \n</ul> <p>同时,没有选择末日期权,就还有最大的朋友——时间。未必需要到最后一天卖出,我们可以选择任何盈利时间点平仓。</p> <p>另外,SNAP的财报策略今晚见分晓。</p> <p>Happy Trading</p> <p></p></body></html>","text":"如果我住在上海,可能在一个月前就会大量买入$可口可乐(KO)$ 的股票,倒不是为了学巴菲特价值投资,而是没想到老树逢春,能在中美两国同时“抗通胀”。 虽然很不明白3月初可口可乐股票下跌的原因,但即使从3月下旬以来买入,至今也有近10%的收益,一个月而已! 问世间,一只股票能有多少个10%的涨幅? 更何况,KO还是一直长期分红的价值股,即使现在股价达到史上最高,股息率仍有2.66%,而其5年平均的股息率要达到3.66%,这可是$ARK Innovation ETF(ARKK)$ 的木头姐想都不敢想的收益啊! KO的分红史 下周一盘前,可口可乐将公布今年Q1的财报。 很少有公司在周一盘前公布财报,因为这显然不是一个交投活跃的时间段。但以可口可乐目前的地位和状态来看,已然是美股市场遗世独立的明珠,也不用操心那么多。爱它的人那么多,如果跌多了,价值者们会纷至沓来加仓。 更何况,食品的通胀根本没有要结束的意思。 既然如此,作为期权玩家的我,有什么好的对策呢? 我打算做一个单纯的多头。 只要周末市场不变天,只要财报不至于太委屈(我想不到可口可乐业绩不及预期的理由,即便是Costa也该在国外疫情后重获新生),用多头思维总是好的。 不过期权交易,依然还是概率的问题。 因此,我决定用一个“蝴蝶策略”+“对角策略”的组合,来增大收益概率。 对角策略如下 卖出一张 $KO 20220429 69.0 CALL$,买入一张$KO 20220506 66.0 CALL$ 其收益情况如下: 蝴蝶策略,采用5月6日的期权组合:买入一张$KO 20220506 63.0 PUT$,卖出两张$KO 20220506 67.0 PUT$,买入一张$KO 20220506 71.0 PUT$ 收益情况如下: 如果把两个组合加在一起,盈亏平衡点是73.59美元以及65.95美元,投入成本312美元,最大收益181美元。 虽然从收益比来看,并不是最优秀的。但是扩大了上限的盈利区间。 最后还要提醒大家以下几点: 期权是概率的游戏,并不能保证一定盈利; 组合要求的保证金不同,当然有组合保证金的减免; 同时,没有选择末日期权,就还有最大的朋友——时间。未必需要到最后一天卖出,我们可以选择任何盈利时间点平仓。 另外,SNAP的财报策略今晚见分晓。 Happy Trading","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611731694","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["ARKK","KO"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1596,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/618036064"}
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