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@美股解毒师：劳动力通货膨胀到底意味着什么？

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$沃尔玛(WMT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">$塔吉特(TGT)$</a> 等商超，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 等科技巨头，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> 等大银行。</p> <p>要知道，除去疫情爆发初期的突如其来的打击，美国的失业率近几年一直呈现下降趋势。而疫情带来的影响也在近几个季度慢慢恢复。</p> <p>通过每周的<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>空缺职位劳动力</b></span>与<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>失业率</b></span>之间的关系，我们可以看到，目前<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>空缺职位已经升至失业人数的2倍</b></span>，远远高于疫情前的水平，甚至也是2000年以来最高位置。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/979bbe1a2a59e660a20e09a77f2e6cd1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p>虽然这些数据可能有延迟，并且未必代表当下的真实经济情况。与5年期通胀保护国债<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LTPZ\">$PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index(LTPZ)$</a> 的关系，以及与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 大盘的关系，都还没有产生同步，后两者今年的下跌拐点已现，而前者的拐点仍未出现。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d825b1fe46a16de77a027ce54d9aaf6\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb20e020c076b58b3f1a3e3741f2807\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p>但是目前来看，空缺职位远高于失业人数，也会带来人力成本的上升。劳动力市场炙手可热，这也难怪JPM GS MS等大投行都在不断涨薪抢人。</p> <p>不过，领先指标表明劳动力强度的峰值也可能马上迎来拐点，这便意味着继续加息会损害失业率，甚至不排除出现就业率一下子崩盘的情况。而对企业来说，目前高薪吸引的人才，也会持续对利润造成影响。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>Q1财报季大部分都已经结束，本季呈现的一个特点是企业成本上升，利润下降。不少公司利润意外的低于预期，或者陷入亏损，除了原材料成本上升的“通胀”外，还有人力成本上升带来的“劳动力通胀”。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">$沃尔玛(WMT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TGT\">$塔吉特(TGT)$</a> 等商超，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 等科技巨头，以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">$摩根大通(JPM)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">$高盛(GS)$</a> 等大银行。</p> <p>要知道，除去疫情爆发初期的突如其来的打击，美国的失业率近几年一直呈现下降趋势。而疫情带来的影响也在近几个季度慢慢恢复。</p> <p>通过每周的<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>空缺职位劳动力</b></span>与<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>失业率</b></span>之间的关系，我们可以看到，目前<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>空缺职位已经升至失业人数的2倍</b></span>，远远高于疫情前的水平，甚至也是2000年以来最高位置。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/979bbe1a2a59e660a20e09a77f2e6cd1\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p>虽然这些数据可能有延迟，并且未必代表当下的真实经济情况。与5年期通胀保护国债<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LTPZ\">$PIMCO 15+ Year U.S. TIPS Index(LTPZ)$</a> 的关系，以及与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 大盘的关系，都还没有产生同步，后两者今年的下跌拐点已现，而前者的拐点仍未出现。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d825b1fe46a16de77a027ce54d9aaf6\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fb20e020c076b58b3f1a3e3741f2807\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p>但是目前来看，空缺职位远高于失业人数，也会带来人力成本的上升。劳动力市场炙手可热，这也难怪JPM GS MS等大投行都在不断涨薪抢人。</p> 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不过，领先指标表明劳动力强度的峰值也可能马上迎来拐点，这便意味着继续加息会损害失业率，甚至不排除出现就业率一下子崩盘的情况。而对企业来说，目前高薪吸引的人才，也会持续对利润造成影响。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614751689","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["TGT","AMZN","LTPZ","AAPL","JPM",".SPX","GS","WMT"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1036,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/617006781"}