大雁塔
2022-05-09
俄乌战争，影响美股标普500指数下跌，俄国和美国经济战，美股已进入熊市，建议投资者将有价值的股票长期持有。
@Ivan_甘灿荣：
周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子，市场可能出现新一轮波动
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铑金
2022-05-10
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<p>此前市场有很多传言，其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束，宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷，鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到；其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击，若此传言属实，则再一次调动市场的战争情绪，那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演；其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”，提振国内士气，向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限，但长期影响实为利多效应，毕竟欧美也不会示弱，造成战争持续且加剧。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e7669d96dec5244dbe9366b57f3a9f8\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880b0bb388505f086a7501010a1275e5\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p>一、对美股指的影响</p> <p> </p> <p>上周说过，若美国“软着陆”则“保股市，商品崩”；若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨，股市崩”。无论哪种路径，总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看，美股指又到了下跌的边缘。</p> <p>回看我前两周的帖子，标普颈线位置在4200附近，道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置，如果没有暴力反弹远离该处，那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下，避险是首位，有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下，会远超预期的。</p> <p>策略上，以标普为例，以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线，在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈，但也不着急做多，多看少动为佳。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052c14cf947f577dc4373de6fbe14b24\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p>二、对能源的影响</p> <p>毫无疑问，战事升级提振战争情绪，能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价，或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能，只不过波动会很大，大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上，10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线，油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线，因此（周五的收盘价）有效跌穿该线则是多头小心的时候，届时再观察消息面而定。当前10周均线价格在100美元附近，因此以100为标准观察行情即可。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd95458bfbf6eb460aab06b06f0781ff\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">三、贵金属</p> <p>贵金属此前由于美联储加息预期的消息已大幅下跌，因此若避险情绪再度升温，则利好贵金属价格。那么黄金就是较好的抄底标的。当然2000是黄金重要的分水岭，站得住咱们再来看是否大行情，若否，还是以反弹行情来看待。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97df939c5b8f50ffecfd6c8fb822894c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCMAIN\">$黄金主连 2206(GCmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLMAIN\">$WTI原油主连 2206(CLmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子，5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日，且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵（该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵）。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注，但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态，且并无谈妥的迹象，因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候，因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。</p> <p>此前市场有很多传言，其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束，宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷，鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到；其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击，若此传言属实，则再一次调动市场的战争情绪，那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演；其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”，提振国内士气，向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限，但长期影响实为利多效应，毕竟欧美也不会示弱，造成战争持续且加剧。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e7669d96dec5244dbe9366b57f3a9f8\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/880b0bb388505f086a7501010a1275e5\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p>一、对美股指的影响</p> <p> </p> <p>上周说过，若美国“软着陆”则“保股市，商品崩”；若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨，股市崩”。无论哪种路径，总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看，美股指又到了下跌的边缘。</p> <p>回看我前两周的帖子，标普颈线位置在4200附近，道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置，如果没有暴力反弹远离该处，那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下，避险是首位，有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下，会远超预期的。</p> <p>策略上，以标普为例，以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线，在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈，但也不着急做多，多看少动为佳。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052c14cf947f577dc4373de6fbe14b24\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p>二、对能源的影响</p> <p>毫无疑问，战事升级提振战争情绪，能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价，或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能，只不过波动会很大，大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上，10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线，油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线，因此（周五的收盘价）有效跌穿该线则是多头小心的时候，届时再观察消息面而定。当前10周均线价格在100美元附近，因此以100为标准观察行情即可。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd95458bfbf6eb460aab06b06f0781ff\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\">三、贵金属</p> <p>贵金属此前由于美联储加息预期的消息已大幅下跌，因此若避险情绪再度升温，则利好贵金属价格。那么黄金就是较好的抄底标的。当然2000是黄金重要的分水岭，站得住咱们再来看是否大行情，若否，还是以反弹行情来看待。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97df939c5b8f50ffecfd6c8fb822894c\" tg-width=\"-1\" tg-height=\"-1\"></p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GCMAIN\">$黄金主连 2206(GCmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLMAIN\">$WTI原油主连 2206(CLmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"周一是俄罗斯的重磅日子，5月9日是俄罗斯卫国战争胜利日，且当日俄罗斯将会在首都莫斯科红场举行阅兵（该日子的重要性可类似于咱们中国国庆阅兵）。在常态年份咱们一般不过多关注，但目前俄乌冲突正处于胶着状态，且并无谈妥的迹象，因此该重要日子一般都会是秀肌肉甚至是重要表态的时候，因此下周一很可能会决定未来一段时间的市场动向。 此前市场有很多传言，其一是俄罗斯打算在5月9日谈判结束，宣布乌克兰特别军事行动取得大捷，鸣金收兵。目前来看该传言显然无法达到；其二是俄方打算在5月9日升级乌克兰战争由局部打击变成全面出击，若此传言属实，则再一次调动市场的战争情绪，那么油价涨、黄金涨、股市崩将再一次重演；其三是俄方在当日宣布特别军事行动所取得的“重大战果”，提振国内士气，向欧美乌展示更多谈判的底气及底牌。若此情况可能对短期市场影响有限，但长期影响实为利多效应，毕竟欧美也不会示弱，造成战争持续且加剧。 一、对美股指的影响 上周说过，若美国“软着陆”则“保股市，商品崩”；若“硬着陆”则“商品续涨，股市崩”。无论哪种路径，总有一类资产价格受到牵连。而从上周的走势看，美股指又到了下跌的边缘。 回看我前两周的帖子，标普颈线位置在4200附近，道指则在33000附近。现在两个指数均跌穿该颈线位置，如果没有暴力反弹远离该处，那么美股指就很难有好表现了。在大变局的时代下，避险是首位，有时候市场波动在某些消息的助推下，会远超预期的。 策略上，以标普为例，以20日均线作为跟踪止盈止损路线，在此线之下做空或对冲。此线之上则空头止盈，但也不着急做多，多看少动为佳。 二、对能源的影响 毫无疑问，战事升级提振战争情绪，能源价格看空就变得困难。由于各大投行均极力唱多油价，或许再一次发生逼仓行情也是可能，只不过波动会很大，大家要小心处理。跟踪策略上，10周均线仍是很好的跟踪均线，油价此轮上涨均未跌穿该线，因此（周五的收盘价）有效跌穿该线则是多头小心的时候，届时再观察消息面而定。当前10周均线价格在100美元附近，因此以100为标准观察行情即可。 三、贵金属 贵金属此前由于美联储加息预期的消息已大幅下跌，因此若避险情绪再度升温，则利好贵金属价格。那么黄金就是较好的抄底标的。当然2000是黄金重要的分水岭，站得住咱们再来看是否大行情，若否，还是以反弹行情来看待。 $黄金主连 2206(GCmain)$ $WTI原油主连 2206(CLmain)$ $NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ $道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ 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