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@Ivan_甘灿荣：聊聊原油上涨的核心逻辑，可能还有向上空间

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kakatoin
2021-02-19
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<h4><b>基本面情况</b></h4> <p>最近美国总统尘埃落定以后，基本上都是利好消息，无论疫苗接种还是中美关系，还有美国1.9万亿的刺激方案等等，都是利好经济的消息。而OPEC+产油国方面也是态度强硬的减产，自从沙特2月份自愿减产100万桶/日的强势操作以来，油价就变得很难下跌。</p> <p>其实油价的核心问题仍在于减产，减产的控制阀在于库存。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2110553e86ddbbed894db9121644ed05\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"544\"></p> <p>根据美国EIA数据显示，原油库存自2015年进入新平衡状态以来，库存变化一直处于区间变化当中。当前产油国虽然减产执行力度较强，但库存也只减少到区间中部，所以只要减产不放松，当前价格仍有可能继续上冲。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eda08087bf5b5122dd519a38a129b4a\" tg-width=\"2228\" tg-height=\"1500\">如果库存运行情况和2017年时的油价类似的话，那么当前正处于原油库存下降周期，上次原油库存下降周期是由特朗普要求油价上涨开始到制裁伊朗时结束，历时16个月。本次库存下降（减产）周期，估计也在16个月左右，到了年中，疫苗接种进度加快，经济修复得差不多，OPEC+继续减产的理由将变得不充分了。所以原油的高点时间认为在8月份左右。</p> <h4><b>技术情况</b></h4> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/098851d3217e0cd4450a596ea5bb8a01\" tg-width=\"2225\" tg-height=\"1505\"></p> 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<p>最近美国总统尘埃落定以后，基本上都是利好消息，无论疫苗接种还是中美关系，还有美国1.9万亿的刺激方案等等，都是利好经济的消息。而OPEC+产油国方面也是态度强硬的减产，自从沙特2月份自愿减产100万桶/日的强势操作以来，油价就变得很难下跌。</p> <p>其实油价的核心问题仍在于减产，减产的控制阀在于库存。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2110553e86ddbbed894db9121644ed05\" tg-width=\"1069\" tg-height=\"544\"></p> <p>根据美国EIA数据显示，原油库存自2015年进入新平衡状态以来，库存变化一直处于区间变化当中。当前产油国虽然减产执行力度较强，但库存也只减少到区间中部，所以只要减产不放松，当前价格仍有可能继续上冲。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eda08087bf5b5122dd519a38a129b4a\" tg-width=\"2228\" tg-height=\"1500\">如果库存运行情况和2017年时的油价类似的话，那么当前正处于原油库存下降周期，上次原油库存下降周期是由特朗普要求油价上涨开始到制裁伊朗时结束，历时16个月。本次库存下降（减产）周期，估计也在16个月左右，到了年中，疫苗接种进度加快，经济修复得差不多，OPEC+继续减产的理由将变得不充分了。所以原油的高点时间认为在8月份左右。</p> <h4><b>技术情况</b></h4> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/098851d3217e0cd4450a596ea5bb8a01\" tg-width=\"2225\" tg-height=\"1505\"></p> <p>只是预期到高点时间是不够的，油价有可能在60美元附近开始出现大幅震荡行情。如上图。所以当前油价是很乐观就比较困难了，现在OPEC+能够维持减产规模都很不错了，增加减产规模的可能性很低，而且市场开始担心沙特的自愿减产100万桶会随时结束，这都会对油价产生直接的反转影响。所以期望继续看涨的朋友，请用期权买方，如交易USO的期权等，后续行情不会像此前那么顺畅的。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facfa79f78df74444e46a73cf2cc27d3\" tg-width=\"2224\" tg-height=\"1500\"></p> <p>油价当前已处于长期趋势线的边缘，鉴于此前几次均对油价产生快速回撤的影响，因此短期内要担心油价的调整，调整过后继续抄底做多至8月份才是上策。</p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRUD.UK\">$WTI原油ETF(CRUD.UK)$</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$</a> &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/BZmain\">$布油现金主连(BZmain)$</a></p> <p></p></body></html>","text":"春节期间，油价继续上涨，从周涨幅来说属于常规操作，大概涨了5%左右，但由于连续上涨，市场热情一下子被点燃起来，似乎去年发生过的事情都没有出现过一样。后续还能不能涨?涨多高?如果调整能调多深？下面来看看。 基本面情况 最近美国总统尘埃落定以后，基本上都是利好消息，无论疫苗接种还是中美关系，还有美国1.9万亿的刺激方案等等，都是利好经济的消息。而OPEC+产油国方面也是态度强硬的减产，自从沙特2月份自愿减产100万桶/日的强势操作以来，油价就变得很难下跌。 其实油价的核心问题仍在于减产，减产的控制阀在于库存。 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