美国工厂良率不成问题_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

美国工厂良率不成问题的情况下，人工成本的高企完全可以转嫁到下游，台积电股价易涨难跌是确定性奇高的事儿，能涨多少需要取决于美政府对公司的态度，关系紧张股价下跌时就是加仓时

台积电的最大危机

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>暂时找不到竞争对手。</p><p>全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。</p><p>台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。</p><p>张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好就好；而三星与英特尔不同，就其所知，三星主要是技术性的问题，并不是行政策略的问题。</p><p>供应链认为，三星与英特尔都是IDM模式，难取得更多外部客户订单，三星因制程技术推进停滞，低估台积电真正实力，此前希望以3纳米GAA制程弯道超越台积电，但至今仍未有大单签下，拖累手机、AI芯片发展，巨额资本支出完全无法回收，加上存储芯片又在HBM竞争落后SK海力士，恶性循环下，晶圆代工亏损恐超乎市场预期，估计2025年市占将跌破1成。</p><p>英特尔问题更大，CEO人选难找，董事会没有找到人选就突然换掉，虽说是止血，但也引发英特尔内部士气大跌，如张忠谋所言，英特尔的问题是策略和经营团队，制程技术与所拥专利仍相当强大，只是没有办法施展实力，外部客户不会选择效率低、成本高与可能争利的晶圆代工厂，英特尔卡关多年，至今仍未找到分拆制造、设计的破关方法，拖越久将令亏损黑洞更大。</p><p>目前市场认为，台积电最大危机是美国工厂扩建与获利表现，以及美国政府的态度，但目前来看，正因三星、英特尔弯道翻车，客户没其他选择下，台积电能转嫁压力、成本予客户身上。</p><p>此外，台积电的美系客户占营收比重逾7成，如果台积电不妙，美系大厂也不好过，对美国政府来说更是不乐见，因此台积电手中也有筹码，美国政府想要的是制造，那就给他，首当其冲的会是美系厂商，台积电拉高晶圆代工技术门槛与资本投入门槛下，如其所言已无竞争对手。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电的最大危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-11 07:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b><strong>芯财富</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>外界预估，三星晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而英特尔迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2490075458","content_text":"外界预估，三星晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而英特尔迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好就好；而三星与英特尔不同，就其所知，三星主要是技术性的问题，并不是行政策略的问题。供应链认为，三星与英特尔都是IDM模式，难取得更多外部客户订单，三星因制程技术推进停滞，低估台积电真正实力，此前希望以3纳米GAA制程弯道超越台积电，但至今仍未有大单签下，拖累手机、AI芯片发展，巨额资本支出完全无法回收，加上存储芯片又在HBM竞争落后SK海力士，恶性循环下，晶圆代工亏损恐超乎市场预期，估计2025年市占将跌破1成。英特尔问题更大，CEO人选难找，董事会没有找到人选就突然换掉，虽说是止血，但也引发英特尔内部士气大跌，如张忠谋所言，英特尔的问题是策略和经营团队，制程技术与所拥专利仍相当强大，只是没有办法施展实力，外部客户不会选择效率低、成本高与可能争利的晶圆代工厂，英特尔卡关多年，至今仍未找到分拆制造、设计的破关方法，拖越久将令亏损黑洞更大。目前市场认为，台积电最大危机是美国工厂扩建与获利表现，以及美国政府的态度，但目前来看，正因三星、英特尔弯道翻车，客户没其他选择下，台积电能转嫁压力、成本予客户身上。此外，台积电的美系客户占营收比重逾7成，如果台积电不妙，美系大厂也不好过，对美国政府来说更是不乐见，因此台积电手中也有筹码，美国政府想要的是制造，那就给他，首当其冲的会是美系厂商，台积电拉高晶圆代工技术门槛与资本投入门槛下，如其所言已无竞争对手。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":85,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":164,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/380792078569576"}