台积电的最大危机

芯财富12-11

外界预估，三星晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而英特尔迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

ylin211
12-12
ylin211
美国工厂良率不成问题的情况下，人工成本的高企完全可以转嫁到下游，台积电股价易涨难跌是确定性奇高的事儿，能涨多少需要取决于美政府对公司的态度，关系紧张股价下跌时就是加仓时

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2490075458?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-12-11 07:00","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2490075458","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"台积电的最大危机","media":"芯财富","content":"<div>\n<p>外界预估，三星晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而英特尔迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电的最大危机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电的最大危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-11 07:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b><strong>芯财富</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>外界预估，三星晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而英特尔迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IE00BQXX3D17.EUR","symbol_name":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b","article_id":"2490075458","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2490075458","pubTimestamp":1733871638,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。目前市场认为，台积电最大危机是美国工厂扩建与获利表现，以及美国政府的态度，但目前来看，正因三星、英特尔弯道翻车，客户没其他选择下，台积电能转嫁压力、成本予客户身上。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","LU2491049909.HKD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2491050071.SGD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0264606111.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 USD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","INTC":"英特尔","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","BK4591":"室温超导概念","TSM":"台积电","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG)       ACC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC"},"translate_title":"TSMC's biggest crisis","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1,"INTC":0.9,"03145":0.6},"content_text":"外界预估，三星晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而英特尔迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好就好；而三星与英特尔不同，就其所知，三星主要是技术性的问题，并不是行政策略的问题。供应链认为，三星与英特尔都是IDM模式，难取得更多外部客户订单，三星因制程技术推进停滞，低估台积电真正实力，此前希望以3纳米GAA制程弯道超越台积电，但至今仍未有大单签下，拖累手机、AI芯片发展，巨额资本支出完全无法回收，加上存储芯片又在HBM竞争落后SK海力士，恶性循环下，晶圆代工亏损恐超乎市场预期，估计2025年市占将跌破1成。英特尔问题更大，CEO人选难找，董事会没有找到人选就突然换掉，虽说是止血，但也引发英特尔内部士气大跌，如张忠谋所言，英特尔的问题是策略和经营团队，制程技术与所拥专利仍相当强大，只是没有办法施展实力，外部客户不会选择效率低、成本高与可能争利的晶圆代工厂，英特尔卡关多年，至今仍未找到分拆制造、设计的破关方法，拖越久将令亏损黑洞更大。目前市场认为，台积电最大危机是美国工厂扩建与获利表现，以及美国政府的态度，但目前来看，正因三星、英特尔弯道翻车，客户没其他选择下，台积电能转嫁压力、成本予客户身上。此外，台积电的美系客户占营收比重逾7成，如果台积电不妙，美系大厂也不好过，对美国政府来说更是不乐见，因此台积电手中也有筹码，美国政府想要的是制造，那就给他，首当其冲的会是美系厂商，台积电拉高晶圆代工技术门槛与资本投入门槛下，如其所言已无竞争对手。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":380792078569576,"gmtCreate":1733975918443,"gmtModify":1733976190130,"author":{"id":"4111302797871770","authorId":"4111302797871770","name":"ylin211","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00553775bc8dd1785711ed6065ac8206","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6444b4970948c1077534c593eccd6d16","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4111302797871770","authorIdStr":"4111302797871770"},"htmlText":"美国工厂良率不成问题的情况下，人工成本的高企完全可以转嫁到下游，台积电股价易涨难跌是确定性奇高的事儿，能涨多少需要取决于美政府对公司的态度，关系紧张股价下跌时就是加仓时","listText":"美国工厂良率不成问题的情况下，人工成本的高企完全可以转嫁到下游，台积电股价易涨难跌是确定性奇高的事儿，能涨多少需要取决于美政府对公司的态度，关系紧张股价下跌时就是加仓时","text":"美国工厂良率不成问题的情况下，人工成本的高企完全可以转嫁到下游，台积电股价易涨难跌是确定性奇高的事儿，能涨多少需要取决于美政府对公司的态度，关系紧张股价下跌时就是加仓时","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/380792078569576","repostId":2490075458,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2490075458","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733871638,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2490075458?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-11 07:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电的最大危机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2490075458","media":"芯财富","summary":"全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。目前市场认为，台积电最大危机是美国工厂扩建与获利表现，以及美国政府的态度，但目前来看，正因三星、英特尔弯道翻车，客户没其他选择下，台积电能转嫁压力、成本予客户身上。","content":"<p>外界预估，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e38ba9e88d609837b22248fee0cb5b\" tg-width=\"540\" tg-height=\"360\"></p><p>全球晶圆代工中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>暂时找不到竞争对手。</p><p>全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。</p><p>台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。</p><p>张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好就好；而三星与英特尔不同，就其所知，三星主要是技术性的问题，并不是行政策略的问题。</p><p>供应链认为，三星与英特尔都是IDM模式，难取得更多外部客户订单，三星因制程技术推进停滞，低估台积电真正实力，此前希望以3纳米GAA制程弯道超越台积电，但至今仍未有大单签下，拖累手机、AI芯片发展，巨额资本支出完全无法回收，加上存储芯片又在HBM竞争落后SK海力士，恶性循环下，晶圆代工亏损恐超乎市场预期，估计2025年市占将跌破1成。</p><p>英特尔问题更大，CEO人选难找，董事会没有找到人选就突然换掉，虽说是止血，但也引发英特尔内部士气大跌，如张忠谋所言，英特尔的问题是策略和经营团队，制程技术与所拥专利仍相当强大，只是没有办法施展实力，外部客户不会选择效率低、成本高与可能争利的晶圆代工厂，英特尔卡关多年，至今仍未找到分拆制造、设计的破关方法，拖越久将令亏损黑洞更大。</p><p>目前市场认为，台积电最大危机是美国工厂扩建与获利表现，以及美国政府的态度，但目前来看，正因三星、英特尔弯道翻车，客户没其他选择下，台积电能转嫁压力、成本予客户身上。</p><p>此外，台积电的美系客户占营收比重逾7成，如果台积电不妙，美系大厂也不好过，对美国政府来说更是不乐见，因此台积电手中也有筹码，美国政府想要的是制造，那就给他，首当其冲的会是美系厂商，台积电拉高晶圆代工技术门槛与资本投入门槛下，如其所言已无竞争对手。</p>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电的最大危机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电的最大危机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-11 07:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b><strong>芯财富</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>外界预估，三星晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而英特尔迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU1868837722.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","IE00B5TLWC47.USD":"BNY MELLON LONG-TERM GLOBAL EQUITY \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0572940350.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A3 SGD","LU2491049909.HKD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2458330169.SGD":"FRANKLIN SHARIAH TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2491050071.SGD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1282649067.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AMG\" (USD) INC A","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","BK4512":"苹果概念","LU0264606111.USD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 USD","LU0889565833.HKD":"FRANKLIN TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU1868838027.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"8\" (USD) ACC","INTC":"英特尔","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","LU0056508442.USD":"贝莱德世界科技基金A2","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU0823414551.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU1803068979.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Technology A (acc) SGD-H1","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU1712237335.SGD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity H-R-NPF/A SGD","BK4591":"室温超导概念","TSM":"台积电","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU2506951792.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (HKDHDG)       ACC","IE00BYQQ9H92.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2357125470.USD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CLASSIC RH\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930813.SGD":"FRANKLIN TEMPLETON SHARIAH GLOBAL EQUITY \"AS\" (SGD) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0384037296.USD":"ALLIANZ ASIAN MULTI INCOME PLUS \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU2294711713.HKD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"C\" (HKD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20241211070145a1e46c8c&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2490075458","content_text":"外界预估，三星晶圆代工2024年市占率恐跌破10%以下，而英特尔迟迟无法分拆晶圆代工事业，整体亏损将持续扩大。全球晶圆代工中，台积电暂时找不到竞争对手。全球AI芯片客户几乎都在手中，2纳米制程将如期登场下，已远抛对手在后。台积电创办人张忠谋一针见血点出三星、英特尔的晶圆代工为何受困。张忠谋指出，英特尔没有策略，也没有CEO，就像4年前一样，董事会对未来策略没有定见，而在选任CEO人选，并不是口才好就好；而三星与英特尔不同，就其所知，三星主要是技术性的问题，并不是行政策略的问题。供应链认为，三星与英特尔都是IDM模式，难取得更多外部客户订单，三星因制程技术推进停滞，低估台积电真正实力，此前希望以3纳米GAA制程弯道超越台积电，但至今仍未有大单签下，拖累手机、AI芯片发展，巨额资本支出完全无法回收，加上存储芯片又在HBM竞争落后SK海力士，恶性循环下，晶圆代工亏损恐超乎市场预期，估计2025年市占将跌破1成。英特尔问题更大，CEO人选难找，董事会没有找到人选就突然换掉，虽说是止血，但也引发英特尔内部士气大跌，如张忠谋所言，英特尔的问题是策略和经营团队，制程技术与所拥专利仍相当强大，只是没有办法施展实力，外部客户不会选择效率低、成本高与可能争利的晶圆代工厂，英特尔卡关多年，至今仍未找到分拆制造、设计的破关方法，拖越久将令亏损黑洞更大。目前市场认为，台积电最大危机是美国工厂扩建与获利表现，以及美国政府的态度，但目前来看，正因三星、英特尔弯道翻车，客户没其他选择下，台积电能转嫁压力、成本予客户身上。此外，台积电的美系客户占营收比重逾7成，如果台积电不妙，美系大厂也不好过，对美国政府来说更是不乐见，因此台积电手中也有筹码，美国政府想要的是制造，那就给他，首当其冲的会是美系厂商，台积电拉高晶圆代工技术门槛与资本投入门槛下，如其所言已无竞争对手。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2490075458"}