伊祁放勋
11-21
学习
@期权小班长：
苟过年底，来年再涨
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<a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>财报总体来说不错，不过按往年年底惯例，股价会来回震荡，然后等1月爆发。没上车的可以等回调，上车的可以做双卖薅130～160震荡区间的羊毛。</p><p>从周三的期权开仓明细可以看出，看跌期权放量非常明显，除了我半夜转发的看跌12月140以外，开仓量第二大的看跌组合是买本周到期140put卖本周到期130put。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d540ecfb8ff7f07911ae6fcfa127fd1\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"674\"></p><p>以今天刚开盘表现来说，看跌140这个策略不能算错。但错就错在群众购买热情太高了，区区5%跌幅给买涨了起来。</p><p>跟短期策略相比我更看重的是长期策略。可能也有人注意到了昨晚有大量的远期看跌期权开仓，方向是卖出：</p><p>卖出 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250516 145.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250516%20145.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250516 145.0 PUT$</a> ，成交量4525手</p><p>卖出 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250919 145.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250919 145.0 PUT$ </a> ，成交量1020手</p><p>卖出 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250815 145.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250815 145.0 PUT$ </a> ，成交量2319手</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47c0b98c0f14cc2a03b1765be9c929c\" tg-width=\"2410\" tg-height=\"258\"></p><p>结合已发布财报来看，卖出平价sell put策略非常合理。</p><p>结合前两年英伟达年底表现，股价以区间震荡为主，涨跌震荡幅度大约在10～15%，回调130可抄底，涨到160也不用急追高，1～2月股价会一飞冲天。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc95577d1c28be9a7b4c437b384be67c\" tg-width=\"1984\" tg-height=\"1438\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbb78ca98e70fd483fbc114d9a6a553e\" tg-width=\"2010\" tg-height=\"1452\"></p><p>至于是先涨后跌，还是先回调后反弹就不太重要了，左右都在130～160这个区间内。</p><p>考虑到昨天有那么多put选择看跌130～140区间，这两个月势必要回调一次130。</p><p>2亿哥估计会在明天roll仓，盲猜会roll明年2月到期135call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250221 135.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250221 135.0 CALL$ </a> 。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>周三备兑机构再次roll仓，这次不一样的地方在于，到期日选择两周之后的12月6日，盲猜操盘经理可能要去度假。</p><p>行权价有一点调整，卖出call行权价下调5块，365roll360，买入call上调行权价，405roll425。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20241206 360.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020241206%20360.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20241206 360.0 CALL$</a> </p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20241206 425.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020241206%20425.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20241206 425.0 CALL$</a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a668abd68634f7adb2e8f8194a116e\" tg-width=\"2414\" tg-height=\"260\"></p><p>看来接下来两周要么横盘震荡，要么涨爆400。我依旧选择sell put+buy call 持仓。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>财报总体来说不错，不过按往年年底惯例，股价会来回震荡，然后等1月爆发。没上车的可以等回调，上车的可以做双卖薅130～160震荡区间的羊毛。</p><p>从周三的期权开仓明细可以看出，看跌期权放量非常明显，除了我半夜转发的看跌12月140以外，开仓量第二大的看跌组合是买本周到期140put卖本周到期130put。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d540ecfb8ff7f07911ae6fcfa127fd1\" tg-width=\"1044\" tg-height=\"674\"></p><p>以今天刚开盘表现来说，看跌140这个策略不能算错。但错就错在群众购买热情太高了，区区5%跌幅给买涨了起来。</p><p>跟短期策略相比我更看重的是长期策略。可能也有人注意到了昨晚有大量的远期看跌期权开仓，方向是卖出：</p><p>卖出 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20250516 145.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020250516%20145.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20250516 145.0 PUT$</a> ，成交量4525手</p><p>卖出 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250919 145.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250919 145.0 PUT$ </a> ，成交量1020手</p><p>卖出 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250815 145.0 PUT\">$NVDA 20250815 145.0 PUT$ </a> ，成交量2319手</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47c0b98c0f14cc2a03b1765be9c929c\" tg-width=\"2410\" tg-height=\"258\"></p><p>结合已发布财报来看，卖出平价sell put策略非常合理。</p><p>结合前两年英伟达年底表现，股价以区间震荡为主，涨跌震荡幅度大约在10～15%，回调130可抄底，涨到160也不用急追高，1～2月股价会一飞冲天。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc95577d1c28be9a7b4c437b384be67c\" tg-width=\"1984\" tg-height=\"1438\"></p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbb78ca98e70fd483fbc114d9a6a553e\" tg-width=\"2010\" tg-height=\"1452\"></p><p>至于是先涨后跌，还是先回调后反弹就不太重要了，左右都在130～160这个区间内。</p><p>考虑到昨天有那么多put选择看跌130～140区间，这两个月势必要回调一次130。</p><p>2亿哥估计会在明天roll仓，盲猜会roll明年2月到期135call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20250221 135.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20250221 135.0 CALL$ </a> 。</p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>周三备兑机构再次roll仓，这次不一样的地方在于，到期日选择两周之后的12月6日，盲猜操盘经理可能要去度假。</p><p>行权价有一点调整，卖出call行权价下调5块，365roll360，买入call上调行权价，405roll425。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20241206 360.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020241206%20360.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20241206 360.0 CALL$</a> </p></li><li><p>买 <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA 20241206 425.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSLA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA%2020241206%20425.0%20CALL\">$TSLA 20241206 425.0 CALL$</a> </p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84a668abd68634f7adb2e8f8194a116e\" tg-width=\"2414\" tg-height=\"260\"></p><p>看来接下来两周要么横盘震荡，要么涨爆400。我依旧选择sell put+buy call 持仓。</p></body></html>","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 财报总体来说不错，不过按往年年底惯例，股价会来回震荡，然后等1月爆发。没上车的可以等回调，上车的可以做双卖薅130～160震荡区间的羊毛。 从周三的期权开仓明细可以看出，看跌期权放量非常明显，除了我半夜转发的看跌12月140以外，开仓量第二大的看跌组合是买本周到期140put卖本周到期130put。 以今天刚开盘表现来说，看跌140这个策略不能算错。但错就错在群众购买热情太高了，区区5%跌幅给买涨了起来。 跟短期策略相比我更看重的是长期策略。可能也有人注意到了昨晚有大量的远期看跌期权开仓，方向是卖出： 卖出 $NVDA 20250516 145.0 PUT$ ，成交量4525手 卖出 $NVDA 20250919 145.0 PUT$ ，成交量1020手 卖出 $NVDA 20250815 145.0 PUT$ ，成交量2319手 结合已发布财报来看，卖出平价sell put策略非常合理。 结合前两年英伟达年底表现，股价以区间震荡为主，涨跌震荡幅度大约在10～15%，回调130可抄底，涨到160也不用急追高，1～2月股价会一飞冲天。 至于是先涨后跌，还是先回调后反弹就不太重要了，左右都在130～160这个区间内。 考虑到昨天有那么多put选择看跌130～140区间，这两个月势必要回调一次130。 2亿哥估计会在明天roll仓，盲猜会roll明年2月到期135call $NVDA 20250221 135.0 CALL$ 。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 周三备兑机构再次roll仓，这次不一样的地方在于，到期日选择两周之后的12月6日，盲猜操盘经理可能要去度假。 行权价有一点调整，卖出call行权价下调5块，365roll360，买入call上调行权价，405roll425。 卖 $TSLA 20241206 360.0 CALL$ 买 $TSLA 20241206 425.0 CALL$ 看来接下来两周要么横盘震荡，要么涨爆400。我依旧选择sell put+buy call 持仓。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373469457997832","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","TSLA","NVDA 20250815 145.0 PUT","NVDA 20250221 135.0 CALL","NVDA 20250516 145.0 PUT","NVDA 20250919 145.0 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