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@美股解毒师：【限售解禁】三月大窗口期将至，迎来多少解禁？

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<p>接下来的行情会怎么走，现在没有人知道。但是从消息层面上，有一些明牌还是值得看一看的，比如，即将到来的大窗口期解禁潮。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b272759defb082a0c3642e426e495d0\" tg-width=\"333\" tg-height=\"500\"></p> <p>2020年是个IPO大年，而9月也是IPO数量较多的月份。同时，2020年对不少公司带来的现金流打击不小，因此一些公司选择了增发来加强现金流。</p> <p>我们统计了一下，这176家公司中有61家，自IPO或增发以来的收益率都超过50%，其中高的有超过300%、500%的。换句话说，前期参与的股东收益颇丰。</p> <p>重要公司（括号里为IPO或增发以来表现）</p> <h4>第一周：</h4> <ol> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">$龙湖地产(00960)$</a> （-10.43%）</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">$药明生物(02269)$</a> （80.49%）</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> (27%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">$达达集团(DADA)$</a> (-17.26%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09923\">$移卡(09923)$</a> (160.3%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNR\">$燃石医学(BNR)$</a> (22.64%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> (2.9%)</li> \n</ol> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd9d09794f4b641408b986a4e2fa209\" tg-width=\"1186\" tg-height=\"925\"></p> <h4>第二周：</h4> <ol> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">$农夫山泉(09633)$</a> (192.79%）</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a> (5.15%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06185\">$康希诺生物-B(06185)$</a> (116.24%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">$Datadog(DDOG)$</a> (289.07%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> (41.13%)</li> \n</ol> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5715c71193d4ae8f21315929c682f30\" tg-width=\"1186\" tg-height=\"1816\"></p> <h4>第三周：</h4> <ol> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FROG\">$JFrog Ltd(FROG)$</a> （51.91%）</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a> (-9.95%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a> (141.61%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a> (41.26%)</li> \n</ol> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8617d37d05fca9e555b2b02d2576afd\" tg-width=\"1298\" tg-height=\"1420\"></p> <h4>第四周：</h4> <ol> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> (81%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09969\">$诺诚健华-B(09969)$</a> (142.46%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">$明源云(00909)$</a> (231.52%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">$永利度假村(WYNN)$</a> (7.53%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$普拉格能源(PLUG)$</a> (-14.02%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BQ\">$波奇宠物(BQ)$</a> (-4.9%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CD\">$秦淮数据(CD)$</a> (62.37%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YALA\">$Yalla Group(YALA)$</a> (279.6%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LXEH\">$丽翔教育(LXEH)$</a> (-9.62%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NNDM\">$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$</a> (503.04%)</li> \n</ol> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d83f094f2bb05f0f7bbaac15659460\" tg-width=\"1298\" tg-height=\"1783\"></p> <p><i>最后再说明一下：</i></p> <ul> \n <li>市值越高、流通股本比例越高的公司，在限售股解禁之后也不会太有压力</li> \n <li>涨幅较大的公司，虽然收益颇丰，但未必代表一定会有大股东抛售，因为公司业绩好、潜力大，股东更愿意拿在手上</li> \n <li>出现跌幅的公司并不代表没有解禁压力，垃圾反而容易遭抛弃；</li> \n <li>此外，股权结构复杂、分散，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>二级市场争议较大、股东意见不统一的公司，往往是面临解禁压力最大的</b></span>（确定性较低）。</li> \n</ul> <p>虽然有点危言耸听，但3月份可能只是这个前期股东变现大窗口期的开始。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>2021年的前两个月，很多投资者都实现了媲美全年的收益率，于是关注风险、降低回撤就成了今年聪明投资者最关注的议题。</p> <p>接下来的行情会怎么走，现在没有人知道。但是从消息层面上，有一些明牌还是值得看一看的，比如，即将到来的大窗口期解禁潮。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b272759defb082a0c3642e426e495d0\" tg-width=\"333\" tg-height=\"500\"></p> <p>2020年是个IPO大年，而9月也是IPO数量较多的月份。同时，2020年对不少公司带来的现金流打击不小，因此一些公司选择了增发来加强现金流。</p> <p>我们统计了一下，这176家公司中有61家，自IPO或增发以来的收益率都超过50%，其中高的有超过300%、500%的。换句话说，前期参与的股东收益颇丰。</p> <p>重要公司（括号里为IPO或增发以来表现）</p> <h4>第一周：</h4> <ol> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">$龙湖地产(00960)$</a> （-10.43%）</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">$药明生物(02269)$</a> （80.49%）</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> (27%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DADA\">$达达集团(DADA)$</a> (-17.26%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09923\">$移卡(09923)$</a> (160.3%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNR\">$燃石医学(BNR)$</a> (22.64%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> (2.9%)</li> \n</ol> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd9d09794f4b641408b986a4e2fa209\" tg-width=\"1186\" tg-height=\"925\"></p> <h4>第二周：</h4> <ol> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09633\">$农夫山泉(09633)$</a> (192.79%）</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00241\">$阿里健康(00241)$</a> (5.15%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06185\">$康希诺生物-B(06185)$</a> (116.24%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">$Datadog(DDOG)$</a> (289.07%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> (41.13%)</li> \n</ol> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5715c71193d4ae8f21315929c682f30\" tg-width=\"1186\" tg-height=\"1816\"></p> <h4>第三周：</h4> <ol> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FROG\">$JFrog Ltd(FROG)$</a> （51.91%）</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\">$Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$</a> (-9.95%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">$Snowflake(SNOW)$</a> (141.61%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a> (41.26%)</li> \n</ol> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8617d37d05fca9e555b2b02d2576afd\" tg-width=\"1298\" tg-height=\"1420\"></p> <h4>第四周：</h4> <ol> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> (81%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09969\">$诺诚健华-B(09969)$</a> (142.46%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00909\">$明源云(00909)$</a> (231.52%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WYNN\">$永利度假村(WYNN)$</a> (7.53%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLUG\">$普拉格能源(PLUG)$</a> (-14.02%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BQ\">$波奇宠物(BQ)$</a> (-4.9%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CD\">$秦淮数据(CD)$</a> (62.37%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YALA\">$Yalla Group(YALA)$</a> (279.6%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LXEH\">$丽翔教育(LXEH)$</a> (-9.62%)</li> \n <li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NNDM\">$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$</a> (503.04%)</li> \n</ol> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66d83f094f2bb05f0f7bbaac15659460\" tg-width=\"1298\" tg-height=\"1783\"></p> <p><i>最后再说明一下：</i></p> <ul> \n <li>市值越高、流通股本比例越高的公司，在限售股解禁之后也不会太有压力</li> \n <li>涨幅较大的公司，虽然收益颇丰，但未必代表一定会有大股东抛售，因为公司业绩好、潜力大，股东更愿意拿在手上</li> \n <li>出现跌幅的公司并不代表没有解禁压力，垃圾反而容易遭抛弃；</li> \n <li>此外，股权结构复杂、分散，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,128,0,1);\"><b>二级市场争议较大、股东意见不统一的公司，往往是面临解禁压力最大的</b></span>（确定性较低）。</li> \n</ul> <p>虽然有点危言耸听，但3月份可能只是这个前期股东变现大窗口期的开始。</p></body></html>","text":"2021年的前两个月，很多投资者都实现了媲美全年的收益率，于是关注风险、降低回撤就成了今年聪明投资者最关注的议题。 接下来的行情会怎么走，现在没有人知道。但是从消息层面上，有一些明牌还是值得看一看的，比如，即将到来的大窗口期解禁潮。 2020年是个IPO大年，而9月也是IPO数量较多的月份。同时，2020年对不少公司带来的现金流打击不小，因此一些公司选择了增发来加强现金流。 我们统计了一下，这176家公司中有61家，自IPO或增发以来的收益率都超过50%，其中高的有超过300%、500%的。换句话说，前期参与的股东收益颇丰。 重要公司（括号里为IPO或增发以来表现） 第一周： $龙湖地产(00960)$ （-10.43%） $药明生物(02269)$ （80.49%） $小米集团-W(01810)$ (27%) $达达集团(DADA)$ (-17.26%) $移卡(09923)$ (160.3%) $燃石医学(BNR)$ (22.64%) $理想汽车(LI)$ (2.9%) 第二周： $农夫山泉(09633)$ (192.79%） $阿里健康(00241)$ (5.15%) $康希诺生物-B(06185)$ (116.24%) $Datadog(DDOG)$ (289.07%) $蔚来(NIO)$ (41.13%) 第三周： $JFrog Ltd(FROG)$ （51.91%） $Lemonade, Inc.(LMND)$ (-9.95%) $Snowflake(SNOW)$ (141.61%) $爱奇艺(IQ)$ (41.26%) 第四周： $腾讯控股(00700)$ (81%) $诺诚健华-B(09969)$ (142.46%) $明源云(00909)$ (231.52%) $永利度假村(WYNN)$ (7.53%) $普拉格能源(PLUG)$ (-14.02%) 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