秀秀168
2021-02-21
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@Iverson：
【财报前瞻】B站Q4财报能否撑起500亿美元市值？
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2021-02-21
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target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 将于2月24日盘后公布四季度及全年业绩，看似平淡的Q3财报，之后B站股价却一路飙涨，从49美元涨至最高157美元，涨幅超2倍，回过头看，这里面的原因主要是：1）全球流动性泛滥，弱美元强人民币，B站等优质中概股对资本有足够的吸引力2）业绩持续向好，有基本面支撑3）回港上市预期。</p> <p>Q4财报将决定B站能否撑起500亿美元市值，以及通胀预期抬升背景下的后市走向，只是符合预期显然是不够的。对于深陷舆论漩涡的B站来讲，亏损能否收窄？月活破2亿后捕获用户的节奏如何？后疫情时代的B站将给出怎样的答案？</p> <p><b>我们先来回顾一下三季度业绩回顾：</b></p> <ul> \n <li>三季度营收再创新高，达32.3亿元人民币，同比增长74%；</li> \n <li>月均活跃用户同比增长54%达1.97亿，移动端月均活跃用户同比增长61%达1.84亿；</li> \n <li>月均付费用户数同比增长89％达1500万，付费率从去年同期的6.2％提升至7.6％；</li> \n <li>当季亏损9.9亿元，同比扩大188%。</li> \n</ul> <p>整体来看，三季度业绩符合市场预期，围绕“PUGV”的获客方式进一步拉开与竞品的差距，通过持续破圈的优质内容与积极的运营策略，推动用户高质量增长，Q3已经<b>提前完成了2020年1.8亿用户的目标。</b>唯一槽点是亏损还在扩大，盈利遥遥无期。</p> <p><b>四季度有哪些看点？</b></p> <p>1.彭博预计B站四季度营收36.69亿美元，同比增长82.7%，调整后EPS-2.073，同比下降105.2%。预计Q4MAU1.94亿，环比略有下降。四季度游戏收入同比增长40%，九月与米哈游联合发行的二次元手游《原神》再成爆款，虽然对B站收入贡献有限（预计仅5%），但联运游戏优势在于提升用户参与度和毛利率。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746e3d9eb1ca7eaef77c0edd825a16be\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"209\"><span>i</span></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7c04951bf499449b6b315ee954289fc\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"393\"></p> <p>2.直播和增值服务业务预计同比增长124%，主要受大会员和S10的推动，S10对提升付费用户转换率较为明显。此外，《风犬少年的天空》、《天官赐福》等原创作品极大带动了大会员的增长，其中根据小说改编的国产动画片《天官赐福》在B站播出后，迅速成为B站爆款。它是B站国创区最快破亿的动画片，B站国创区2020年度年冠的宝座已经十拿九稳。预计 4季度大会员达到 1550万，环比净增270万。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fff49ff36b67f3c7197f3b8778272ff5\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"466\"></p> <p>3.其他业务方面，预计广告和电商收入同比增长均超过100%。与央视频联合举办的跨年晚会《2020最美的夜》推动B站持续出圈，B站平台播放量逼近1亿次，晚会直播人气峰值突破2.5亿，极高的传播度和播放量形成了独特的品牌效应。</p> <p>4.关于回港上市。B站已向港交所提交上市申请，计划3月回港二次上市。目前其筹资规模还未公布，金额大概会在25亿美元到30亿美元之间，此时募资需要对于亏损扩大、版图同样在扩张的B站来说还是非常重要的。不久前快手已经先于B站在香港IPO，估值和集资规模能够为衡量B站的价值提供一个参照基准。</p> <p>总之，B站Q4财报超预期是大概率事件，个人认为当前股价已经基本反应出财报超预期和回港上市预期等多重利好，在大盘方向不明的情况下，短期内股价继续上涨还是有一定压力的，下一波大行情的出现可能是盈利拐点的到来。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 将于2月24日盘后公布四季度及全年业绩，看似平淡的Q3财报，之后B站股价却一路飙涨，从49美元涨至最高157美元，涨幅超2倍，回过头看，这里面的原因主要是：1）全球流动性泛滥，弱美元强人民币，B站等优质中概股对资本有足够的吸引力2）业绩持续向好，有基本面支撑3）回港上市预期。</p> <p>Q4财报将决定B站能否撑起500亿美元市值，以及通胀预期抬升背景下的后市走向，只是符合预期显然是不够的。对于深陷舆论漩涡的B站来讲，亏损能否收窄？月活破2亿后捕获用户的节奏如何？后疫情时代的B站将给出怎样的答案？</p> <p><b>我们先来回顾一下三季度业绩回顾：</b></p> <ul> \n <li>三季度营收再创新高，达32.3亿元人民币，同比增长74%；</li> \n <li>月均活跃用户同比增长54%达1.97亿，移动端月均活跃用户同比增长61%达1.84亿；</li> \n <li>月均付费用户数同比增长89％达1500万，付费率从去年同期的6.2％提升至7.6％；</li> \n <li>当季亏损9.9亿元，同比扩大188%。</li> \n</ul> <p>整体来看，三季度业绩符合市场预期，围绕“PUGV”的获客方式进一步拉开与竞品的差距，通过持续破圈的优质内容与积极的运营策略，推动用户高质量增长，Q3已经<b>提前完成了2020年1.8亿用户的目标。</b>唯一槽点是亏损还在扩大，盈利遥遥无期。</p> <p><b>四季度有哪些看点？</b></p> <p>1.彭博预计B站四季度营收36.69亿美元，同比增长82.7%，调整后EPS-2.073，同比下降105.2%。预计Q4MAU1.94亿，环比略有下降。四季度游戏收入同比增长40%，九月与米哈游联合发行的二次元手游《原神》再成爆款，虽然对B站收入贡献有限（预计仅5%），但联运游戏优势在于提升用户参与度和毛利率。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/746e3d9eb1ca7eaef77c0edd825a16be\" tg-width=\"1119\" tg-height=\"209\"><span>i</span></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7c04951bf499449b6b315ee954289fc\" tg-width=\"776\" tg-height=\"393\"></p> <p>2.直播和增值服务业务预计同比增长124%，主要受大会员和S10的推动，S10对提升付费用户转换率较为明显。此外，《风犬少年的天空》、《天官赐福》等原创作品极大带动了大会员的增长，其中根据小说改编的国产动画片《天官赐福》在B站播出后，迅速成为B站爆款。它是B站国创区最快破亿的动画片，B站国创区2020年度年冠的宝座已经十拿九稳。预计 4季度大会员达到 1550万，环比净增270万。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fff49ff36b67f3c7197f3b8778272ff5\" tg-width=\"668\" tg-height=\"466\"></p> <p>3.其他业务方面，预计广告和电商收入同比增长均超过100%。与央视频联合举办的跨年晚会《2020最美的夜》推动B站持续出圈，B站平台播放量逼近1亿次，晚会直播人气峰值突破2.5亿，极高的传播度和播放量形成了独特的品牌效应。</p> <p>4.关于回港上市。B站已向港交所提交上市申请，计划3月回港二次上市。目前其筹资规模还未公布，金额大概会在25亿美元到30亿美元之间，此时募资需要对于亏损扩大、版图同样在扩张的B站来说还是非常重要的。不久前快手已经先于B站在香港IPO，估值和集资规模能够为衡量B站的价值提供一个参照基准。</p> <p>总之，B站Q4财报超预期是大概率事件，个人认为当前股价已经基本反应出财报超预期和回港上市预期等多重利好，在大盘方向不明的情况下，短期内股价继续上涨还是有一定压力的，下一波大行情的出现可能是盈利拐点的到来。</p></body></html>","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 将于2月24日盘后公布四季度及全年业绩，看似平淡的Q3财报，之后B站股价却一路飙涨，从49美元涨至最高157美元，涨幅超2倍，回过头看，这里面的原因主要是：1）全球流动性泛滥，弱美元强人民币，B站等优质中概股对资本有足够的吸引力2）业绩持续向好，有基本面支撑3）回港上市预期。 Q4财报将决定B站能否撑起500亿美元市值，以及通胀预期抬升背景下的后市走向，只是符合预期显然是不够的。对于深陷舆论漩涡的B站来讲，亏损能否收窄？月活破2亿后捕获用户的节奏如何？后疫情时代的B站将给出怎样的答案？ 我们先来回顾一下三季度业绩回顾： 三季度营收再创新高，达32.3亿元人民币，同比增长74%； 月均活跃用户同比增长54%达1.97亿，移动端月均活跃用户同比增长61%达1.84亿； 月均付费用户数同比增长89％达1500万，付费率从去年同期的6.2％提升至7.6％； 当季亏损9.9亿元，同比扩大188%。 整体来看，三季度业绩符合市场预期，围绕“PUGV”的获客方式进一步拉开与竞品的差距，通过持续破圈的优质内容与积极的运营策略，推动用户高质量增长，Q3已经提前完成了2020年1.8亿用户的目标。唯一槽点是亏损还在扩大，盈利遥遥无期。 四季度有哪些看点？ 1.彭博预计B站四季度营收36.69亿美元，同比增长82.7%，调整后EPS-2.073，同比下降105.2%。预计Q4MAU1.94亿，环比略有下降。四季度游戏收入同比增长40%，九月与米哈游联合发行的二次元手游《原神》再成爆款，虽然对B站收入贡献有限（预计仅5%），但联运游戏优势在于提升用户参与度和毛利率。 i 2.直播和增值服务业务预计同比增长124%，主要受大会员和S10的推动，S10对提升付费用户转换率较为明显。此外，《风犬少年的天空》、《天官赐福》等原创作品极大带动了大会员的增长，其中根据小说改编的国产动画片《天官赐福》在B站播出后，迅速成为B站爆款。它是B站国创区最快破亿的动画片，B站国创区2020年度年冠的宝座已经十拿九稳。预计 4季度大会员达到 1550万，环比净增270万。 3.其他业务方面，预计广告和电商收入同比增长均超过100%。与央视频联合举办的跨年晚会《2020最美的夜》推动B站持续出圈，B站平台播放量逼近1亿次，晚会直播人气峰值突破2.5亿，极高的传播度和播放量形成了独特的品牌效应。 4.关于回港上市。B站已向港交所提交上市申请，计划3月回港二次上市。目前其筹资规模还未公布，金额大概会在25亿美元到30亿美元之间，此时募资需要对于亏损扩大、版图同样在扩张的B站来说还是非常重要的。不久前快手已经先于B站在香港IPO，估值和集资规模能够为衡量B站的价值提供一个参照基准。 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