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上周sc130，开盘平仓，buy put110先拿着

@期权小班长：2亿哥roll仓 $NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$

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","html":"<html><head></head><body><p>省流：英伟达第四季度的波动大致中轴就是90～130，中位价格就是110。</p><p>英伟达Q2财报公布完，2亿哥再次roll仓：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>平仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 10万手</p></li><li><p>roll买入 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 12.6万手</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e9d6bae53cc250a8b75bf05cc8e360\" tg-width=\"2422\" tg-height=\"196\"></p><p>之前计算9月到期105call还剩5万手，我可能把别家机构开仓算进去了，毕竟著名大仓有别的机构跟仓也不奇怪。</p><p>我们先评价一下关仓的105call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> </p><p>根据k线图不难看出2亿哥应该小亏，但就期权买方日常亏损幅度而言是可接受状态。</p><p>我们知道2亿哥这家机构是给管理持股做对冲的，从5月29日高位接盘英伟达看涨期权以来，以第二第三季度这种波动幅度跟风险遭遇来看，居然没有全部亏光，能达成这种结果属于很厉害了。</p><p>我的评价就是这个季度再次证明2亿哥的行权价选择非常合理。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472ac481f5b5b207c7f92ed54230ff35\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"2091\"></p><p>那么再来看roll仓的110call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>，相比上次行权价提高$5，说明财报利好，市场继续看好英伟达股价并提高行权价。</p><p>但是roll仓手数减半，两个猜测，一是Q4降息市场潜在波动风险加大，二是管理层已经抛售了大量股票对冲需求下降。</p><p>总之根据之前历史经验，我们不难推导出，英伟达第四季度的波动大致中轴就是90～130，中位价格就是110，跟期权价格预期一致。</p><p>本周需要注意的是，一般2亿哥roll仓后股价会回调。</p><p>所以看见周五开仓一堆80的看跌期权我也不是很意外：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38274ea46943133bfe315444f3b35248\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"606\"></p><p>但此处有个问题，这些期权开仓花了多少钱？</p><p>我不是因为狼来太多次不恐慌了，实在是因为总体成交额太低，这些极度价外期权买下来总共可能都花不了几万，更像是恐慌盘诈骗。</p><p>本周五公布8月非农数据，我觉得预期不一定很悲观。但是周六新闻推送消息说高盛预计裁员1300人给我看笑了。</p><p>为了给就业数据制造压力自己大裁员，太狠了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ba285bccb98886b718b87400595f35\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"579\"></p><p>所以你说周五看跌开仓数据可信吗？信不了一点好吧，英伟达本周到100就差不多了，就业数据极度糟糕的情况下回90。接下来继续看就是了，我不信周一周二还开仓开的这么离谱。</p><p>本周到期sell put110开盘先平仓了，sell call130基本落袋。</p><p>其他股票，特斯拉sell call215，sell put180；spy回调位置先看550以下，看跌价差大单550-540；kweb接盘sell call 26；pdd看跌期权开仓倾向95，或长期锚定这一价格波动。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>省流：英伟达第四季度的波动大致中轴就是90～130，中位价格就是110。</p><p>英伟达Q2财报公布完，2亿哥再次roll仓：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>平仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 10万手</p></li><li><p>roll买入 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> 12.6万手</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07e9d6bae53cc250a8b75bf05cc8e360\" tg-width=\"2422\" tg-height=\"196\"></p><p>之前计算9月到期105call还剩5万手，我可能把别家机构开仓算进去了，毕竟著名大仓有别的机构跟仓也不奇怪。</p><p>我们先评价一下关仓的105call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a> </p><p>根据k线图不难看出2亿哥应该小亏，但就期权买方日常亏损幅度而言是可接受状态。</p><p>我们知道2亿哥这家机构是给管理持股做对冲的，从5月29日高位接盘英伟达看涨期权以来，以第二第三季度这种波动幅度跟风险遭遇来看，居然没有全部亏光，能达成这种结果属于很厉害了。</p><p>我的评价就是这个季度再次证明2亿哥的行权价选择非常合理。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472ac481f5b5b207c7f92ed54230ff35\" tg-width=\"1157\" tg-height=\"2091\"></p><p>那么再来看roll仓的110call <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL\">$NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>，相比上次行权价提高$5，说明财报利好，市场继续看好英伟达股价并提高行权价。</p><p>但是roll仓手数减半，两个猜测，一是Q4降息市场潜在波动风险加大，二是管理层已经抛售了大量股票对冲需求下降。</p><p>总之根据之前历史经验，我们不难推导出，英伟达第四季度的波动大致中轴就是90～130，中位价格就是110，跟期权价格预期一致。</p><p>本周需要注意的是，一般2亿哥roll仓后股价会回调。</p><p>所以看见周五开仓一堆80的看跌期权我也不是很意外：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38274ea46943133bfe315444f3b35248\" tg-width=\"522\" tg-height=\"606\"></p><p>但此处有个问题，这些期权开仓花了多少钱？</p><p>我不是因为狼来太多次不恐慌了，实在是因为总体成交额太低，这些极度价外期权买下来总共可能都花不了几万，更像是恐慌盘诈骗。</p><p>本周五公布8月非农数据，我觉得预期不一定很悲观。但是周六新闻推送消息说高盛预计裁员1300人给我看笑了。</p><p>为了给就业数据制造压力自己大裁员，太狠了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33ba285bccb98886b718b87400595f35\" tg-width=\"1012\" tg-height=\"579\"></p><p>所以你说周五看跌开仓数据可信吗？信不了一点好吧，英伟达本周到100就差不多了，就业数据极度糟糕的情况下回90。接下来继续看就是了，我不信周一周二还开仓开的这么离谱。</p><p>本周到期sell put110开盘先平仓了，sell call130基本落袋。</p><p>其他股票，特斯拉sell call215，sell put180；spy回调位置先看550以下，看跌价差大单550-540；kweb接盘sell call 26；pdd看跌期权开仓倾向95，或长期锚定这一价格波动。</p></body></html>","text":"省流：英伟达第四季度的波动大致中轴就是90～130，中位价格就是110。 英伟达Q2财报公布完，2亿哥再次roll仓： 平仓$NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$ 10万手 roll买入 $NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$ 12.6万手 之前计算9月到期105call还剩5万手，我可能把别家机构开仓算进去了，毕竟著名大仓有别的机构跟仓也不奇怪。 我们先评价一下关仓的105call $NVDA 20240920 105.0 CALL$ 根据k线图不难看出2亿哥应该小亏，但就期权买方日常亏损幅度而言是可接受状态。 我们知道2亿哥这家机构是给管理持股做对冲的，从5月29日高位接盘英伟达看涨期权以来，以第二第三季度这种波动幅度跟风险遭遇来看，居然没有全部亏光，能达成这种结果属于很厉害了。 我的评价就是这个季度再次证明2亿哥的行权价选择非常合理。 那么再来看roll仓的110call $NVDA 20241220 110.0 CALL$ ，相比上次行权价提高$5，说明财报利好，市场继续看好英伟达股价并提高行权价。 但是roll仓手数减半，两个猜测，一是Q4降息市场潜在波动风险加大，二是管理层已经抛售了大量股票对冲需求下降。 总之根据之前历史经验，我们不难推导出，英伟达第四季度的波动大致中轴就是90～130，中位价格就是110，跟期权价格预期一致。 本周需要注意的是，一般2亿哥roll仓后股价会回调。 所以看见周五开仓一堆80的看跌期权我也不是很意外： 但此处有个问题，这些期权开仓花了多少钱？ 我不是因为狼来太多次不恐慌了，实在是因为总体成交额太低，这些极度价外期权买下来总共可能都花不了几万，更像是恐慌盘诈骗。 本周五公布8月非农数据，我觉得预期不一定很悲观。但是周六新闻推送消息说高盛预计裁员1300人给我看笑了。 为了给就业数据制造压力自己大裁员，太狠了。 所以你说周五看跌开仓数据可信吗？信不了一点好吧，英伟达本周到100就差不多了，就业数据极度糟糕的情况下回90。接下来继续看就是了，我不信周一周二还开仓开的这么离谱。 本周到期sell put110开盘先平仓了，sell call130基本落袋。 其他股票，特斯拉sell call215，sell put180；spy回调位置先看550以下，看跌价差大单550-540；kweb接盘sell call 26；pdd看跌期权开仓倾向95，或长期锚定这一价格波动。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345494637355192","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1659,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":34,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/345418399977752"}