范嘉颖
2021-04-14
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@许亚鑫：
阿里承受“最轻处罚”后利空出尽，A50临近变盘窗口
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kakatoin
2021-05-07
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2021-05-06
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kakatoin
2021-04-29
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2021-04-26
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范嘉颖
2021-04-24
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<p>4月10号上午，市场监管总局依法对阿里巴巴做出了行政处罚决定，责令阿里巴巴集团要停止违法行为，并且处罚2019年在中国境内销售额4%作为罚款。</p> <p>2019年阿里巴巴在中国销售4557.12亿元，所以这182.28亿元的罚款是按照上述销售额计算算出来的。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6745e934f587ef891fae3672095fef3f\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"598\"><span>阿里反垄断处罚</span></p> <p>阿里巴巴集团第一时间表态，<b>对于这个处罚诚恳接受，坚决服从，并且将会强化依法经营，进一步加强合规体系的建设，立足创新发展更好的履行社会责任。</b></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c0ae68b5e46ad2e80183bdc7e73a02\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>阿里的表态</span></p> <p>去年12月份市场监管总局依据反垄断法，对阿里立案调查，这调查结果就认定了阿里在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。</p> <p>从2015年以来，阿里巴巴集团就滥用自己的市场支配地位。阿里对平台内的商家提出了二选一的要求，禁止这些商家在其他的竞争性平台开店，或者是参加促销活动。同时，<b>借助自己的市场力量的平台规则，数据算法等技术手段，采取了多种奖惩措施，保障他们二选一要求的执行，获取了不正当竞争优势。</b></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac1fe822e9f0667907be592be8e20b3\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>反垄断</span></p> <p>这种二选一的行为妨碍了商品服务和资源要素的自由流通，影响了平台经济的创新发展，同时还侵害了平台内商家的合法权益，损害了消费者利益，违反了反垄断法。除了罚款还向阿里集团发出了行政指导书，要求他们进行全面整改，并且连续三年向市场监管总局提交自查合规的报告。</p> <p><b>那么，这样的处罚对阿里来说到底罚的重不重？</b></p> <p>历史上曾发生过无数次垄断事件，在反垄断的处罚里面，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,138,0,1);\"><b>实际上最轻的就是罚款，而其他的处罚还包括企业拆分，技术开放和共享征税，以及终极大招收归国有化。</b></span></p> <p>上述措施跟罚款相比就要重得多，比如这些年微软因为反垄断的罚款都超过百亿美元，似乎看起来这就是个天文数字，但是相比他赚的利润而言这点钱微不足道，毕竟微软的垄断优势一直存在。<b>目前微软的市值1.9万亿美元，全球第二大上市公司。</b></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46cb803ddae26d912c730bc52d9747c9\" tg-width=\"442\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>微软</span></p> <p>那么我们也可以再看看烟草，这也属于暴利行业，<b>美国烟草公司当年垄断了95%的市场，最后直接被拆分成了16家公司，而洛克菲勒家族的标准石油也是因为反垄断被拆分成34个公司。</b></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8ca509ff67632bf2e6a823061d18bb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>标准石油被拆分</span></p> <p>因此，相比较于拆分来说，罚款只是让企业少了点利润而已，破坏不了他们的垄断优势。而一旦反垄断处罚是直接拆分，那么所谓得“优势”就可能荡然无存。与此同时，巨头们的技术还会被拿出来直接共享，这样的“处罚”才是真正伤筋动骨。</p> <p>从全球范围来说，目前正在给互联网巨头们量身定做一种数字税，没办法，这些互联网巨头在数字流量这一块儿已经无法撼动。</p> <p>当然，<b>最后的国有化是终级大招，一般情况下也不会轻易的使用，总之反垄断这事也许才刚刚开始。</b></p> <p>人民日报发表了这样一个评论，非常中肯：</p> <blockquote>\n 发达国家对苹果，亚马逊等经济巨头的反垄断调查并没有让这些企业失去核心竞争力，反而让他们能够积极做强核心业务，实现长远的健康发展。 \n</blockquote> <p>实际上，对于阿里这样的巨头来说，短期看似利空，中长期则是利好。因为只要护城河足够深，<b>反垄断的监管也在一定程度上帮助了互联网新锐诞生和成长，能够也给众多的小公司带来了良性竞争和茁壮成长的机会，最终让整个行业持续创新以及获利。</b></p> <p>因此，随着处罚大棒的落下，市场此前对于阿里更为悲观的预期已经不会兑现，让港股阿里今天走出“利空出尽”的收涨走势，后市的股价有望随着未来陆续的潜在利好出炉，缓慢爬出当下砸出的大坑。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41c6368ead156aab0fb7863ad671e346\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"541\"><span>阿里巴巴港股股价</span></p> <p>我们再来跟踪一下A50指数的走势，前文《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/343634240\" target=\"_blank\">今天，聊点华盛顿的八卦！</a>》提到：</p> <blockquote>\n 从A50指数后市的展望来看，短期继续在低位震荡构筑底部的概率较大，潜在双底在运行到颈部之后，面临一定的回调压力。未来进一步的走向还有待于基本面，例如4月中下旬郑智局会议，月底中美气候峰会等释放新的交投线索。 \n</blockquote> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0829407250bcb15187b883fc88c1bdaa\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"535\"><span>A50指数连续</span></p> <p>A50指数再次回落到前期的低位寻找支撑，下一个重要的变盘时间窗口位于4月21日，构筑底部的行情仍在延续。最后，依然祝福各位交易顺利！</p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\" target=\"_blank\">$A50指数主连(CNmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\" target=\"_blank\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>一直悬在阿里头上的反垄断大棒，终于落地了。</b></p> <p>4月10号上午，市场监管总局依法对阿里巴巴做出了行政处罚决定，责令阿里巴巴集团要停止违法行为，并且处罚2019年在中国境内销售额4%作为罚款。</p> <p>2019年阿里巴巴在中国销售4557.12亿元，所以这182.28亿元的罚款是按照上述销售额计算算出来的。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6745e934f587ef891fae3672095fef3f\" tg-width=\"521\" tg-height=\"598\"><span>阿里反垄断处罚</span></p> <p>阿里巴巴集团第一时间表态，<b>对于这个处罚诚恳接受，坚决服从，并且将会强化依法经营，进一步加强合规体系的建设，立足创新发展更好的履行社会责任。</b></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c0ae68b5e46ad2e80183bdc7e73a02\" tg-width=\"636\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>阿里的表态</span></p> <p>去年12月份市场监管总局依据反垄断法，对阿里立案调查，这调查结果就认定了阿里在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。</p> <p>从2015年以来，阿里巴巴集团就滥用自己的市场支配地位。阿里对平台内的商家提出了二选一的要求，禁止这些商家在其他的竞争性平台开店，或者是参加促销活动。同时，<b>借助自己的市场力量的平台规则，数据算法等技术手段，采取了多种奖惩措施，保障他们二选一要求的执行，获取了不正当竞争优势。</b></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ac1fe822e9f0667907be592be8e20b3\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"287\"><span>反垄断</span></p> <p>这种二选一的行为妨碍了商品服务和资源要素的自由流通，影响了平台经济的创新发展，同时还侵害了平台内商家的合法权益，损害了消费者利益，违反了反垄断法。除了罚款还向阿里集团发出了行政指导书，要求他们进行全面整改，并且连续三年向市场监管总局提交自查合规的报告。</p> <p><b>那么，这样的处罚对阿里来说到底罚的重不重？</b></p> <p>历史上曾发生过无数次垄断事件，在反垄断的处罚里面，<span style=\"color:rgba(255,138,0,1);\"><b>实际上最轻的就是罚款，而其他的处罚还包括企业拆分，技术开放和共享征税，以及终极大招收归国有化。</b></span></p> <p>上述措施跟罚款相比就要重得多，比如这些年微软因为反垄断的罚款都超过百亿美元，似乎看起来这就是个天文数字，但是相比他赚的利润而言这点钱微不足道，毕竟微软的垄断优势一直存在。<b>目前微软的市值1.9万亿美元，全球第二大上市公司。</b></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46cb803ddae26d912c730bc52d9747c9\" tg-width=\"442\" tg-height=\"318\"><span>微软</span></p> <p>那么我们也可以再看看烟草，这也属于暴利行业，<b>美国烟草公司当年垄断了95%的市场，最后直接被拆分成了16家公司，而洛克菲勒家族的标准石油也是因为反垄断被拆分成34个公司。</b></p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e8ca509ff67632bf2e6a823061d18bb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"412\"><span>标准石油被拆分</span></p> <p>因此，相比较于拆分来说，罚款只是让企业少了点利润而已，破坏不了他们的垄断优势。而一旦反垄断处罚是直接拆分，那么所谓得“优势”就可能荡然无存。与此同时，巨头们的技术还会被拿出来直接共享，这样的“处罚”才是真正伤筋动骨。</p> <p>从全球范围来说，目前正在给互联网巨头们量身定做一种数字税，没办法，这些互联网巨头在数字流量这一块儿已经无法撼动。</p> <p>当然，<b>最后的国有化是终级大招，一般情况下也不会轻易的使用，总之反垄断这事也许才刚刚开始。</b></p> <p>人民日报发表了这样一个评论，非常中肯：</p> <blockquote>\n 发达国家对苹果，亚马逊等经济巨头的反垄断调查并没有让这些企业失去核心竞争力，反而让他们能够积极做强核心业务，实现长远的健康发展。 \n</blockquote> <p>实际上，对于阿里这样的巨头来说，短期看似利空，中长期则是利好。因为只要护城河足够深，<b>反垄断的监管也在一定程度上帮助了互联网新锐诞生和成长，能够也给众多的小公司带来了良性竞争和茁壮成长的机会，最终让整个行业持续创新以及获利。</b></p> <p>因此，随着处罚大棒的落下，市场此前对于阿里更为悲观的预期已经不会兑现，让港股阿里今天走出“利空出尽”的收涨走势，后市的股价有望随着未来陆续的潜在利好出炉，缓慢爬出当下砸出的大坑。</p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41c6368ead156aab0fb7863ad671e346\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"541\"><span>阿里巴巴港股股价</span></p> <p>我们再来跟踪一下A50指数的走势，前文《<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/343634240\" target=\"_blank\">今天，聊点华盛顿的八卦！</a>》提到：</p> <blockquote>\n 从A50指数后市的展望来看，短期继续在低位震荡构筑底部的概率较大，潜在双底在运行到颈部之后，面临一定的回调压力。未来进一步的走向还有待于基本面，例如4月中下旬郑智局会议，月底中美气候峰会等释放新的交投线索。 \n</blockquote> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0829407250bcb15187b883fc88c1bdaa\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"535\"><span>A50指数连续</span></p> <p>A50指数再次回落到前期的低位寻找支撑，下一个重要的变盘时间窗口位于4月21日，构筑底部的行情仍在延续。最后，依然祝福各位交易顺利！</p> <p><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\" target=\"_blank\">$A50指数主连(CNmain)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\" target=\"_blank\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"一直悬在阿里头上的反垄断大棒，终于落地了。 4月10号上午，市场监管总局依法对阿里巴巴做出了行政处罚决定，责令阿里巴巴集团要停止违法行为，并且处罚2019年在中国境内销售额4%作为罚款。 2019年阿里巴巴在中国销售4557.12亿元，所以这182.28亿元的罚款是按照上述销售额计算算出来的。 阿里反垄断处罚 阿里巴巴集团第一时间表态，对于这个处罚诚恳接受，坚决服从，并且将会强化依法经营，进一步加强合规体系的建设，立足创新发展更好的履行社会责任。 阿里的表态 去年12月份市场监管总局依据反垄断法，对阿里立案调查，这调查结果就认定了阿里在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。 从2015年以来，阿里巴巴集团就滥用自己的市场支配地位。阿里对平台内的商家提出了二选一的要求，禁止这些商家在其他的竞争性平台开店，或者是参加促销活动。同时，借助自己的市场力量的平台规则，数据算法等技术手段，采取了多种奖惩措施，保障他们二选一要求的执行，获取了不正当竞争优势。 反垄断 这种二选一的行为妨碍了商品服务和资源要素的自由流通，影响了平台经济的创新发展，同时还侵害了平台内商家的合法权益，损害了消费者利益，违反了反垄断法。除了罚款还向阿里集团发出了行政指导书，要求他们进行全面整改，并且连续三年向市场监管总局提交自查合规的报告。 那么，这样的处罚对阿里来说到底罚的重不重？ 历史上曾发生过无数次垄断事件，在反垄断的处罚里面，实际上最轻的就是罚款，而其他的处罚还包括企业拆分，技术开放和共享征税，以及终极大招收归国有化。 上述措施跟罚款相比就要重得多，比如这些年微软因为反垄断的罚款都超过百亿美元，似乎看起来这就是个天文数字，但是相比他赚的利润而言这点钱微不足道，毕竟微软的垄断优势一直存在。目前微软的市值1.9万亿美元，全球第二大上市公司。 微软 那么我们也可以再看看烟草，这也属于暴利行业，美国烟草公司当年垄断了95%的市场，最后直接被拆分成了16家公司，而洛克菲勒家族的标准石油也是因为反垄断被拆分成34个公司。 标准石油被拆分 因此，相比较于拆分来说，罚款只是让企业少了点利润而已，破坏不了他们的垄断优势。而一旦反垄断处罚是直接拆分，那么所谓得“优势”就可能荡然无存。与此同时，巨头们的技术还会被拿出来直接共享，这样的“处罚”才是真正伤筋动骨。 从全球范围来说，目前正在给互联网巨头们量身定做一种数字税，没办法，这些互联网巨头在数字流量这一块儿已经无法撼动。 当然，最后的国有化是终级大招，一般情况下也不会轻易的使用，总之反垄断这事也许才刚刚开始。 人民日报发表了这样一个评论，非常中肯： 发达国家对苹果，亚马逊等经济巨头的反垄断调查并没有让这些企业失去核心竞争力，反而让他们能够积极做强核心业务，实现长远的健康发展。 实际上，对于阿里这样的巨头来说，短期看似利空，中长期则是利好。因为只要护城河足够深，反垄断的监管也在一定程度上帮助了互联网新锐诞生和成长，能够也给众多的小公司带来了良性竞争和茁壮成长的机会，最终让整个行业持续创新以及获利。 因此，随着处罚大棒的落下，市场此前对于阿里更为悲观的预期已经不会兑现，让港股阿里今天走出“利空出尽”的收涨走势，后市的股价有望随着未来陆续的潜在利好出炉，缓慢爬出当下砸出的大坑。 阿里巴巴港股股价 我们再来跟踪一下A50指数的走势，前文《今天，聊点华盛顿的八卦！》提到： 从A50指数后市的展望来看，短期继续在低位震荡构筑底部的概率较大，潜在双底在运行到颈部之后，面临一定的回调压力。未来进一步的走向还有待于基本面，例如4月中下旬郑智局会议，月底中美气候峰会等释放新的交投线索。 A50指数连续 A50指数再次回落到前期的低位寻找支撑，下一个重要的变盘时间窗口位于4月21日，构筑底部的行情仍在延续。最后，依然祝福各位交易顺利！ $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $微软(MSFT)$ $A50指数主连(CNmain)$ 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