Nat Gas Price Forecast—Monday

UCLA的Frank
2018-11-18

Natural Gas Markets Claw Back Some Gains For Friday

Natural gas markets rallied a bit during the day on Friday, after initially gapping lower. However, this is a market that continues to be overextended, and I think at this point we will probably struggle to reach the highs again.

Natural gas markets gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Friday, and we did of course rally rather significantly. However, this is a market that has gotten a bit ahead of itself, and I think what we are seeing now is a situation where the market is of course seasonably bullish, but also we have seen a massive burn of inventory. However, the longer-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish, because quite frankly we have more of it in the United States that we know what to do with. Because of this, I think there is a short-term opportunity to make money to the upside, but it is only a matter time before the sellers step back in and push this market back down as we have gotten so far ahead of ourselves.

At this point, I think that selling signs of exhaustion will probably be the best way to go forward, and I think ultimately we will probably break back below the four dollars level, perhaps even lower. However, look for exhaustive candles on this rally to fail and show signs of selling opportunities. It’s not necessarily that the market is going to be bearish, just simply we have gotten far too ahead of ourselves. I think the market got way ahead of itself, and I believe that the sellers will probably get aggressive now that there are several gaps below that need to be filled. Be cautious but sell exhaustion.

$三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(DGAZ)$

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$

$天然气ETF-United States(UNG)$

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精彩评论

  • AnchorYU
    2018-11-18
    AnchorYU
    楼主这篇文章的大概意思是天然气近期要看跌吧???
    • AnchorYU回复UCLA的Frank
      上周我算了个按每天10%,差不多一个多月吧好像,回到10几,就因为现在天然气脱离理性上涨这么多,我觉得后面应该会有一段持续阴跌。。
    • UCLA的Frank回复炒股没有好下场
      昨天已经给你详细计算过了!
    • UCLA的Frank回复AnchorYU
      一句话我给你最极端计算一下。现在DGAZ价格3.44,ng期货4.39。假设ng期货跌到2.7,那么跌38.5%,三倍反应到DGAZ就是1.15倍。这个下跌不会是一天,所以假设分段。比如取个匀速,就是每天下跌15%,那么最终价格就是3.44×1.15^7.66=10.04元。当然超算的预测也正好是10.56元。但是这就要看运气了。
    • 炒股没有好下场回复大嘟嘟
      你们都比我幸运
    • 大嘟嘟回复炒股没有好下场
      我8的本但是想有7我也就出了
  • 5fa81558
    2018-11-18
    5fa81558
    下周DGAZ反向分割,20倍
    • UCLA的Frank
      这一类合股拆股对于三倍etf是很正常的事情。没有什么值得大惊小怪的。既不能说明要涨也不能说明要跌。一切都要以追踪的标的为准
    • 执念
      下周一吗
    • AnchorYU
      请问这会意味着什么呢?天然气涨还是跌呢
  • 萧蝶sally
    2018-11-18
    萧蝶sally
    找支票按天做空多好,我太懒,这票上下横,空这个票得精准计算随机交易,对冲得一直看着太累,最近用脑太多,过两天再割,明天还想捏个spa呢。
    • 萧蝶sally回复UCLA的Frank
      感谢你的忠告,谢谢你。只是你没翻过我的帖子,不了解我罢了
    • UCLA的Frank回复萧蝶sally
      那你可谓是后生可畏呀!我们这在金融市场走过7-8年的人也不敢讲这个话。你呀很多金融市场的惊涛骇浪都没有见过。所以建议还是要保守一些发言为好。金融善始容易,可是善终嘛,就不一定了。我们见过一夜挣一个亿的最后也是要沦落为乞丐的。
    • UCLA的Frank回复萧蝶sally
      您可是相当有趣的!您做交易有几年了?
    • 萧蝶sally回复UCLA的Frank
      你可真有精力。不累吗,选支好票,吃吃喝喝玩玩乐乐舒舒服服,赚的还比花的多
    • UCLA的Frank回复萧蝶sally
      哈哈,我只拿一只票,都是swing trading
  • 执念
    2018-11-18
    执念
    谢谢,回到四块以下是减仓呢还是继续持有啊,会不会再来一波上涨
  • 烦人的老李
    2018-11-20
    烦人的老李
    支持楼主做个视频,当视频博主再挣一分钱
  • 三云师太
    2018-11-19
    三云师太
    他们都不会自己算。。。心累。
    • UCLA的Frank
      很多人实际上一点基础都没有就来做这种高风险的标的,我还是佩服的。
    • UCLA的Frank
      indeed😂😂😂
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