喵个猫
2021-03-08
美债收益率
@Mark特别帅：
为什么全球股市涨跌都得看它的眼色？
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/378e62f929b3952ab6a1596759aa688d\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"670\"><span></span></p><p>今天轱辘慧就来给大家讲讲</p><p>这个神奇的指标——美国十年期国债收益率</p><p>下次遇到它出现异动</p><p>你也能跟别人吹一吹你的股市预判了~</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3741394346db45411e8bb8d03f9a25b9\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"701\"><span></span></p><p>众所周知，买国债=国家给你张借条</p><p>美国国债也一样</p><p>而收益率=收益总额/投资本金</p><p>比如国家借你100块，一年后还你105块</p><p>那么收益率=（105-100）/100=5%</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9f24b527af9b66909be8016ac2561e\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"705\"><span></span></p><p>由于国债除了到期还本付息外</p><p>还有专门的市场买卖“借条”</p><p>所以</p><p>国债入市后的价格是实时波动的</p><p>也就是说，后入场的“韭菜”们</p><p>投资本金不一样</p><p>但到期国家偿还的利息是固定的</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3c5e8ca3a0548055441072b1c194ed\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"559\"><span></span></p><p>这就导致，国债收益率一直在变化</p><p>而且，它和价格成反比</p><p>国债价格上涨，投资本金增多，收益率下降</p><p>国债价格下跌，投资本金减少，收益率上涨</p><p>那美债收益率涨涨跌跌又关全球市场啥事儿呢？</p><p>而且，美国十年期国债收益率</p><p>竟还被很多宏观模型当做是全球资产定价的锚？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b91ed38498b67d3905983ce525e38da\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"525\"><span></span></p><p>这个问题</p><p>咱一点一点来看它是怎么传导的</p><p>美债收益率上涨</p><p>意味着美债价格下降</p><p>投资者可以用更少的钱来赚和原来一样多的利息</p><p>等于美国发债的成本提升了</p><p>“借钱”利息变相升高了呀！</p><p>这个时候，美国其他的贷款业务一看</p><p>国家向人借钱利息都升高了</p><p>你们贷款利息还能不升？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11104413a9b37dca76d457c1854e92e2\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"675\"><span></span></p><p>于是，美国各类贷款利率也会跟着涨</p><p>就这样，整个社会的融资成本被提高了</p><p>展现出来的弊端就是企业负担更重了</p><p>而如果任由它一直涨</p><p>那破产企业、失业人员也会随之增加</p><p>所以，一般美债收益率涨到一定程度后</p><p>美国的货币政策就会做出相应的调整</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b73ca91ff82ba546d72b7247d62f687\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"642\"><span></span></p><p>而货币政策一收紧</p><p>市场上的钱就会减少</p><p>传导到股市，我们熟悉的套路就来了</p><p>钱少得跌啊，于是美股跌</p><p>而美国经济的霸主地位</p><p>使得很多国家以它为衡量标准、以美元结算</p><p>那传导到其他国家也就很正常了</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138cbe6906ba55367f9a8ae5381dab6c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\"><span></span></p><p>事实上</p><p>从2020年三季度开始</p><p>美债收益率就缓慢攀升了</p><p>今年2月攀升速度加快</p><p>到上周达到一个顶峰</p><p>直接飙到了一年高位1.61%</p><p>之前都是远低于1%</p><p>涨得这么快市场就开始担心了</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36e95ec7ee9c21635790071b7c0ca10\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"667\"><span></span></p><p>于是，上周暴跌</p><p>尽管当时美联储再三强调</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649d411a15875367adb26267f9c8bb2b\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"590\"><span></span></p><p>可投资者们依旧坚持自己的判断</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad34c7156aa0592470df68110140ff3c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"591\"><span></span></p><p>这当中，也不乏一些趁机做空美债的群体</p><p>加上，去年因为疫情</p><p>美联储放了很多水，也发了很多债</p><p>本身美债也有点供过于求了</p><p>于是，美债价格暴跌</p><p>美债收益率蹭蹭蹭往上飙</p><p>然后，我们度过了“非常黑暗”的一周</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c071640f80792edc647225c1c7c705a3\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"679\"><span></span></p><p>而本周开始，情况又不一样了</p><p>美国众议院直接通过了一项1.9万亿美元的救助计划</p><p>等于又给市场放水了</p><p>美联储用行动证明了自己不想加息的决心</p><p>于是，10年期美债收益率当天尾盘就下滑到了1.417%</p><p>我们也迎来了3月的开门红</p><p>当然，长期来看</p><p>目前美国放了这么多水</p><p>随着疫情好转，货币政策大概率会有变动</p><p>美债收益率肯定还得有个震荡期</p><p>所以，投资的盆友们</p><p>谨慎一点呀</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>这两周<br></p><p>全球股市都在看一个东西的脸色</p><p>它涨了，大家一起跌</p><p>它跌了，大家一起涨</p><p>总之，灵得很！</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/378e62f929b3952ab6a1596759aa688d\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"670\"><span></span></p><p>今天轱辘慧就来给大家讲讲</p><p>这个神奇的指标——美国十年期国债收益率</p><p>下次遇到它出现异动</p><p>你也能跟别人吹一吹你的股市预判了~</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3741394346db45411e8bb8d03f9a25b9\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"701\"><span></span></p><p>众所周知，买国债=国家给你张借条</p><p>美国国债也一样</p><p>而收益率=收益总额/投资本金</p><p>比如国家借你100块，一年后还你105块</p><p>那么收益率=（105-100）/100=5%</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a9f24b527af9b66909be8016ac2561e\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"705\"><span></span></p><p>由于国债除了到期还本付息外</p><p>还有专门的市场买卖“借条”</p><p>所以</p><p>国债入市后的价格是实时波动的</p><p>也就是说，后入场的“韭菜”们</p><p>投资本金不一样</p><p>但到期国家偿还的利息是固定的</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce3c5e8ca3a0548055441072b1c194ed\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"559\"><span></span></p><p>这就导致，国债收益率一直在变化</p><p>而且，它和价格成反比</p><p>国债价格上涨，投资本金增多，收益率下降</p><p>国债价格下跌，投资本金减少，收益率上涨</p><p>那美债收益率涨涨跌跌又关全球市场啥事儿呢？</p><p>而且，美国十年期国债收益率</p><p>竟还被很多宏观模型当做是全球资产定价的锚？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b91ed38498b67d3905983ce525e38da\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"525\"><span></span></p><p>这个问题</p><p>咱一点一点来看它是怎么传导的</p><p>美债收益率上涨</p><p>意味着美债价格下降</p><p>投资者可以用更少的钱来赚和原来一样多的利息</p><p>等于美国发债的成本提升了</p><p>“借钱”利息变相升高了呀！</p><p>这个时候，美国其他的贷款业务一看</p><p>国家向人借钱利息都升高了</p><p>你们贷款利息还能不升？</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11104413a9b37dca76d457c1854e92e2\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"675\"><span></span></p><p>于是，美国各类贷款利率也会跟着涨</p><p>就这样，整个社会的融资成本被提高了</p><p>展现出来的弊端就是企业负担更重了</p><p>而如果任由它一直涨</p><p>那破产企业、失业人员也会随之增加</p><p>所以，一般美债收益率涨到一定程度后</p><p>美国的货币政策就会做出相应的调整</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b73ca91ff82ba546d72b7247d62f687\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"642\"><span></span></p><p>而货币政策一收紧</p><p>市场上的钱就会减少</p><p>传导到股市，我们熟悉的套路就来了</p><p>钱少得跌啊，于是美股跌</p><p>而美国经济的霸主地位</p><p>使得很多国家以它为衡量标准、以美元结算</p><p>那传导到其他国家也就很正常了</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/138cbe6906ba55367f9a8ae5381dab6c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"600\"><span></span></p><p>事实上</p><p>从2020年三季度开始</p><p>美债收益率就缓慢攀升了</p><p>今年2月攀升速度加快</p><p>到上周达到一个顶峰</p><p>直接飙到了一年高位1.61%</p><p>之前都是远低于1%</p><p>涨得这么快市场就开始担心了</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f36e95ec7ee9c21635790071b7c0ca10\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"667\"><span></span></p><p>于是，上周暴跌</p><p>尽管当时美联储再三强调</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/649d411a15875367adb26267f9c8bb2b\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"590\"><span></span></p><p>可投资者们依旧坚持自己的判断</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad34c7156aa0592470df68110140ff3c\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"591\"><span></span></p><p>这当中，也不乏一些趁机做空美债的群体</p><p>加上，去年因为疫情</p><p>美联储放了很多水，也发了很多债</p><p>本身美债也有点供过于求了</p><p>于是，美债价格暴跌</p><p>美债收益率蹭蹭蹭往上飙</p><p>然后，我们度过了“非常黑暗”的一周</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c071640f80792edc647225c1c7c705a3\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"679\"><span></span></p><p>而本周开始，情况又不一样了</p><p>美国众议院直接通过了一项1.9万亿美元的救助计划</p><p>等于又给市场放水了</p><p>美联储用行动证明了自己不想加息的决心</p><p>于是，10年期美债收益率当天尾盘就下滑到了1.417%</p><p>我们也迎来了3月的开门红</p><p>当然，长期来看</p><p>目前美国放了这么多水</p><p>随着疫情好转，货币政策大概率会有变动</p><p>美债收益率肯定还得有个震荡期</p><p>所以，投资的盆友们</p><p>谨慎一点呀</p></body></html>","text":"这两周 全球股市都在看一个东西的脸色 它涨了，大家一起跌 它跌了，大家一起涨 总之，灵得很！ 今天轱辘慧就来给大家讲讲 这个神奇的指标——美国十年期国债收益率 下次遇到它出现异动 你也能跟别人吹一吹你的股市预判了~ 众所周知，买国债=国家给你张借条 美国国债也一样 而收益率=收益总额/投资本金 比如国家借你100块，一年后还你105块 那么收益率=（105-100）/100=5% 由于国债除了到期还本付息外 还有专门的市场买卖“借条” 所以 国债入市后的价格是实时波动的 也就是说，后入场的“韭菜”们 投资本金不一样 但到期国家偿还的利息是固定的 这就导致，国债收益率一直在变化 而且，它和价格成反比 国债价格上涨，投资本金增多，收益率下降 国债价格下跌，投资本金减少，收益率上涨 那美债收益率涨涨跌跌又关全球市场啥事儿呢？ 而且，美国十年期国债收益率 竟还被很多宏观模型当做是全球资产定价的锚？ 这个问题 咱一点一点来看它是怎么传导的 美债收益率上涨 意味着美债价格下降 投资者可以用更少的钱来赚和原来一样多的利息 等于美国发债的成本提升了 “借钱”利息变相升高了呀！ 这个时候，美国其他的贷款业务一看 国家向人借钱利息都升高了 你们贷款利息还能不升？ 于是，美国各类贷款利率也会跟着涨 就这样，整个社会的融资成本被提高了 展现出来的弊端就是企业负担更重了 而如果任由它一直涨 那破产企业、失业人员也会随之增加 所以，一般美债收益率涨到一定程度后 美国的货币政策就会做出相应的调整 而货币政策一收紧 市场上的钱就会减少 传导到股市，我们熟悉的套路就来了 钱少得跌啊，于是美股跌 而美国经济的霸主地位 使得很多国家以它为衡量标准、以美元结算 那传导到其他国家也就很正常了 事实上 从2020年三季度开始 美债收益率就缓慢攀升了 今年2月攀升速度加快 到上周达到一个顶峰 直接飙到了一年高位1.61% 之前都是远低于1% 涨得这么快市场就开始担心了 于是，上周暴跌 尽管当时美联储再三强调 可投资者们依旧坚持自己的判断 这当中，也不乏一些趁机做空美债的群体 加上，去年因为疫情 美联储放了很多水，也发了很多债 本身美债也有点供过于求了 于是，美债价格暴跌 美债收益率蹭蹭蹭往上飙 然后，我们度过了“非常黑暗”的一周 而本周开始，情况又不一样了 美国众议院直接通过了一项1.9万亿美元的救助计划 等于又给市场放水了 美联储用行动证明了自己不想加息的决心 于是，10年期美债收益率当天尾盘就下滑到了1.417% 我们也迎来了3月的开门红 当然，长期来看 目前美国放了这么多水 随着疫情好转，货币政策大概率会有变动 美债收益率肯定还得有个震荡期 所以，投资的盆友们 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