$蔚来(NIO)$刚_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

2020-10-14

$蔚来(NIO)$刚才算了下，这个分析师给的估值是按照2025EV/sales 3倍算的目标价格40美金，目标价格40美金也就是总市值EV550亿美金，换算了一下，2025年他预计蔚来汽车销量是(550*7*10000）/(3*40)，一年大约卖32万量。根据8月豪华车销量看，假如BBA需求变化不大，2025年，蔚来汽车大约是雷克萨斯+路虎的销量。或者是BBA销量的15%。感觉也不是没有可能。或者说可能性不小？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

Dummer666
2020-10-15
Dummer666
nio不仅仅是一家汽车公司，他与传统汽车公司最大的不同就是，当你买了车以后，你和他只是开始。而传统汽车就结束了。所以不能简单的计算汽车销售额。你还有nio power， nio life， nio service，最终会成为一个nio platform。
- 就是我20200827回复小Q椰子酱:
  传统汽车行业售后内容匮乏，特斯拉在这点上和传统汽车无异，特斯拉与上海市政府签的对赌协议，与它自己的战略一致，才是导致它选择了降价换量的原因，特斯拉可不想等到传统汽车掉过头后，它的先发优势变小，那么，通过降价多卖车，再通过汽车保有量卖软件功能，是它的战略思路。不能说蔚来是误入歧途，只能说这两个新能源新势力车企的下棋路数不同而已
- 小Q椰子酱:
  你说的特斯拉一个都不做，照样全球第一。蔚来这是误入歧途，电动车颠覆燃油车，需要的就是低价走量，以燎原之势席卷全球市场，所以特斯拉估值才这么高，所以价格才一降再降。
- Beishouge:
  大概是这么个理
冰凉
2020-10-14
冰凉
你忽视了一个问题，仅在国内是能达到你说的这个目标的，可是路虎和雷克萨斯是全球销售的。
- 冰凉回复Beishouge:
  还有产能问题呢
- Beishouge回复冰凉:
  明年下半年估计国外市场有眉目，第一站估计德国，其实蔚来国外口碑比国内好不少，国外销量不会弱于国内
- 亚当肖华回复冰凉:
  期待啊，希望蔚来给一个surprise哈哈。
- 冰凉回复亚当肖华:
  是啊，我相信在国内，到2025蔚来能干过路虎加雷克萨斯，全球来算可就难说了
- 亚当肖华:
  这个表是中国大陆的销量数据。后续蔚来出海可能贡献更多销量。
新手_不会炒股
2020-10-15
新手_不会炒股
蔚来后续服务收费，周边配套，用户流量都是可以变现的，不能按照传统车企估值。
- 亚当肖华:
  是，以后自动驾驶包应该才是最牛的。电动感觉只是基础，决胜的是自动驾驶。
小郑郑
2020-10-15
小郑郑
这个估计还只是指的国内市场，如果到时候海外市场开辟了，未来可期啊
- CN658888:
  21年进入海外
小Q椰子酱
2020-10-15
小Q椰子酱
按照2025的销量，计算2021的股价？
社区成长助手
2020-10-14
社区成长助手
终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]希望您能在老虎社区玩得愉快、赚得开心！如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引

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