阿曼曼
2020-11-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
什么时候会到500
[暗中观察]
特斯拉加入标普会涨多少
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Seven8
2020-11-17
Seven8
500不是我的目标，这还没开始逼空
秋虫语冰
2021-01-03
秋虫语冰
过700啦
无式
2020-11-17
无式
马上 这一波应该能到600左右
什么也没有了～
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</span></p></body></html>","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$什么时候会到500[暗中观察]","highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307559447","repostId":1150558758,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150558758","pubTimestamp":1605601786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150558758?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-17 16:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉加入标普会涨多少","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150558758","media":"刺客夜行","summary":"今天$特斯拉$宣布加入标普。我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。盘后现在特斯拉收在462。如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。","content":"<p>今天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>宣布加入标普。12/21加入。</p>\n<p>我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。</p>\n<p>SP500 market cap 29 Trillion</p>\n<p>TELSA market cap 400 Billion</p>\n<p>400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX</p>\n<p>那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?</p>\n<p>4.6 trillion are indexed</p>\n<p>11.2 trillion are indexed + benchmarked</p>\n<p>index不管特斯拉价格多少，必须买</p>\n<p>benchmarked大多也会买，但是有一定自由度</p>\n<p>这两个我们可以看成上涨空间的上下边界</p>\n<p>4.6 trillion indexed，乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多16%</p>\n<p>11.2 trillion indexed + benchmark, 乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多39%</p>\n<p>所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。换算成dollar, 大概股价在473-566之间。</p>\n<p>盘后现在特斯拉收在462。差不多接近上涨区间的下边界。</p>\n<p>下面我们来考虑其他变量。</p>\n<p>1.</p>\n<p>对于index funds，根本不考虑价格是多少，over valued还是under valued，只要在index里面，就按权重直接买，造成的结果是，盘子越大的股票，要买的越多。</p>\n<p>如果下个月21号前，Tesla的涨幅比标普要大，换句话讲未来一个月特斯拉如果outperform SPX，越outperform，那么权重就会越大，买盘就越大，造成特斯拉的涨幅更大。正向循环。</p>\n<p>如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。</p>\n<p>2.</p>\n<p>12/18正好是今年最后四巫日。Option到期。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。</p>\n<p>3.</p>\n<p>另外还有index rebalance，其他的index也会考虑。</p>\n<p>4.</p>\n<p>别忘了还有好些short的人。所以事实上available for purchase的oustanding shares会更少些。</p>\n<p>综上，最差情况涨到473，目前已经差不多到了。我想明天开盘一定在这个数之上。最好情况理论值566，加入其他变量。我觉得会在600-700之间。</p>","source":"lsy1605601741946","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉加入标普会涨多少</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n特斯拉加入标普会涨多少\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-17 16:29 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg><strong>刺客夜行</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。\n我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。\nSP500 market cap 29 Trillion\nTELSA market cap 400 Billion\n400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX\n那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?\n4.6 trillion are ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f76b3cc53dd60ecb6eab407da188d689","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q_NYIugSMAebDgi027vEDg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150558758","content_text":"今天特斯拉宣布加入标普。12/21加入。\n我们来做个小学生数学题，算算特斯拉会涨多少。\nSP500 market cap 29 Trillion\nTELSA market cap 400 Billion\n400/ 29000= 1.38% 特斯拉会占1.38% of SPX\n那么有多少fund是indexed or benchmarked to SPX?\n4.6 trillion are indexed\n11.2 trillion are indexed + benchmarked\nindex不管特斯拉价格多少，必须买\nbenchmarked大多也会买，但是有一定自由度\n这两个我们可以看成上涨空间的上下边界\n4.6 trillion indexed，乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多16%\n11.2 trillion indexed + benchmark, 乘以1.38%，除以400 billion, 差不多39%\n所以如果其他一切是定量，加入标普仅index and benchmark funds的买入会让特斯拉涨16-39%。换算成dollar, 大概股价在473-566之间。\n盘后现在特斯拉收在462。差不多接近上涨区间的下边界。\n下面我们来考虑其他变量。\n1.\n对于index funds，根本不考虑价格是多少，over valued还是under valued，只要在index里面，就按权重直接买，造成的结果是，盘子越大的股票，要买的越多。\n如果下个月21号前，Tesla的涨幅比标普要大，换句话讲未来一个月特斯拉如果outperform SPX，越outperform，那么权重就会越大，买盘就越大，造成特斯拉的涨幅更大。正向循环。\n如果未来一个月SPX跌，特斯拉涨，那么涨幅可能远不止39%。\n2.\n12/18正好是今年最后四巫日。Option到期。特斯拉股价可能会因为option trading被pin在某些数值，涨幅可能不连续，到时候跳跃式上涨。\n3.\n另外还有index rebalance，其他的index也会考虑。\n4.\n别忘了还有好些short的人。所以事实上available for purchase的oustanding shares会更少些。\n综上，最差情况涨到473，目前已经差不多到了。我想明天开盘一定在这个数之上。最好情况理论值566，加入其他变量。我觉得会在600-700之间。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3047,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TSLA"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":39,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":3052787,"commentId":"3052787","gmtCreate":1605605294784,"gmtModify":1605605294784,"authorId":20703384576125,"author":{"id":20703384576125,"idStr":"20703384576125","authorId":20703384576125,"name":"Seven8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63c5325d49ab0fd75150e915a280d214","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d9c5f09a3dff04a25cdd383107a8318","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":307559447,"objectIdStr":"307559447","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"500不是我的目标，这还没开始逼空","text":"500不是我的目标，这还没开始逼空","html":"500不是我的目标，这还没开始逼空","likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":3268139,"commentId":"3268139","gmtCreate":1609680907516,"gmtModify":1609680907516,"authorId":3463112040984428,"author":{"id":3463112040984428,"idStr":"3463112040984428","authorId":3463112040984428,"name":"秋虫语冰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97260ad2eb80155b4228f8f6ea0f6877","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.23%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":307559447,"objectIdStr":"307559447","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"过700啦","text":"过700啦","html":"过700啦","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":3052778,"commentId":"3052778","gmtCreate":1605605227395,"gmtModify":1605605227395,"authorId":3548924052551622,"author":{"id":3548924052551622,"idStr":"3548924052551622","authorId":3548924052551622,"name":"无式","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":307559447,"objectIdStr":"307559447","type":1,"supId":0,"supIdStr":"0","prevId":0,"prevIdStr":"0","content":"<p>马上 这一波应该能到600左右</p><p><br></p>","text":"<p>马上 这一波应该能到600左右</p><p><br></p>","html":"<p>马上 这一波应该能到600左右</p><p><br></p>","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/307559447"}
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马上 这一波应该能到600左右