鹏翔
2020-11-01
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@小斯新报道:
蚂蚁集团中签概率猜测表
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688688\">$蚂蚁集团(688688)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>本表纯属偶然瞎猜,如有雷同,纯属巧合。</p> <p>由于某些原因,预计申请1手的人会比较多,最终甲组人数有望突破100万。在此情况下,一手中签率可能达不到100%这么高,但是80%还是有戏的(参考农夫山泉和保利物业)</p> <p>由于大甲组的优势可能会被一手党摊平,甲尾预计11-12手(更多那就再好不过啦),因此拉平了斜率,稳中一手的概率估计5-6手。</p> <p>对乙组来说,若超过8万人,则竞争会相当激烈,乙头人数有望占比40%以上,则大概14-15手左右,再往下的变数太大,随便看看就好。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb633ac26c9268c1fa114d76df57f22\" tg-width=\"1305\" tg-height=\"1816\"></p> <p>对普通散户融资党来说,不算认购手续费的情况下,打和点在7%以下,但是乙组网上,如果你用的是融资,可能打和点很高。这也是为什么我认为乙组大部分都会集中在头部,因为高金额融资不划算。</p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">$蚂蚁集团(06688)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688688\">$蚂蚁集团(688688)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"本表纯属偶然瞎猜,如有雷同,纯属巧合。 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