【降息迷局】9月？11月？不降息？

美国上周初请失业金人数略高预期，4月新屋开工与营建许可的数据也稍逊市场预期，此前有报告称，零售销售大幅下滑……经济数据整体显示出降温态势，也表明降息在望。但同时美联储官员却在不同场合表示，利率应该在更长时间内保持在高位……这引发市场猜测到底何时降息？而高利率对美国到底利大于弊还是弊大于利？美联储一直不“松口”真的是因为高通胀吗？

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鲍威尔重挫降息预期，大盘调整仍将继续？

鲍威尔北京时间周五凌晨讲话称，如果经济数据允许，缓慢降息是明智之举。在鲍威尔发表讲话后，美国股市收盘接近盘中低点，美元则与美债收益率一同大涨，ICE美元指数创下了一年来的最高位。交易员将美联储12月降息的概率预期从前一天的80%降至了50%左右。【鲍威尔重挫降息预期，大盘调整仍将继续？12月降息概率几成？】

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