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“巴菲特指标”亮红灯!美股真的涨过头了?
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“巴菲特指标”亮红灯!美股真的涨过头了?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-25 15:10 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1091345.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>巴菲特最青睐的市场指标已飙升至两年来最高点184%,这表明美股估值过高,可能出现毁灭性崩盘。巴菲特指标是“将所有交易活跃的美国股票的总市值除以最新季度国内生产总值(GDP)的估计值”。投资者通常使用该指标以比较股市整体价值和国民经济规模。根据威尔希尔指数公司(Wilshire Indexes)数据,FT威尔希尔5000指数今年已跃升9%,创下历史新高,将其市值提升至约51.47万亿美元。美国国内...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1091345.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1091345.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2422568490","content_text":"巴菲特最青睐的市场指标已飙升至两年来最高点184%,这表明美股估值过高,可能出现毁灭性崩盘。巴菲特指标是“将所有交易活跃的美国股票的总市值除以最新季度国内生产总值(GDP)的估计值”。投资者通常使用该指标以比较股市整体价值和国民经济规模。根据威尔希尔指数公司(Wilshire Indexes)数据,FT威尔希尔5000指数今年已跃升9%,创下历史新高,将其市值提升至约51.47万亿美元。美国国内生产总值(GDP)从疫情低点上涨了40%,上季度达27.94万亿美元。将前者除以后者,得出该指标读数为184%。巴菲特在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇文章中宣称,以他名字命名的衡量标准“可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值状况的最佳单一标”。巴菲特曾表示,股票估值达到100%时可能是公平的,达到70%或80%时则接近低价区,但也警告称,在接近200%时买入股票将是“玩火”。这位传奇投资人还说,当该指标在飙升至科网泡沫期间历史最高点时,曾是一个“非常强烈的警告信号”,表明崩盘即将来临。今年以来,美股屡创新高,促使部分评论家敲响了关于泡沫的警钟。英伟达和微软等人工智能相关股票的大幅上涨,以及华尔街对美联储将在今年降息、经济将摆脱衰退的预期不断升温,都助长了股市的狂飙。这一指标曾在2022年初证明了价值,彼时该指标亮起红灯,飙升至超200%。在随后12个月里,标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别暴跌了19%和33%。但值得注意的是,这一指标远非完美。该指标是将股市当前价值与上一季度的经济增长数据进行比较。此外,该指标所依赖的G DP不包括海外收入,而美股价格却包含了公司国内和国际业务的价值。然而,对于一些专家来说,这一指标再次回到以往市场灾难前的高水平,这显然是一个警示。胡斯曼投资信托公司(Hussman Investment Trust)总裁约翰·胡斯曼(John Hussman)和B.莱利财富管理公司(B.Riley Wealth Management)首席投资策略师保罗·迪特里希(Paul Dietrich)都指出,该指标的飙升是泡沫的证据,以及此次涨势或将以痛苦的破裂告终。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":549,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/288154956054736"}
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