“巴菲特指标”亮红灯！美股真的涨过头了？

智通财经网03-25

巴菲特最青睐的市场指标已飙升至两年来最高点184%，这表明美股估值过高，可能出现毁灭性崩盘。巴菲特指标是“将所有交易活跃的美国股票的总市值除以最新季度国内生产总值(GDP)的估计值”。投资者通常使用该指标以比较股市整体价值和国民经济规模。根据威尔希尔指数公司(Wilshire Indexes)数据，FT威尔希尔5000指数今年已跃升9%，创下历史新高，将其市值提升至约51.47万亿美元。美国国内...

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钢铁直男凡芒至尊
03-25
钢铁直男凡芒至尊
阅
里二外三
03-25
里二外三
这个不适用A

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Did US stocks really go too far?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9247218457f6cc99be7f4fd4fe875fb8","symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.1,".DJI":1,".IXIC":1},"content_text":"巴菲特最青睐的市场指标已飙升至两年来最高点184%，这表明美股估值过高，可能出现毁灭性崩盘。巴菲特指标是“将所有交易活跃的美国股票的总市值除以最新季度国内生产总值(GDP)的估计值”。投资者通常使用该指标以比较股市整体价值和国民经济规模。根据威尔希尔指数公司(Wilshire Indexes)数据，FT威尔希尔5000指数今年已跃升9%，创下历史新高，将其市值提升至约51.47万亿美元。美国国内生产总值(GDP)从疫情低点上涨了40%，上季度达27.94万亿美元。将前者除以后者，得出该指标读数为184%。巴菲特在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇文章中宣称，以他名字命名的衡量标准“可能是衡量任何特定时刻估值状况的最佳单一标”。巴菲特曾表示，股票估值达到100%时可能是公平的，达到70%或80%时则接近低价区，但也警告称，在接近200%时买入股票将是“玩火”。这位传奇投资人还说，当该指标在飙升至科网泡沫期间历史最高点时，曾是一个“非常强烈的警告信号”，表明崩盘即将来临。今年以来，美股屡创新高，促使部分评论家敲响了关于泡沫的警钟。英伟达和微软等人工智能相关股票的大幅上涨，以及华尔街对美联储将在今年降息、经济将摆脱衰退的预期不断升温，都助长了股市的狂飙。这一指标曾在2022年初证明了价值，彼时该指标亮起红灯，飙升至超200%。在随后12个月里，标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别暴跌了19%和33%。但值得注意的是，这一指标远非完美。该指标是将股市当前价值与上一季度的经济增长数据进行比较。此外，该指标所依赖的G DP不包括海外收入，而美股价格却包含了公司国内和国际业务的价值。然而，对于一些专家来说，这一指标再次回到以往市场灾难前的高水平，这显然是一个警示。胡斯曼投资信托公司(Hussman Investment Trust)总裁约翰·胡斯曼(John Hussman)和B.莱利财富管理公司(B.Riley Wealth Management)首席投资策略师保罗·迪特里希(Paul Dietrich)都指出，该指标的飙升是泡沫的证据，以及此次涨势或将以痛苦的破裂告终。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":288154956054736,"gmtCreate":1711376066892,"gmtModify":1711376068503,"author":{"id":"3559865587376715","authorId":"3559865587376715","name":"钢铁直男凡芒至尊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e79043833619101d0a8a8e7270ceb478","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3559865587376715","authorIdStr":"3559865587376715"},"htmlText":"阅","listText":"阅","text":"阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288154956054736","repostId":2422568490,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":288128514498784,"gmtCreate":1711369568403,"gmtModify":1711369570123,"author":{"id":"3544518779726666","authorId":"3544518779726666","name":"里二外三","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544518779726666","authorIdStr":"3544518779726666"},"htmlText":"这个不适用A","listText":"这个不适用A","text":"这个不适用A","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/288128514498784","repostId":2422568490,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":14,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2422568490"}