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美团的自我修正：减亏优选，轻装上阵｜未来焦点
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ACC"},"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240323A03PON00","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2421026800","content_text":"聚焦主业，更好地应对抖音的竞争。\n作者 | 董洁\n编辑 | 乔芊\n一家公司扭转业务颓势最有效的方法是什么？或许不是砸钱、堆人力，而是换人、调阵型。\n今年2月，当美团决定把张川从到店事业群总裁的位置调离，由王莆中接任，外界知道这家本地生活巨头决定要换一种方式来应对抖音本地生活的竞争了。\n王莆中的到任发生在一个关键的节点。在这之前，美团的股价已罕见的跌破发行价，逼近了60港元/股，但在这之后，美团股价迅速修复，1个月的时间反弹超25%。换人的效果立竿见影。\n\n\n\n美团过去一年股价走势\n是什么决定让美团将张川换下，众说纷纭。一位美团内部人士称，就在调整前的周末，张川还在带领到餐团队准备作战封闭会，“感觉非常突然”。更早前，张川还发布了真诚满满的内部信，鼓励到店的管理层走到一线去，感受炮火的声音。\n至少从四季度财报看，美团的业绩远没有股价表现的那么糟糕。刚过去的Q4，美团实现营收736.9亿元，同比增长22.6%；经营利润17.38亿元，同比扭亏为盈；经调整的净利润更是大增427.6%达到了43.7亿元，三项数据都超过了分析师预期。\n为了应对竞争，美团开始花费巨大力气招引商户，尤其在下沉市场。这为其带来了不错的成果，Q4美团核心本地商业的广告收入增速达到了41.4%，不仅将与佣金收入增速的剪刀差缩小，而且一举反超，后者本季度的增速为33.9%。\n\n\n\n美团核心本地商业佣金和广告收入增速变化 数据来源：美团财报\n虽然有去年同期低基数的影响，但知情人士透露，商户数量的增加是广告收入反弹的最关键因素。这似乎能够缓解外界对美团的焦虑。此前人们最大的担心在于，抖音的入局将抢走商家在美团的广告预算。但从过去两个季度看，这一趋势正在放缓，商家正在回拢美团。\n不过这一事情仍然存在变局。2024年，抖音本地生活的核心议题是“商业化”，为此特意成立了服务于全国大型连锁品牌的NKA部门，瞄准的正是大品牌的广告预算。\n业绩披露之外，美团在财报中还透露了这样一个细节——将对优选业务进行战略调整，大幅减少经营亏损。对于这一决定，管理层给出的解释是，“规模增长低于预期，导致履约成本优化缓慢，而且激烈的竞争使得提高商品加价率和降低补贴难度加大”。\n对于二级市场来说，这是相对利好的信号。此前因为亏损严重，美团优选已严重拖累美团的市值表现，此番收缩将有助于其聚焦核心主业，更好的应对抖音的竞争。\n优选退后，闪购接棒？\n作为承载美团想象力的业务，美团优选过去几年的表现的确算不上优秀。\n尽管一直试图优化成本，降低亏损，但优选对美团现金流的蚕食还是相当夸张。四季度优选的亏损为48亿元，2023全年则为202亿。相比之下，多多买菜已几乎接近盈亏平衡。\n在王兴曾经的设想中，美团优选能为美团带来3-4亿新增用户，并充分反哺到外卖和到店业务中，成为美团实物零售的重要承载。但现实相当残酷。\n在上季度的电话会上，王兴已隐约表达出类似的含义，“如果一个新业务无法成为有价值的资产，会对策略及时做出调整”，到了本季度，美团已下定决心对优选进行调整。\n收缩风声传出后，美团优选部分城市的中心仓已经开始合并，并减少了补贴力度。据王兴透露，一季度优选的营业亏损同比已收窄明显。因为要将亏损从200亿缩减到100亿内，外界普遍猜测，UE表现靠后的市场或将被美团优选陆续淘汰。\n但优选退后之后，美团新的想象力将由谁承担呢？可能的答案是闪购。\n刚过去的Q4，美团首次披露了闪购的日均单量，四季度这一数字达到了830万，创出历史新高，同比增速27.7%。尽管环比有所下降，但考虑去年疫情放开后的高基数，这一增速仍然超出外界预期。\n\n\n\n美团闪购各季度订单及增速变化 数据来源：海豚投研、走马财经\n从2022年Q2开始，美团把闪购从新业务的分项中拆出，并入核心本地商业模块。逻辑在于，闪购与外卖同属于即时配送，且有着相似的商业模式——都是靠广告费和佣金支撑收入增长。但相比外卖，它的客单价更高，相同单量下UE模型也更优。\n过去一年，闪购的订单从Q1的520万单，猛增至Q4的830万单。四季度，闪购日均单量已经达到外卖的14.5%，上一季度这一数字还是11.6%。因为客单价更高，其GTV已超外卖的20%，但仍处于小幅亏损状态。\n四季度闪购的亏损超过1亿，折合下来的单均亏损在0.2元左右，对比之下，外卖的单均利润则在0.9元，环比有所下降。主要原因是拼饭订单占比的提升，四季度这一数字逼近10%，因为客单价低（普遍在10-25元），尽管换来了不错的订单增速，但拉低了外卖业务GMV和利润的表现。\n一位美团内部人士曾透露，内部对于闪购的盈利潜力非常看好，虽然单量还不及外卖，但其广告货币化率已优于外卖（但整体货币化率还不如外卖）。2023年，美团闪购的年度活跃商家数同比增长了30%，专为闪购服务的“美团闪电仓”也突破了5000家，越来越多的商家开始意识到即时零售需求的增长。\n去年，闪购的GTV已经逼近1500亿，这几乎是京东到家的3倍。为了追赶美团，京东拉来了前美团副总裁郭庆亲自挂帅达达。据此前内部人士的透露，郭庆在内部要求全面对标美团闪购，在组织架构上也完全对齐。\n美团最大的对手抖音，今年也将小时达的优先级提高。一位知情人士告诉36氪，前不久，抖音小时达跟永辉超市达成了3亿元的合作框架，并把头部连锁商家作为今年主要BD的对象。\n王莆中将把到店带向哪里？\n进入新的一年，美团和抖音都不约而同的选择了调整组织架构，这背后是对未来作战方式的转变。\n过去一年的竞争，或多或少都对双方造成了伤害。进入四季度，抖音对美团的追赶还在继续，双方的GTV在Q4的差距进一步缩小，抖音本地生活核销前的GTV 也首次突破了1000亿。\n\n\n\n美团到店酒旅与抖音本地生活各季度GTV变化 数据来源：公开资料、财报\n美团应对的办法是加大补贴，四季度的营销费用高达167.3亿，同比大增55.3%，远超收入增速，这也影响了核心本地商业的经营利润率表现。Q4这一数字为14.5%，同比2022年四季度的16.6%下滑了2%，要知道那是疫情放开的首个季度，人群感染导致大部分线下门店都无法正常营业。\n为了更密切的追踪客户，去年Q4美团也取消了下沉城市的代理商模式，全面转向直营。这一调整带来的好处是，面对激烈的竞争可以更迅速的反应、提供更好的服务，但也会导致短期内成本的变高。四季度到店酒旅分项的经营利润率跌破30%，跟这有很大的关系，巅峰时美团这一数据能达到40%。\n尽管在GTV层面勉强顶住了抖音的穷追猛打（Q4到店酒旅GTV增速达160%），但这是建立在美团高强度投入的前提下。进入Q1，美团已经开始复盘投入的ROI，并强调资源投入的合理性。\n一个表现是，此前被高度重视的直播项目，目前优先级已有所调整。多个城市的用户都反映，此前美团app的直播一级入口如今已变为二级入口，只有点入“外卖”或者“团购”的页面才能看到，多位商家也反馈了同样的变化。\n“在经历前期大规模邀请明星驻场直播后，直播的留存并不好”，一位美团服务商告诉36氪，“内部希望更精细化的运营，将流量投向更精准的人群，全力优化UE。”\n这是王莆中统管到店和到家后带来的变化。相比营收和GTV的增长，他更关注核销后GTV和核销后GTV利润率的变化，这体现了一种务实。一位知情人士也表示，王莆中现在传递给内部的信号就是“资源整合，合理投入”，这种整合不仅在于人员和部门的整合，更是产品形态的整合，“他希望到家和到店能在流量和产品上做更好的协同”。\n本周美团成立的平台产品部，主要的职责就是做到家和到店产品的融合。“从货架展示、团购券、外卖，再到渠道分分销，就是要给商家做全套营销工具”。\n除产品和研发外，美团到店和到家一线BD的整合已经开始。据了解，针对头部客户，部分城市的外卖BD已经开始合并谈单。有BD透露，今年主要的目标就是提升到店商家的渗透率。\n截至2023年，美团收入名录的到店商户超过了3000万，但这其中只有600多万与美团有合作，比例不到20%。“内部目标是要做到平均30%的渗透率，医美、婚庆、亲子板块争取做到 50%以上”。\n美团的对手抖音，也谋求着改变。\n尽管去年在GTV的追赶上相当迅猛，但内部对这一过于追求规模的做法并不满意。它带来的后果是，核销率迟迟无法改善以及亏损率的提升。知情人士透露，去年四个季度抖音本地生活的毛利率持续下滑，“在一季度时还是正的，但到了四季度已接近-10%。”\n在经历了近2年的狂飙突进后，抖音决定不再把追求规模放在第一位，内部考虑将2024年5800亿的GTV目标调低，转而把商业化提升至首要位置，这从近期抖音本地生活的组织架构调整中也看得出来。\n进入一季度，双方的补贴已不再激进，进入了一种相对“和平共处”的状态。美团希望能在未来将双方的销售额长期保持在2:1的状态，内部的判断是“最艰苦的时候已经过去了”。抖音的想法则是，在完成攻城略地之后，他们要找回进入这一领域的初心——赚钱。\n.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-DEFAULT-ACTIVE-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .126)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-DIALOG-LINE-COLOR: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-COLOR-ACTIVE: #373737}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BG-6: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1)}.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-REDORANGE: #ff6146;--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, 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