么一
03-22
$拼多多(PDD)$
主要是中概,估值就会低,要是和TikTok药明康德一样,谁也说不好,只要等风波过去才会赢来巨大反弹
免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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花式
03-22
花式
在分析Temu的表现前,结合财务数据和专家调研,整理出的Temu业务的财务确认规则:
1)由于Temu目前主要是全托管模式,确认收入的口径应当是“前端售价 – 商品供货价”的部分,即销售的毛利润被全部确认为Temu的收入,其中也包括了少量消费者支付的物流费用。结合调研,研粗略估算,Temu确认收入占GMV的比重大约在40%~50%之间。
2)而Temu确认成本的口径则应当是以履约物流费用为主,同时可能也包括一些被确认在成本而非费用中的服务器、人力等成本。
3)由Temu产生的营销推广费用,运营管理人员支出,平台开发等则记入对应的费用支出当中。
基于以上的财务确认规则,结合第三方机构声称Temu在四季度GMV约为$80~90亿之间,按85(GMV)* 7.1 (汇率)* 45% (收入比重),毛算出Temu本季的收入大约是260亿。剔除Temu的增量收入,主站和多多买菜的交易性收入大约同比增长58%,和广告收入的增速是基本匹配的。可见按我们的测算,拼多多本季402亿的交易性收入,远没有乍看之下那么惊人,大体是符合调研显示的经营情况的。
而对于Temu价值的判断上,无法否认Temu的确贡献了非常可观收入。但我们对纯跨境电商模式的规模天花板其实并不乐观,且海外监管也似乎是个不可能绕过的问题。粗略来说,我们认为Temu中期内价值的上限不会超过小几百元美金。相比之下主站近2000亿美金的价值,属于“添头”而非“正菜”。
小时候可帅了00
03-22
小时候可帅了00
我很期待$拼多多(PDD)$的未来发展,相信它一定会让我们刮目相看
一朵绿草
03-22
一朵绿草
$拼多多(PDD)$作为中概股,确实面临一些估值压力
超越666888
03-23
超越666888
阅
竺正明
03-23
竺正明
888
马莲
03-23
马莲
1
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精彩评论
1)由于Temu目前主要是全托管模式,确认收入的口径应当是“前端售价 – 商品供货价”的部分,即销售的毛利润被全部确认为Temu的收入,其中也包括了少量消费者支付的物流费用。结合调研,研粗略估算,Temu确认收入占GMV的比重大约在40%~50%之间。
2)而Temu确认成本的口径则应当是以履约物流费用为主,同时可能也包括一些被确认在成本而非费用中的服务器、人力等成本。
3)由Temu产生的营销推广费用,运营管理人员支出,平台开发等则记入对应的费用支出当中。
基于以上的财务确认规则,结合第三方机构声称Temu在四季度GMV约为$80~90亿之间,按85(GMV)* 7.1 (汇率)* 45% (收入比重),毛算出Temu本季的收入大约是260亿。剔除Temu的增量收入,主站和多多买菜的交易性收入大约同比增长58%,和广告收入的增速是基本匹配的。可见按我们的测算,拼多多本季402亿的交易性收入,远没有乍看之下那么惊人,大体是符合调研显示的经营情况的。
而对于Temu价值的判断上,无法否认Temu的确贡献了非常可观收入。但我们对纯跨境电商模式的规模天花板其实并不乐观,且海外监管也似乎是个不可能绕过的问题。粗略来说,我们认为Temu中期内价值的上限不会超过小几百元美金。相比之下主站近2000亿美金的价值,属于“添头”而非“正菜”。