结论：
3月不降息（别想了），仍然坚持今年有三次降息（这个月hold), 但警惕通胀风险，释放鸽派的信号（没啥鹰派），市场共识是6月开始降息，DOTPLOT（点阵图）年内降息2~3次，但仍有可能减少降息次数。
昨天的FOMCstatement:
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
就业市场强，失业率低，总体通胀可控，经济预期乐观。
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
仍然坚定维持通胀2%，有效就业的目标。并认为现在对于就业市场和通胀的进展是积极的。然而经济前景仍然有不确定性，尤其是通胀风险。
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
决定维持现有的fed fund rate,在 5.25~5.5%的区间。直到委员会确信通胀能持续往2%下降，才会释放更明确降息路径。同时会持续缩表（减少国债, 市政债券和MBS相关的资产）。
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
官话，咱会看劳动力市场状况/通胀压力以及通胀期望等。
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
美联储的经济预测：
1）预测值仅供参考
2）PCE通胀：2024年为2.5%（12月为2.4%），2025年为2.1%（不变），2026年为2.0%（不变），长期为2.0%（不变）；
3）实际GDP增速：2024年增长1.7%（12月为1.4%），2025年增长1.8%（不变），2026年增长1.9%（不变），长期增长1.8%（不变）；
4）失业率：2024年为4.1%（与12月相比不变），2025年为4.1%（不变），2026年为4.1%（不变），长期为4.1%（不变）；
5）PCE核心通胀：2024年为2.5%（12月为 2.4%），2025年为2.2%（不变），2026年为2.0%（不变）。
来看下美联储的点阵图：
1）对于总降息路径还是有下降趋势的，这点要注意。
2）因3月“不降息”几成定局，市场将重点关注19名FOMC官员对未来利率水平预测的最新点阵图（dot plot）。
3）美联储将在2024年降息3次、在2025年降息4次、在2026年降息3次，此后再在“某个时点”降息两次，将长期联邦基金利率水平降至2.5%左右的水平。
4）美联储认为该水平是既不促进、也不限制经济增长的“中性”利率。
5）进一步探究可以发现，在12月点阵图的基础上，如果再有两名FOMC成员表态转鹰，那么对2024年的降息次数就会减至2次。
有70%的可能在6月开始降息，这是现在的市场共识。
交易员预计美联储在3月和5月维持利率水平不变的可能性分别为99%和90.8%，预计美联储有55.2%的可能在6月降息。
关于总体的交易意见：
1）金价股价双多头是市场重点。
2）做空经济泡沫为时尚早，享受泡沫ride with bubble
3) Mag 7 市值将持续往上飙升，美股市场将更集中，潜在也会放大后续调整的风险。
4）随着美股走强，流动性会逐渐成为问题，银行间风险将是重点关注对象。
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