沃金大通
03-08
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@价值投资为王:
苹果连续下跌,机会or风险?
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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f170cde377e72bb0dd4a4579d4352dd\" tg-width=\"1842\" tg-height=\"894\"></p>\n<p>苹果这是怎么了?</p>\n<p>从近期的消息面来看,苹果遭遇两重利空,一是此前欧盟对苹果处以约20亿美元罚款,称iPhone给音乐流媒体应用开发商制定了不公平的规则。</p>\n<p>这笔罚款是欧盟有史以来最大的反垄断处罚之一,市场担忧两者之间的较量刚刚开始。</p>\n<p>二是根据市场调研机构Counterpoint Research最新公布的中国智能手机市场每周销量追踪报告显示,2024年前六周中国智能手机市场整体销量与去年同期相比下跌了7%,其中苹果同比大跌了24%,华为则同比大涨了64%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2df80e7f898d526d88b3d79ab551731\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"328\"></p>\n<p>科技巨头被监管机构处以重罚并非新鲜事,2017年6月27日,欧盟曾对谷歌开出27亿美元的罚单,理由是存在违反欧盟竞争监管规定的行为。</p>\n<p>这笔罚单打破了欧盟于2009年开出的10.6亿欧元罚款的纪录。</p>\n<p>从股价上看,这笔罚款对谷歌的影响几乎为0: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e1aa230d382e9f2765866f9b5bd246\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"894\"></p>\n<p>之所以监管机构的处罚对股价影响不大,背后的逻辑是罚款为一次性事件,不会改变公司的基本面。</p>\n<p>因此,纵使欧盟最终处罚了苹果,对股价的影响并不大。</p>\n<p>苹果在中国区销量下滑,确实令人担忧,但大中华区只贡献了苹果17.4%的收入,同时,华为对苹果的冲击也局限在中国,其他区域并不受影响:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc7c6378c2f36abe713aefa96180773\" tg-width=\"1308\" tg-height=\"630\"></p>\n<p>但可惜的是,苹果在其他区域的表现也并不好,根据分析师的预测,今年一季度,苹果在美洲的收入增速预计为0.1%,较上一季2.3%的增长明显放缓;欧洲的收入增速预计为下滑6.2%,远低于上一季9.8%的增长;日本的收入增速预计为下滑12.3%,而上一季为增长15%;亚洲及其他区域预计收入增速为下滑9.9%,上一季为增长6.6%;相反,分析师预计大中华区营收增速为下滑7.5%,好于上一季下滑12.9%的幅度:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8bce2e46a9819e46ff89eb6ea7d9fd8\" tg-width=\"1384\" tg-height=\"628\"></p>\n<p>由此来看,苹果业绩疲软并非中国区销售不振,其他国家也面临同样的问题,背后的原因或与高通胀、世界经济萎靡及苹果产品吸引力下滑有关。</p>\n<p>无论什么原因,苹果过去几个季度的业绩并不好,营收增速维持在0%附近:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02274f51be080becad2b3189f4312a81\" tg-width=\"1317\" tg-height=\"586\"></p>\n<p>虽然收入疲软,但苹果的股价在去年大涨48%,市盈率一度达到33倍,逼近2020年牛市时高点,纵使在连续下跌之后,苹果的市盈率依然高达26.5倍:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0273378187f74e2c48a12267b7da2cb\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"630\"></p>\n<p>估值高企、业绩萎靡,这样的组合,下跌本就理所应当,欧美罚款、华为冲击只不过加速了这一进程。</p>\n<p>面对下跌,苹果应对的招数还得是回购,毕竟苹果新推出的Vision Pro难堪大任,放弃造车之后,苹果也缺乏重磅产品的预期。</p>\n<p>除了回购,苹果能指望的仅剩AI手机和AI PC能够带一波换机潮,可惜,按照苹果的惯例,新机发布在9月,AI PC的进程或许快一点,但考虑到杀手级的应用还没有出来,AI手机和PC的概念只能起到炒作的作用。</p>\n<p>苹果止跌怕是要等到估值回到合理状态了,至少26.5倍的估值不算便宜,你觉得呢?</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>在美股突飞猛进之时,曾经的股王苹果却连续下挫,年内跌幅高达11.64%,远远跑输纳斯达克6.18%的涨幅,更落后于微软、英伟达、谷歌等科技巨头: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f170cde377e72bb0dd4a4579d4352dd\" tg-width=\"1842\" tg-height=\"894\"></p>\n<p>苹果这是怎么了?</p>\n<p>从近期的消息面来看,苹果遭遇两重利空,一是此前欧盟对苹果处以约20亿美元罚款,称iPhone给音乐流媒体应用开发商制定了不公平的规则。</p>\n<p>这笔罚款是欧盟有史以来最大的反垄断处罚之一,市场担忧两者之间的较量刚刚开始。</p>\n<p>二是根据市场调研机构Counterpoint Research最新公布的中国智能手机市场每周销量追踪报告显示,2024年前六周中国智能手机市场整体销量与去年同期相比下跌了7%,其中苹果同比大跌了24%,华为则同比大涨了64%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2df80e7f898d526d88b3d79ab551731\" tg-width=\"862\" tg-height=\"328\"></p>\n<p>科技巨头被监管机构处以重罚并非新鲜事,2017年6月27日,欧盟曾对谷歌开出27亿美元的罚单,理由是存在违反欧盟竞争监管规定的行为。</p>\n<p>这笔罚单打破了欧盟于2009年开出的10.6亿欧元罚款的纪录。</p>\n<p>从股价上看,这笔罚款对谷歌的影响几乎为0: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> </p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2e1aa230d382e9f2765866f9b5bd246\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"894\"></p>\n<p>之所以监管机构的处罚对股价影响不大,背后的逻辑是罚款为一次性事件,不会改变公司的基本面。</p>\n<p>因此,纵使欧盟最终处罚了苹果,对股价的影响并不大。</p>\n<p>苹果在中国区销量下滑,确实令人担忧,但大中华区只贡献了苹果17.4%的收入,同时,华为对苹果的冲击也局限在中国,其他区域并不受影响:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cc7c6378c2f36abe713aefa96180773\" tg-width=\"1308\" tg-height=\"630\"></p>\n<p>但可惜的是,苹果在其他区域的表现也并不好,根据分析师的预测,今年一季度,苹果在美洲的收入增速预计为0.1%,较上一季2.3%的增长明显放缓;欧洲的收入增速预计为下滑6.2%,远低于上一季9.8%的增长;日本的收入增速预计为下滑12.3%,而上一季为增长15%;亚洲及其他区域预计收入增速为下滑9.9%,上一季为增长6.6%;相反,分析师预计大中华区营收增速为下滑7.5%,好于上一季下滑12.9%的幅度:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8bce2e46a9819e46ff89eb6ea7d9fd8\" tg-width=\"1384\" tg-height=\"628\"></p>\n<p>由此来看,苹果业绩疲软并非中国区销售不振,其他国家也面临同样的问题,背后的原因或与高通胀、世界经济萎靡及苹果产品吸引力下滑有关。</p>\n<p>无论什么原因,苹果过去几个季度的业绩并不好,营收增速维持在0%附近:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02274f51be080becad2b3189f4312a81\" tg-width=\"1317\" tg-height=\"586\"></p>\n<p>虽然收入疲软,但苹果的股价在去年大涨48%,市盈率一度达到33倍,逼近2020年牛市时高点,纵使在连续下跌之后,苹果的市盈率依然高达26.5倍:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0273378187f74e2c48a12267b7da2cb\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"630\"></p>\n<p>估值高企、业绩萎靡,这样的组合,下跌本就理所应当,欧美罚款、华为冲击只不过加速了这一进程。</p>\n<p>面对下跌,苹果应对的招数还得是回购,毕竟苹果新推出的Vision Pro难堪大任,放弃造车之后,苹果也缺乏重磅产品的预期。</p>\n<p>除了回购,苹果能指望的仅剩AI手机和AI PC能够带一波换机潮,可惜,按照苹果的惯例,新机发布在9月,AI PC的进程或许快一点,但考虑到杀手级的应用还没有出来,AI手机和PC的概念只能起到炒作的作用。</p>\n<p>苹果止跌怕是要等到估值回到合理状态了,至少26.5倍的估值不算便宜,你觉得呢?</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p></p></body></html>","text":"在美股突飞猛进之时,曾经的股王苹果却连续下挫,年内跌幅高达11.64%,远远跑输纳斯达克6.18%的涨幅,更落后于微软、英伟达、谷歌等科技巨头: $苹果(AAPL)$ $微软(MSFT)$ 苹果这是怎么了? 从近期的消息面来看,苹果遭遇两重利空,一是此前欧盟对苹果处以约20亿美元罚款,称iPhone给音乐流媒体应用开发商制定了不公平的规则。 这笔罚款是欧盟有史以来最大的反垄断处罚之一,市场担忧两者之间的较量刚刚开始。 二是根据市场调研机构Counterpoint Research最新公布的中国智能手机市场每周销量追踪报告显示,2024年前六周中国智能手机市场整体销量与去年同期相比下跌了7%,其中苹果同比大跌了24%,华为则同比大涨了64%: 科技巨头被监管机构处以重罚并非新鲜事,2017年6月27日,欧盟曾对谷歌开出27亿美元的罚单,理由是存在违反欧盟竞争监管规定的行为。 这笔罚单打破了欧盟于2009年开出的10.6亿欧元罚款的纪录。 从股价上看,这笔罚款对谷歌的影响几乎为0: $谷歌(GOOG)$ 之所以监管机构的处罚对股价影响不大,背后的逻辑是罚款为一次性事件,不会改变公司的基本面。 因此,纵使欧盟最终处罚了苹果,对股价的影响并不大。 苹果在中国区销量下滑,确实令人担忧,但大中华区只贡献了苹果17.4%的收入,同时,华为对苹果的冲击也局限在中国,其他区域并不受影响: 但可惜的是,苹果在其他区域的表现也并不好,根据分析师的预测,今年一季度,苹果在美洲的收入增速预计为0.1%,较上一季2.3%的增长明显放缓;欧洲的收入增速预计为下滑6.2%,远低于上一季9.8%的增长;日本的收入增速预计为下滑12.3%,而上一季为增长15%;亚洲及其他区域预计收入增速为下滑9.9%,上一季为增长6.6%;相反,分析师预计大中华区营收增速为下滑7.5%,好于上一季下滑12.9%的幅度: 由此来看,苹果业绩疲软并非中国区销售不振,其他国家也面临同样的问题,背后的原因或与高通胀、世界经济萎靡及苹果产品吸引力下滑有关。 无论什么原因,苹果过去几个季度的业绩并不好,营收增速维持在0%附近: 虽然收入疲软,但苹果的股价在去年大涨48%,市盈率一度达到33倍,逼近2020年牛市时高点,纵使在连续下跌之后,苹果的市盈率依然高达26.5倍: 估值高企、业绩萎靡,这样的组合,下跌本就理所应当,欧美罚款、华为冲击只不过加速了这一进程。 面对下跌,苹果应对的招数还得是回购,毕竟苹果新推出的Vision Pro难堪大任,放弃造车之后,苹果也缺乏重磅产品的预期。 除了回购,苹果能指望的仅剩AI手机和AI PC能够带一波换机潮,可惜,按照苹果的惯例,新机发布在9月,AI PC的进程或许快一点,但考虑到杀手级的应用还没有出来,AI手机和PC的概念只能起到炒作的作用。 苹果止跌怕是要等到估值回到合理状态了,至少26.5倍的估值不算便宜,你觉得呢?","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281327397118248","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["AAPL","GOOG","MSFT"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2120,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/281961997983832"}
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