每年5月份，初夏，在美国小镇奥马哈，沃伦巴菲特和查理芒格都会举行长达6小时的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司年会。年会上有个传统环节，由股东现场提问，巴菲特和芒格现场回答。这个环节占用了年会绝大部分时间，里面很多问题都非常有趣，包含了看待事物的方式、人生哲理、投资方法。
目前能搜罗到的伯克希尔年会问答实录，从1994到2023合共三十年，当时读的是中文翻译的版本。读完之后想再读，但我想既然再读为啥不直接读英文原版呢，于是找到了英文原版重读，同时这次做了一些精彩的摘录。当然了，其他部分也很精彩，只是我对这些摘录更有共鸣，你去读有共鸣的部分肯定是不一样的，所以推荐大家去读全文。这份问答录适合想在生活中和工作中获得长久的独立、充实、理性、愉悦的人。
人生中能找到一个品行卓越的老师，并且他还可以以某种方式深入地影响你，是一辈子最幸运的事情。沃伦巴菲特找到了本格雷厄姆，查理芒格找到了本杰明富兰克林。
以下以摘录的形式，把某个问题的原文原封不动摘录下来，然后某些段落后面加上我自己的感想。
————
“Don’t need interest rate outlook to value companies”WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 1.CHRISTOPHER DAVIS: Hello, I’m Christopher Davis from New York City.I’m interested in that many of the holdings of Berkshire are in industries that are perceived as interest rate-sensitive industries, including Wells Fargo, Salomon, Freddie Mac, even GEICO. And yet you have an admitted sort of ambivalence towards interest rates or changes in interest rates.And it therefore seems that you don’t feel that those changes affect the fundamental attractiveness of those businesses.I thought maybe you could share your thoughts on what you see in these businesses that the investment community as a whole is ignoring.WARREN BUFFETT: Well, the value of every business, the value of a farm, the value of an apartment house, the value of any economic asset, is 100 percent sensitive to interest rates, because all you are doing in investing is transferring some money to somebody now in exchange for what you expect the stream of money to be, to come in, over a period of time. And the higher interest rates are, the less that present value is going to be.So every business, by its nature, whether it’s Coca-Cola or Gillette or Wells Fargo, is in its intrinsic valuation, is a hundred percent sensitive to interest rates.问题是关于基准利率对公司的影响。公司估值本质上就是把未来所有的现金流折现到现在，那么这里面对未来现金流估计得准不准确，还有折现率多少就是关键。对未来估计得准不准确就看你对公司是不是足够了解，对这门生意是不是足够熟悉；而折现率实际上就是基准利率再加上一个自己认为对公司未来收入风险预估得来的一个利率，可能是基准利率再加上2%-9%（暂且称为风险利率，这部分是主观的）。那么从公司估值的角度来看，基准利率上升实际上对所有公司都有影响。但如果对某家公司的未来现金流入没有一定的把握，超出了自己的能力圈，就不应该尝试对它进行估值。单单这一条往往就可以筛选掉95%以上的公司。Now, the question as to whether a Wells Fargo or a Freddie Mac or whatever it may be, whether their business gets better or worse internally, as opposed to the valuation process, because of higher interest rates, that is not easy to figure.I mean, GEICO, if they write their insurance business at the same underwriting ratio — in other words they have the same loss and expense experience relative to premiums — they benefit by higher interest rates, obviously, over time, because they’re a float business, and the float is worth more to them.但GEICO一家保险公司，其中最重要的是可以利用免费的浮存金，实际上保险公司综合费率如果是小于100%，那么这些浮存金甚至还是负利息的资金（相当于银行借钱给你，同时还付利息给你）。如果这时候基准利率下降，则保险浮存金的优势会减少。简单地把这个理解成，向银行借钱和浮存金的成本做对比就行。银行的基准利率越高浮存金就越有优势，反之亦然。Now, externally, getting back to the valuation part, the present value of those earnings also becomes less then.But the present value of Coke’s earnings becomes less in a higher interest rate environment.Wells Fargo, it’s — whether they earn more or less money under any given interest rate scenario is hard to figure. There may be one short-term effect and there may be another long-term effect.So I do not have to have a view on interest rates — and I don’t have a view on interest rates — to make a decision as to an insurance business, or a mortgage guarantor business, or a banking business, or something of the sort, relative to making a judgment about Coke or Gillette.应该来说，巴菲特买公司的时候不太关心这家公司是不是对利率敏感，利率对公司的影响很复杂。应该只专注于是不是看得懂这家公司的生意模式，能不能对这家公司未来产生的现金流有一定把握，看不看得到二十年后这家公司的市场竞争地位。Charlie?CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ve got nothing to add.
精彩评论