伯克希尔1994年年会问答精选(3)

技术清教徒
2023-12-30

每年5月份,初夏,在美国小镇奥马哈,沃伦巴菲特和查理芒格都会举行长达6小时的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司年会。年会上有个传统环节,由股东现场提问,巴菲特和芒格现场回答。这个环节占用了年会绝大部分时间,里面很多问题都非常有趣,包含了看待事物的方式、人生哲理、投资方法

目前能搜罗到的伯克希尔年会问答实录,从1994到2023合共三十年,当时读的是中文翻译的版本。读完之后想再读,但我想既然再读为啥不直接读英文原版呢,于是找到了英文原版重读,同时这次做了一些精彩的摘录。当然了,其他部分也很精彩,只是我对这些摘录更有共鸣,你去读共鸣的部分肯定是不一样的,所以推荐大家去读全文。这份问答录适合想在生活中和工作中获得长久的独立、充实、理性、愉悦的人。

人生中能找到一个品行卓越的老师,并且他还可以以某种方式深入地影响你,是一辈子最幸运的事情。沃伦巴菲特找到了本格雷厄姆,查理芒格找到了本杰明富兰克林。

以下以摘录的形式,把某个问题的原文原封不动摘录下来,然后某些段落后面加上我自己的感想。

————

“We’d rather buy an entire company, but stocks offer more bargains”

WARREN BUFFETT: Zone 3.

AUDIENCE MEMBER: Mr. Buffett, Mr. Munger, last year — I’m Tim Medley from Jackson, Mississippi — last year the question was asked about your preference for purchasing entire businesses versus parts of public companies.

You mentioned you prefer to buy private businesses because of the tax advantages and your attraction to the people in those businesses.

Are you finding today that there are better purchases within the private market versus in the public securities market?

WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would answer that no.

We do not — we very seldom find something to buy on a negotiated basis for an entire business. We have certain size requirements. A big limiting factor is it has to be something we can understand. I mean, that eliminates 95 percent of the businesses.

And we don’t pay any attention to them, but we get lots of proposals for things that just are totally outside the boundaries of what we’ve already said we’re interested in.

We prefer to buy entire businesses, or 80 percent or greater interest in businesses, partly for the tax reasons you mentioned, and frankly, we like it better. We just, it’s the kind of business we would like to build if we had our absolute druthers on it.

Counter to that is we can usually get more for our money in wonderful businesses, in terms of buying little pieces of them in the market, because the market is far more inefficient in pricing businesses than is the negotiated market.

问题是问巴菲特是不是更倾向于购买私人公司,而不是上市公司。巴菲特说如果能买下一家私人公司超过80%的股权,就可以作为伯克希尔子公司上缴利润从而避免分红税。那么就节省了一道税钱,这是购买私人公司的优势。但是往往公开市场上的上市公司价格波动更加不理性,所以在购买估值方面可能会有便宜可以捡,这是购买公开上市公司的优势。不过由于在公开市场上流通的股份有限,所以只能买到公司很小一部分的股份。另外,对于好的公司肯定拥有的股份越多越好,情况允许的情况下最好是全部拥有。所以,私人公司可以全部拥有,但是公开市场往往有折扣,两者各有利弊。

You’re not going to buy any bargains, and I mean, you shouldn’t even approach the idea of buying a bargain in a negotiated purchase.

You want to buy it from people who are going to run it for you. You want to buy it from people who are intelligent enough to price their business properly, and they are. I mean, that’s the way things are.

这里说到一个关键,卖公司给你的往往是企业主,这些企业主对于公司价值往往会有一个比较合理的估值,所以在购买私人公司的时候根本不应该期望对方会以一个多么诱人的折扣价卖给你。最好是合理就好,行就行,不行就不行,不要讲价。因为这个人以后还会继续运营这家公司的,如果这个人以一个不理性的折扣卖给你,那说明他考虑资本问题的时候不够成熟,那你觉得他还能继续胜任这份工作吗?也就是说,一个好的CEO往往对投资也是很在行的。投资,说白了就是去估计某个生意的价值,然后决定今天花多少钱去买这个生意。而CEO每天的工作就是思考怎么做能让公司赚更多的钱,然后决定在哪里花钱。异曲同工。

The market does not do that. The market — in the stock market, you get a chance to buy businesses at foolish prices, and that is why we end up with a lot of money in marketable securities.

If we absolutely had our choice, we would own a group of — we would own three times the number of businesses we own outright.

We’re unlikely to get that opportunity over time, but periodically we’ll get the chance to find something that fits our test.

And in between we will, when the market offers us the right prices, we will buy more, either businesses we already own pieces of, or we’ll buy one or two new ones. Something’s usually going on.

There are tax advantages to owning all of them, but that’s more than offset by the fact that you’ll never get a chance to buy the whole Coca-Cola Company or the whole Gillette company.

I mean, businesses like that, sensational businesses, are just not available. Sometimes you get a chance to make a sensible purchase in the market of such businesses.

Charlie?

CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think that’s exactly right. And if you stop to think about it, if a hundred percent of a business is for sale, you’ve got — the average corporate buyer is being run by people who have the mindset of people buying with somebody else’s money. And we have the mindset of people buying with our own money.

And there’s also a class of buyers for a hundred percent of businesses who are basically able and assured financial promoters. I’m talking about the leveraged buyout funds and so on.

And those people tend to have the upside, but not the downside, in the private arrangements they’ve made with their investors. And naturally, they tend to be somewhat optimistic.

And so we have formidable competition when we try and buy a hundred percent of businesses.

WARREN BUFFETT: Most managers are better off, in terms of their personal equation, if they’re running something larger. And they’re also better off if they’re running something larger and more profitable.

But the first condition alone will usually leave them better off. We’re only better off if we’re running something that’s more profitable. We also like it if it’s larger, too.

绝大部分公司的高管都很痴迷于扩大规模去并购,并购后会增加他们的薪酬,所以他们有天然的动力去买买买。但实际上这个事儿到底赚不赚钱,对现在的股东是不是有益处,是好是坏都是几年后的事情了,这时高管们的收入已经落袋为安了。这是激励机制出了问题。

But our equation, actually, our personal equation is actually different than a great many managers in that respect. Even if that didn’t operate, I think most managers psychically would enjoy running something larger. And if you can pay for it with other people’s money, I mean, that gets pretty attractive.

You know, how much would — and let’s just say you’re a baseball fan — well, how much would you pay to own whatever your hometown, the Yankees?

You might pay more if you were writing a check on someone else’s bank account than if you were writing it on your own. It’s been known to happen. (Laughter)

And in corporate America, animal spirits are there. And those are our competitors on buying entire businesses. In terms of buying securities, most managers don’t even think about it.

花自己的钱和花别人的钱(各种基金)去买公司的心态也是不一样的,花别人的钱去买东西你可能不介意买得贵一些,但是花自己的钱每一分都会很珍惜。这里说到伯克希尔在购买私人公司的时候,好机会越来越少的原因,别人的出价往往更高。但对于投资回报率来说,很明显买得贵不如买得便宜的,这就是让别人替你花钱的代价(代理成本)。

It’s very interesting to me, because they’ll say that — they’ll have somebody else manage their money in terms of portfolio securities. Well, all that is is a portfolio of businesses.

And I’ll say, “Well, why don’t you pick out your own portfolio?” And they’ll say, “That’s much too difficult.”

And then some guy will come along with some business that they never heard of a week before and give them some figures and a few projections, and the guy thinks he knows enough to buy that business. It’s very puzzling to me sometimes.

免责声明:上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点,不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白
发表看法