许愿百万美金
2023-12-11
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@美股解毒师:
备受关注的12月FOMC:冷水泼定了?
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For Longer”到底有多“Longer”。</p><p>从CME的利率交易来看,市场押注2024年全年降息5次(每次25bps),并且从3月就开始降息。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fadafa3a711141321a3b7978592234da\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"343\"></p><p>而过去一个月,长端美债收益率快速从5%快速降至4.2%,成为包括美债、股市、黄金、加密货币等资产表现的主要推动力。 <a data-mention-id=\"TLT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"TMF\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"UBT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBT\">$债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多(UBT)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"TMV\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMV\">$3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion(TMV)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"GBTC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"比特币基金\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBTC\">$比特币基金(GBTC)$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33159b638647185efbd28d9f6206ca7a\" tg-width=\"1770\" tg-height=\"771\"></p><p>那么,12月FOMC会议,美联储可能会有怎样的表态呢?</p><p>我们预计:</p><p><strong><span style=\"color:#E67E23;\" class=\"color-mark\">1、不再加息,维持目前的利率水平,与市场预期一致;</span></strong></p><p><strong><span style=\"color:#E67E23;\" class=\"color-mark\">2、上调2023年底GDP增长预测,并下调通胀(主要是核心PCE预期);</span></strong></p><p><strong><span style=\"color:#E67E23;\" class=\"color-mark\">3、同时暗示2024年的降息预期,点阵图上2-3次,可能存在分歧;</span></strong></p><p>但是按照鲍威尔每次都给自己“着补”的节奏来看,可能会在“鸽派”的Statement之上,增加对市场“敲打”的鹰派发言,比如:降息时机尚不成熟,软着陆概率加大并向着政策的预期发展,效果仍需耐心等待更多数据,当前市场计入了过多降息预期等等。</p><p>数据上,美国Q3-Q4经济数据显示出放缓,但是仍有韧性。</p><p><strong>一方面,消费者情绪、制造业PMI、制造业生产和就业等出现负面的放缓。</strong>另一方面,刚出炉的11月非农数据仍然超预期,劳动力市场也稳健且健康。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"United States Unemployment Rate\" title=\"United States Unemployment Rate\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98c738e8cb0cc7de0bdf05d3507488c\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>United States Unemployment Rate</span></p><p>时薪环比增速反弹至,也很值得关注(与罢工谈判结束、实质性加薪有关)。</p><p>此外,油价持续下跌,也让大宗商品整体承压,与能源相关的价格持续下滑。核心商品、酒店、机票等价格疲软影响。因此,本周公布的CPI以及核心CPI可能会进一步放缓。</p><p>市场预期为3.1%,实际可能会更低。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"United States Inflation Rate\" title=\"United States Inflation Rate\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85635ac170666d74a3cb09f82c2ccfda\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>United States Inflation Rate</span></p><p>因此美债收益率本周可能会出现先跌后涨的趋势。</p><p>长端美债收益率的回落,主要是期限溢价和实际利率回落的驱动,与短期利率关系并不是很大,因此也要关注年底新发美债的情况。</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周将迎来FOMC的12月会议,年度最后一次毫无悬念的悬念将揭晓。加息是肯定到头了,市场只是在赌美联储的“Higher For Longer”到底有多“Longer”。</p><p>从CME的利率交易来看,市场押注2024年全年降息5次(每次25bps),并且从3月就开始降息。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fadafa3a711141321a3b7978592234da\" tg-width=\"724\" tg-height=\"343\"></p><p>而过去一个月,长端美债收益率快速从5%快速降至4.2%,成为包括美债、股市、黄金、加密货币等资产表现的主要推动力。 <a data-mention-id=\"TLT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"TMF\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMF\">$3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"UBT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBT\">$债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多(UBT)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"TMV\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TMV\">$3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion(TMV)$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"GBTC\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"比特币基金\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GBTC\">$比特币基金(GBTC)$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33159b638647185efbd28d9f6206ca7a\" tg-width=\"1770\" tg-height=\"771\"></p><p>那么,12月FOMC会议,美联储可能会有怎样的表态呢?</p><p>我们预计:</p><p><strong><span style=\"color:#E67E23;\" class=\"color-mark\">1、不再加息,维持目前的利率水平,与市场预期一致;</span></strong></p><p><strong><span style=\"color:#E67E23;\" class=\"color-mark\">2、上调2023年底GDP增长预测,并下调通胀(主要是核心PCE预期);</span></strong></p><p><strong><span style=\"color:#E67E23;\" class=\"color-mark\">3、同时暗示2024年的降息预期,点阵图上2-3次,可能存在分歧;</span></strong></p><p>但是按照鲍威尔每次都给自己“着补”的节奏来看,可能会在“鸽派”的Statement之上,增加对市场“敲打”的鹰派发言,比如:降息时机尚不成熟,软着陆概率加大并向着政策的预期发展,效果仍需耐心等待更多数据,当前市场计入了过多降息预期等等。</p><p>数据上,美国Q3-Q4经济数据显示出放缓,但是仍有韧性。</p><p><strong>一方面,消费者情绪、制造业PMI、制造业生产和就业等出现负面的放缓。</strong>另一方面,刚出炉的11月非农数据仍然超预期,劳动力市场也稳健且健康。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"United States Unemployment Rate\" title=\"United States Unemployment Rate\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f98c738e8cb0cc7de0bdf05d3507488c\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>United States Unemployment Rate</span></p><p>时薪环比增速反弹至,也很值得关注(与罢工谈判结束、实质性加薪有关)。</p><p>此外,油价持续下跌,也让大宗商品整体承压,与能源相关的价格持续下滑。核心商品、酒店、机票等价格疲软影响。因此,本周公布的CPI以及核心CPI可能会进一步放缓。</p><p>市场预期为3.1%,实际可能会更低。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img alt=\"United States Inflation Rate\" title=\"United States Inflation Rate\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85635ac170666d74a3cb09f82c2ccfda\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>United States Inflation Rate</span></p><p>因此美债收益率本周可能会出现先跌后涨的趋势。</p><p>长端美债收益率的回落,主要是期限溢价和实际利率回落的驱动,与短期利率关系并不是很大,因此也要关注年底新发美债的情况。</p></body></html>","text":"本周将迎来FOMC的12月会议,年度最后一次毫无悬念的悬念将揭晓。加息是肯定到头了,市场只是在赌美联储的“Higher For Longer”到底有多“Longer”。 从CME的利率交易来看,市场押注2024年全年降息5次(每次25bps),并且从3月就开始降息。 而过去一个月,长端美债收益率快速从5%快速降至4.2%,成为包括美债、股市、黄金、加密货币等资产表现的主要推动力。 $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares(TLT)$ $3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion(TMF)$ $债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多(UBT)$ $3倍做空20年期以上美国国债ETF-Direxion(TMV)$ $比特币基金(GBTC)$ 那么,12月FOMC会议,美联储可能会有怎样的表态呢? 我们预计: 1、不再加息,维持目前的利率水平,与市场预期一致; 2、上调2023年底GDP增长预测,并下调通胀(主要是核心PCE预期); 3、同时暗示2024年的降息预期,点阵图上2-3次,可能存在分歧; 但是按照鲍威尔每次都给自己“着补”的节奏来看,可能会在“鸽派”的Statement之上,增加对市场“敲打”的鹰派发言,比如:降息时机尚不成熟,软着陆概率加大并向着政策的预期发展,效果仍需耐心等待更多数据,当前市场计入了过多降息预期等等。 数据上,美国Q3-Q4经济数据显示出放缓,但是仍有韧性。 一方面,消费者情绪、制造业PMI、制造业生产和就业等出现负面的放缓。另一方面,刚出炉的11月非农数据仍然超预期,劳动力市场也稳健且健康。 United States Unemployment Rate 时薪环比增速反弹至,也很值得关注(与罢工谈判结束、实质性加薪有关)。 此外,油价持续下跌,也让大宗商品整体承压,与能源相关的价格持续下滑。核心商品、酒店、机票等价格疲软影响。因此,本周公布的CPI以及核心CPI可能会进一步放缓。 市场预期为3.1%,实际可能会更低。 United States Inflation Rate 因此美债收益率本周可能会出现先跌后涨的趋势。 长端美债收益率的回落,主要是期限溢价和实际利率回落的驱动,与短期利率关系并不是很大,因此也要关注年底新发美债的情况。","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/250965562302680","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":[".IXIC","QQQ","SPY",".SPX",".DJI","CLmain","GLD","GCmain","TQQQ","SQQQ","US2Y.BOND","US30Y.BOND","US10Y.BOND","UBT","GBTC","TMF","TLT","TMV"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1521,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":27,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/251086683627816"}
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