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2023-11-09
很好
@价值投资为王:
理想的估值很低了,但未来的关键看2点!
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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611d8de66024370af85b73b5f12f4d6c\" tg-width=\"1221\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p>营收暴增主要是汽车销售火爆,三季度合计销售105108辆,同比大增286%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1335b465b633eb98d54f728099f586e\" tg-width=\"1434\" tg-height=\"679\"></p>\n<p>在销量提升带来规模效应及电池成本下降下,三季度毛利率为22%,环比提升0.2个百分点,净利率持平上个季度,同为8.1%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb381e56b177a44f6527626c173b2247\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"541\"></p>\n<p>8.1%的净利率或许不是理想的终点,传统燃油车丰田的净利率能达到9%,考虑到汽车智能化带来的盈利能力提升,理想还有上升空间。</p>\n<p>按照当前的分析师预测,2024年理想的收入将达到1790亿人民币,若净利率保持在8.1%,净利润有望达到145亿,按当前2849亿的市值算,市盈率不过19.6倍。</p>\n<p>考虑到理想的增速较高,这样的估值极具安全垫。</p>\n<p>但理想股价能否暴涨并不在于估值,而在于纯电车型能否成为爆款,以及在大型增程式SUV竞争激烈之下保持住销量增长势头。</p>\n<p>目前,根据理想的业绩指引,四季度的交付量在125000-128000辆之间,取中值126500计算,已知10月销量为40422辆,则推算出11-12月月均销量在43039辆左右,月度销量将再创历史新高。</p>\n<p>公司预计四季度营收在384.6-393.8亿之间,中值较去年同期增长120.5%,超出分析师一致预期的365.8亿。</p>\n<p>2023年的销量无忧,但随着华为问界新M7车型热销,理想所在的增程式SUV赛道的竞争越来越激烈,预计2024年将有更多竞争车型上市。此前,同为造车新势力的小鹏和蔚来在激烈的竞争之下,一度遭遇销量恶化,理想能否抗住竞争压力,犹未可知。</p>\n<p>另外,理想不同于蔚来和小鹏聚焦于纯电路线,走的是增程式混动,但明眼人都知道,增程只是汽车电动化过渡路线,未来胜负的关键在于纯电竞争。</p>\n<p>三季报中,理想宣布其旗下首款5C纯电超级旗舰车型理想MEGA进展顺利,将于今年12 月正式发布,明年2月开启交付,该车型能否热销将对股价产生重大影响。</p>\n<p>因此,理想在超预期财报发布之后,盘前股价一度上涨近7%,但涨幅很快收窄至2.9%,考虑到三季度交付数据是明牌,加上10月销量已经突破4万大关,因此,超预期的三季报给投资者带来的冲击并不震撼,更多刺激还需要财报会上管理层有没有令人振奋的消息发布,敬请关注北京时间晚上8点的电话会议。</p>\n<p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$理想汽车-W(02015)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p>刚刚,理想发布了三季报,业绩优秀!</p>\n<p>具体来看,三季度营收346.8亿人民币,同比暴增271.2%,超过分析师预期的337.4亿:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/611d8de66024370af85b73b5f12f4d6c\" tg-width=\"1221\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p>营收暴增主要是汽车销售火爆,三季度合计销售105108辆,同比大增286%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1335b465b633eb98d54f728099f586e\" tg-width=\"1434\" tg-height=\"679\"></p>\n<p>在销量提升带来规模效应及电池成本下降下,三季度毛利率为22%,环比提升0.2个百分点,净利率持平上个季度,同为8.1%:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb381e56b177a44f6527626c173b2247\" tg-width=\"1123\" tg-height=\"541\"></p>\n<p>8.1%的净利率或许不是理想的终点,传统燃油车丰田的净利率能达到9%,考虑到汽车智能化带来的盈利能力提升,理想还有上升空间。</p>\n<p>按照当前的分析师预测,2024年理想的收入将达到1790亿人民币,若净利率保持在8.1%,净利润有望达到145亿,按当前2849亿的市值算,市盈率不过19.6倍。</p>\n<p>考虑到理想的增速较高,这样的估值极具安全垫。</p>\n<p>但理想股价能否暴涨并不在于估值,而在于纯电车型能否成为爆款,以及在大型增程式SUV竞争激烈之下保持住销量增长势头。</p>\n<p>目前,根据理想的业绩指引,四季度的交付量在125000-128000辆之间,取中值126500计算,已知10月销量为40422辆,则推算出11-12月月均销量在43039辆左右,月度销量将再创历史新高。</p>\n<p>公司预计四季度营收在384.6-393.8亿之间,中值较去年同期增长120.5%,超出分析师一致预期的365.8亿。</p>\n<p>2023年的销量无忧,但随着华为问界新M7车型热销,理想所在的增程式SUV赛道的竞争越来越激烈,预计2024年将有更多竞争车型上市。此前,同为造车新势力的小鹏和蔚来在激烈的竞争之下,一度遭遇销量恶化,理想能否抗住竞争压力,犹未可知。</p>\n<p>另外,理想不同于蔚来和小鹏聚焦于纯电路线,走的是增程式混动,但明眼人都知道,增程只是汽车电动化过渡路线,未来胜负的关键在于纯电竞争。</p>\n<p>三季报中,理想宣布其旗下首款5C纯电超级旗舰车型理想MEGA进展顺利,将于今年12 月正式发布,明年2月开启交付,该车型能否热销将对股价产生重大影响。</p>\n<p>因此,理想在超预期财报发布之后,盘前股价一度上涨近7%,但涨幅很快收窄至2.9%,考虑到三季度交付数据是明牌,加上10月销量已经突破4万大关,因此,超预期的三季报给投资者带来的冲击并不震撼,更多刺激还需要财报会上管理层有没有令人振奋的消息发布,敬请关注北京时间晚上8点的电话会议。</p>\n<p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02015\">$理想汽车-W(02015)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"刚刚,理想发布了三季报,业绩优秀! 具体来看,三季度营收346.8亿人民币,同比暴增271.2%,超过分析师预期的337.4亿: 营收暴增主要是汽车销售火爆,三季度合计销售105108辆,同比大增286%: 在销量提升带来规模效应及电池成本下降下,三季度毛利率为22%,环比提升0.2个百分点,净利率持平上个季度,同为8.1%: 8.1%的净利率或许不是理想的终点,传统燃油车丰田的净利率能达到9%,考虑到汽车智能化带来的盈利能力提升,理想还有上升空间。 按照当前的分析师预测,2024年理想的收入将达到1790亿人民币,若净利率保持在8.1%,净利润有望达到145亿,按当前2849亿的市值算,市盈率不过19.6倍。 考虑到理想的增速较高,这样的估值极具安全垫。 但理想股价能否暴涨并不在于估值,而在于纯电车型能否成为爆款,以及在大型增程式SUV竞争激烈之下保持住销量增长势头。 目前,根据理想的业绩指引,四季度的交付量在125000-128000辆之间,取中值126500计算,已知10月销量为40422辆,则推算出11-12月月均销量在43039辆左右,月度销量将再创历史新高。 公司预计四季度营收在384.6-393.8亿之间,中值较去年同期增长120.5%,超出分析师一致预期的365.8亿。 2023年的销量无忧,但随着华为问界新M7车型热销,理想所在的增程式SUV赛道的竞争越来越激烈,预计2024年将有更多竞争车型上市。此前,同为造车新势力的小鹏和蔚来在激烈的竞争之下,一度遭遇销量恶化,理想能否抗住竞争压力,犹未可知。 另外,理想不同于蔚来和小鹏聚焦于纯电路线,走的是增程式混动,但明眼人都知道,增程只是汽车电动化过渡路线,未来胜负的关键在于纯电竞争。 三季报中,理想宣布其旗下首款5C纯电超级旗舰车型理想MEGA进展顺利,将于今年12 月正式发布,明年2月开启交付,该车型能否热销将对股价产生重大影响。 因此,理想在超预期财报发布之后,盘前股价一度上涨近7%,但涨幅很快收窄至2.9%,考虑到三季度交付数据是明牌,加上10月销量已经突破4万大关,因此,超预期的三季报给投资者带来的冲击并不震撼,更多刺激还需要财报会上管理层有没有令人振奋的消息发布,敬请关注北京时间晚上8点的电话会议。 $理想汽车(LI)$ $理想汽车-W(02015)$ $小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ $蔚来(NIO)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/239608364187680","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["XPEV","NIO","02015","LI","09866","09868"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1722,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/239674206048488"}
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