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@躺平指数：经济是复苏了吗？财报季进行中，包括阿里、京东、百度、快手、美团、网易以及唯品会、爱奇艺、哔哩哔哩、腾讯音乐、猫眼等在内的互联网平台均已发布2023年二季度业绩，业绩都非常好，尤其前几个大厂一个比一个利润高，同比大增。有人就问了，说好的经济衰退呢，这不是都复苏了吗？诚然，你要说吃喝玩乐相关的服务型行业复苏是合理的，今年的实际消费状况表现得也很明显，但是电商平台都增长了啊！ why？通过我们的各项政策及经济表象也看得出，整个经济都在去杠杆，收缩资产负债表，房地产行业首当其冲，老百姓上赶着提前还房贷更是当前市场上的一个极具代表性的行为。那么，其实工业制造业也一样。工业制造业企业也在去杠杆去库存，去库存没有给供给端创造太多增量，而电商之间的厮杀内卷纯属内耗，无非你多点我少点，你少点我多点的增速区别。当然从整个GDP来看，还是有增幅的，只是去库存占大头，产能目前完全打不满，效益远不如疫情前甚至是疫情期间。因此，互联网、文娱复苏，更多跟吃喝玩乐有关，真正大件耐用品、汽车、住房消费还是弱的。这才是问题的关键。$美团-W(03690)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $拼多多(PDD)$

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